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Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins
No full textIn climate-change studies, a macroscale hydrologic model (MHM) operating over large scales can be an important tool in developing consistent hydrological variability estimates over large basins. MHMs, which can operate at coarse grid resolutions of about 1° latitude by longitude, have been used previously to study climate change impacts on the hydrology of continental scale or global river basins. They can provide a connection between global atmospheric models and water resource systems on large spatial scales and long timescales. In this study, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) MHM is used to study large scale hydrologic impacts of climate change for Indian river basins. Large-scale changes in runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for India, as well as station-scale changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics are examined in this study. Climate model projections for meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) from three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios are used to drive the VIC MHM. GCM projections are first interpolated to a 1° by 1° hydrologic model grid and then bias-corrected using a quantile-quantile mapping. The VIC model is able to reproduce observed statistics for discharges in the Ganga, Narmada and Krishna basins reasonably well, even at the coarse grid resolution employed using a calibration period for years 1965-1970 and testing period from 1971-1973/1974. An increasing trend is projected for summer monsoon surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in most central Indian river basins, whereas a decrease in runoff and soil moisture is projected for some regions in southern India, with important differences arising from GCM and scenario variability. Discharge statistics show increases in mid-flow and low flow at Farakka station on Ganga River, increased high flows at Jamtara station upstream of Narmada, and increased high, mid-flow and low flow for Vijayawada station on Krishna River in the future
Characterization of carbonaceous aerosols over Delhi in Ganga basin: Seasonal variability and possible sources
No full textThe mass concentration of carbonaceous species, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC) using a semicontinuous thermo-optical EC-OC analyzer, and black carbon (BC) using an Aethalometer were measured simultaneously at an urban mega city Delhi in Ganga basin from January 2011 to May 2012. The concentrations of OC, EC, and BC exhibit seasonal variability, and their concentrations were ∼2 times higher during winter (OC 38.1 ± 17.9 μg m−3, EC 15.8 ± 7.3 μg m−3, and BC 10.1 ± 5.3 μg m−3) compared to those in summer (OC 14.1 ± 4.3 μg m−3, EC 7.5 ± 1.5 μg m−3, and BC 4.9 ± 1.5 μg m−3). A significant correlation between OC and EC (R = 0.95, n = 232) indicate their common emission sources with relatively lower OC/EC ratio (range 1.0–3.6, mean 2.2 ± 0.5) suggests fossil fuel emission as a major source of carbonaceous aerosols over the station. On average, mass concentration of EC was found to be ∼38 % higher than BC during the study period. The measured absorption coefficient (babs) was significantly correlated with EC, suggesting EC as a major absorbing species in ambient aerosols at Delhi. Furthermore, the estimated mass absorption efficiency (σabs) values are similar during winter (5.0 ± 1.5 m2 g−1) and summer (4.8 ± 2.8 m2 g−1). Significantly high aerosol loading of carbonaceous species emphasize an urgent need to focus on air quality management and proper impact assessment on health perspective in these regions
Impact of oceanic processes on the life cycle of severe cyclonic storm "Jal"
No full textThe cyclonic system "Jal" initiated as a depression in the South China Sea on 31st of October, 2010, and propagated westward into the Bay of Bengal (BoB). In line with the forecast, it developed into a "severe cyclonic storm" by 5th November. It was predicted to intensify further to a "very severe cyclonic storm" and hit the east coast of India; however, it dramatically diminished to a "cyclonic storm" prior to the landfall. The best possible physical parameterizations in a numerical atmospheric model fail to simulate the intensity of Jal sytem. The analysis of satellite derived ocean surface properties revealed that the propagating Jal system encountered distinct oceanic environments in the eastern and western BoB and these have great impact on the intensity changes undergone by the system. The intense precipitation (from July to October, 2010) and the convergence associated with a downwelling coastal Kelvin wave preconditioned the eastern BoB with thick barrier layer and high cyclone heat potential (CHP) that enabled the Jal system to gradually reach a stage of severe-cyclonic-storm. However, the system encountered a region of shallow thermocline with low CHP associated with an upwelling eddy in the western BoB, which influenced the movement of the system and alleviated its intensity to cyclonic-storm. In the western BoB, even though the precipitation freshened the surface layer, the divergence associated with upwelling eddy weakened the barrier layer formation and stratification
Seasonal prediction of distinct climate anomalies in summer 2010 over the tropical Indian Ocean and South Asia
Get PDFThe characteristics and predictability of climate anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and South Asian region during the boreal summer (June-July-August) of 2010 are investigated on the basis of atmospheric regional model simulations and five forecasts obtained from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center coupled models. The robust features of summer 2010 are the basin-wide TIO warming and enhanced (suppressed) rainfall over the north Indian Ocean and maritime continent (head Bay of Bengal and parts of monsoon trough region). Our regional atmospheric model experiments corroborate that rainfall over South Asia was mostly determined by the TIO sea surface temperature (SST) warming during summer 2010. Most of the coupled models and their multi-model ensemble (MME) used in this study successfully predict the robust features over the TIO and/or South Asian region with 01 May 2010 initial condition. The positive rainfall anomalies over the west coast of India, southern Peninsular India, and central Bay of Bengal are qualitatively well predicted by the MME. Suppressed rainfall over the northeast Bay of Bengal associated with the northwestward extension of the northwest Pacific ridge is also reasonably predicted by the MME. On the other hand, the MME has a moderate skill in predicting positive rainfall anomalies over the convective zone of southeast TIO due to weak local SST warming. Further, the coupled models and their MME fail to predict the anomalous positive rainfall in northern Pakistan because of their inability in predicting mid-latitude circulation anomalies. This study reveals that the predictive skill of rainfall and circulation anomalies during summer 2010 over the TIO and South Asia is largely attributable to the Indian Ocean basin-wide warming during the decay phase of El Niño. These results indicate that the accurate simulation of the TIO SST by coupled models is critical in determining the 2010 South Asian summer monsoon rainfall
On understanding the land-ocean CO2 contrast over the Bay of Bengal: A case study during 2009 summer monsoon
No full textShip-based observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) between 17 July 2009 and 17 Aug 2009 offered an excellent opportunity to evaluate the land-ocean contrast of surface CO2 and facilitated its comparison with model simulated CO2 concentrations. Elevated values of CO2 with large variability near the coastal region and relatively low values with correspondingly lower variability over the open ocean suggest that this observed CO2 variability over the ocean essentially captures the differences in terrestrial and oceanic CO2 fluxes. Although the region under investigation is well known for its atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon during July and August, the limited duration of observations performed from a moving ship in a research cruise, is not able to capture any high-frequency variability of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. But band-passed sea surface temperature and wind anomalies do indicate strong intraseasonal variability over the study region during the observational period. The synoptic data, albeit quite short in duration, thus offer a clear benchmark for abrupt variability of CO2 concentration between land and ocean
Imprint of cyclone Phailin on water quality of Chilika lagoon
Get PDFThe very severe cyclonic storm Phailin, a category-5 hurricane, was developed over the north of Andaman and Nicobar
Islands on 9 October 2013. Subsequently, it propagated towards north-northwest and made landfall at the Gopalpur coast, Odisha on 12 October1. Chilika lagoon, the largest brackish water lagoon in Asia, is in close proximity to Gopalpur
Improved simulation of Indian summer monsoon in latest NCEP climate forecast system free run
No full textSimulation of Indian summer monsoon features by latest coupled model of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEPs) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is attempted in its long run. Improvements in the simulation of Indian summer monsoon as compared with previous version (CFSv1) is accessed and areas which still require considerable refinements are introduced. It is found that, spatial pattern of seasonal mean rainfall and wind circulations are more realistic in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1. Variance and northward propagation of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which also contribute to the seasonal mean rainfall are remarkably improved. However, the central Indian dry bias still persists and amplified. Pervasive cold bias in surface (2m air temperature) as well as in the whole troposphere is further increased in CFSv2. These cold biases may be partly attributed to the lack of model's ability to realistically simulate the ratio of convective and stratiform rainfall. Sea-surface temperature (SST) over the Indian Ocean is underestimated in CFSv2. However, CFSv1 shows east-west dipole structure in the bias. The teleconnection of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in terms of Niño3 SST and monsoon rainfall correlation is more realistic in the latest version of the model. Overall, there are substantial improvements in CFSv2 as compared with CFSv1, but it has to evolve further to realistically simulate the mean and variability of ISMR
Interannual variability of surface air-temperature over India: Impact of ENSO and Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature
No full textInterannual variability of the seasonal surface air-temperature over the Indian subcontinent is investigated using observations for the period of 1900–2005. Our results demonstrate that air-temperature over India is remotely influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and locally through Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The leading mode of variability (EOF-1, empirical orthogonal function) in the observed air-temperature displays a country-wide warming in all four seasons. The spatial pattern of EOF-1 is similar to that of composite air-temperature anomalies of warm/cold years. Above-normal air-temperature in India (country-wide warming) is positively correlated to a simultaneous El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific during boreal summer. El Niño induced strong subsidence, weaker low-level winds, less moisture availability and enhanced incoming shortwave radiation over the north Indian Ocean and Indian subcontinent are responsible for air-temperature warming in summer. It is observed that during fall, air-temperature pattern of EOF-1 over India is highly correlated with SST over the tropical oceans. SST correlation is maximum in central Pacific and north Indian Ocean, indicating the importance of both remote and local forcing. During boreal spring and winter, air-temperature warming (EOF-1) is mainly influenced by Indian Ocean SST anomalies. Low moisture and negative sea level pressure anomalies over India indicate the existence of heat low with strong dry winds convergence, which are favourable for air-temperature warming in spring. Although El Niño peaks during winter, its impact on the air-temperature over the Indian subcontinent is weak during this season. The second EOF mode shows dipole-like air-temperature pattern with warming over the south-east and cooling in the north-western India during summer and winter, whereas spring shows opposite polarity. In case of boreal fall, EOF-2 of air-temperature displays a south-west and north-east orientation. Mechanisms responsible for these variabilities are studied in detai
Epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of tropical Indian Ocean warming associated with El Nino
No full textThe epochal changes in the seasonal evolution of El Niño induced tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming in the context of mid-1970s regime shift is investigated in this study. El Niño induced warming is delayed by one season in the northern TIO during epoch-2 (post mid-1970) and southern TIO during epoch-1 (pre mid-1970). Significant spatiotemporal changes in TIO (especially in the north) warming are apparent during the developing phase of El Niño. The ocean dynamics is the major driver in the basin wide warming during epoch-2 whereas heat fluxes are the dominant processes during epoch-1. Strong coupling between thermocline and sea surface temperature (SST) in epoch-2 indicates that El Niño induced oceanic changes are very significant in the seasonal evolution of basin-wide warming. The thermocline-SST coupling is strengthened by the upward propagating subsurface warming in epoch-2. The westward propagating barrier layer over southern TIO supports persistence of warm SST (over southwest TIO in epoch-2), which in turn induce spring asymmetric mode in winds and precipitation. The asymmetric wind pattern and persistent subsidence over maritime continent are primarily responsible for stronger spring warming in epoch-2. The strong east equatorial Indian Ocean cooling in epoch-2 is mainly driven by coastal upwelling over Java–Sumatra coast, whereas in epoch-1 the weak cooling is controlled by the latent heat flux. The spatiotemporal changes in TIO SST warming and their evolution have strong impact on atmospheric circulation and rainfall distribution over the Indian Oceanic rim through local air–sea interacti
Daily composite wind fields from Oceansat-2 scatterometer
No full textOceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) is an active microwave sensor, intended to provide ocean surface wind vectors over the global oceans. In the present work, an attempt has been made to generate daily composites of OSCAT Level-3 (L3) wind vectors using Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis (DIVA) method from ascending and descending passes over the Indian Ocean region. This could be useful for operational purposes and in generating value-added products like wind stress and curl of wind stress. The daily composite wind vectors of zonal (U) and meridional (V) components have been validated by comparing with Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) and wind from in situ buoys for the year 2012. Wind composites thus generated using DIVA are found to match well with in situ, and ASCAT wind products. Minor deviations are observed with respect to ASCAT wind, which could be attributed to the difference in interpolation techniques used for the two scatterometer products. Given that the repeat period of ASCAT is 5 days and that of OSCAT is only 2 days, OSCAT wind products could be conveniently used for real-time met-ocean studies