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Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices
Get PDFInterannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July–September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August–September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon seaso
Assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon
No full textSeveral aspects of real-time forecast of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in 3–4 pentad lead time (extended range) are discussed in this study to explore the operational capability of the Climate Forecast System model version 2 (CFSv2) developed by National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). 2013 summer monsoon was a near excess monsoon year in terms of seasonal mean and was a result of rich diversity of phenomena including strong intraseasonal variations and intense northward propagations over the Indian region. Eleven-member forecasts were made at every 5-day interval during the June–September monsoon season which included monsoon onset and withdrawal phases. The ensemble members were created by perturbing the initial conditions at each start time. In addition to the CFSv2 forecasts, we also carried out forecasts using the atmospheric-only component (GFSv2) forced with CFSv2-derived sea surface temperature (SST) subjected to a bias correction based on historical observations (GFSbc runs).
Both the CFSv2 and GFSbc runs were able to predict the progression of ISM over the Indian region and the subsequent intraseasonal oscillations (active and break phases). The analysis for an extreme event (Uttarakhand flood) and monsoon revival (MR) towards the end of the season was also performed. Comparison between the two runs shows that active and break spells were predicted with good fidelity over the Indian region, though GFSbc outperforms CFSv2 on several occasions. Thus, improvement of the operational monsoon forecast over Indian region using NCEP CFSv2 requires better representation of air–sea interaction and mean states of ocean
Sources and elemental composition of summer aerosols in the Larsemann Hills (Antarctica)
No full textAtmospheric aerosols play a major role in the global climate change. A better physical characterization of the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols, especially in remote atmosphere, is an important step to reduce the current uncertainty in their effect on the radiative forcing of the climate. In the present work, surface aerosols have been studied over the Southern Ocean and over Bharati, Indian Research Station at Larsemann Hills at the Antarctic coast during the summer season of 2009–2010. Aerosol samples were collected using optical particle counter (OPC) and high-volume air sampler. PM10 and PM2.5 aerosol samples were analyzed for various water-soluble and acid-soluble ionic constituents. The Hysplit model was used to compute the history of the air masses for their possible origin. Supplementary measurements of meteorological parameters were also used. The average mass concentration for PM10 over the Southern Ocean was found to be 13.4 μg m3. Over coastal Antarctica, the mass of PM10 was 5.13 μg m−3, whereas that of PM2.5 was 4.3 μg m−3. Contribution of marine components, i.e., Na, Cl and Mg was dominant over the Southern Ocean (79 %) than over the coastal Antarctica where they were dominant in coarse mode (67 %) than in fine mode (53 %) aerosols. The NH4/nss-SO4 ratio of 1.12 in PM2.5 indicates that the NH4 and SO4 ions were in the form of NH4HSO4. Computation of enrichment factors indicate that elements of anthropogenic origin, e.g., Zn, Cu, Pb, etc., were highly enriched with respect to crustal composition
On the possible cause of distinct El Niño types in the recent decades
No full textDistinct El Niño types have been observed in the recent decades with warm anomalies in the eastern Pacific (Canonical El Niño, EL) and central Pacific (El Niño Modoki, EM). Among these, a basinwide tropical Pacific (TP) warming is seen during 2009 and recently during 2014. We carried out data analysis and numerical simulation experiments to understand the possible cause for different El Niño flavours. The results reveal that the co-evolution of ocean-atmospheric conditions are critically important. Stronger boreal spring (Mar-May) through summer (June-September) westerly wind anomalies (WWA), with relatively stronger ocean pre-conditioning can lead to EL, weaker ocean pre-conditioning and weaker WWA can generate EM, while stronger ocean preconditioning and weaker WWA can lead to basinwide warming pattern. The strength of the WWA is crucial in determining the strength of the ocean dynamic response and the thermocline displacements in the Pacific. The study has important implications for understanding the nature of El Niño in advance
Evolution and sub-surface characteristics of a sea-surface temperature filament and front in the northeastern Arabian Sea during November-December 2012
No full textWe used satellite-derived sea-surface-temperature (SST) data along with in-situ data collected along a meridional transect between 18.85 and 20.25°N along 69.2°E to describe the evolution of an SST filament and front during 25 November to 1 December in the northeastern Arabian Sea (NEAS). Both features were ~100km long, lasted about a week, and were associated with weak temperature gradients (~0.07°Ckm-1). The in-situ data were collected first using a suite of surface sensors during a north-south mapping of this transect and showed the existence of a chlorophyll maximum within the filament. This surface data acquisition was followed by a high-resolution south-north CTD (conductivity-temperature-depth) sampling along the transect. In the two days that elapsed between the two in-situ measurements, the filament had shrunk in size and moved northward. In general, the current direction was northwestward and advected these mesoscale features. The CTD data also showed an SST front towards the northern end of the transect. In both these features, the chlorophyll concentration was higher than in the surrounding waters. The temperature and salinity data from the CTD suggest upward mixing or pumping of water from the base of the mixed layer, where a chlorophyll maximum was present, into the mixed layer that was about 60m thick. A striking diurnal cycle was evident in the chlorophyll concentration, with higher values tending to occur closer to the surface during the night. The in-situ data from both surface sensors and CTD, and so also satellite-derived chlorophyll data, showed higher chlorophyll concentration, particularly at sub-surface levels, between the filament and the front, but there was no corresponding signature in the temperature and salinity data. Analysis of the SST fronts in the satellite data shows that fronts weaker than those associated with the filament and the front had crossed the transect in this region a day or two preceding the sampling of the fron
Assessment of Tsunami Hazard Vulnerability along the coastal environs of Andaman Islands
No full textThe December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake emphasized consistent and comprehensive assessment of areas that are prone to the hazard of Tsunami. It also focused attention on the hazards that could be posed by large subduction zone earthquakes and the Tsunamis that could be further generated. Due to the extremely high vulnerability in the Andaman Islands in South East India, it is essential for planners to develop a comprehensive a priori information database in order to minimize the impact of these destructive situations. A similar effort has been done in this study wherein the entire Andaman Islands have been assessed to target "Tsunami Hazard Vulnerable areas" in accordance with the maximum wave run-up heights and topography. These areas have been extracted from the total area keeping in mind the run-up wave heights on the very day of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, i.e., on December 26, 2004. Also, the topographic variations in the region have been studied to establish a relation between the vulnerability of an area and its topography. The hazard of Tsunami puts at threat, the lives of approximately 314,084 people over an area of 5,833.1 km2 in the Andaman Islands. Out of the total area, 708.8 km2 is the hazardous portion which is 12.1 . The islands have experienced a total of 386 earthquakes (above 5.0 magnitude) from the time of Sumatra-Andaman Tsunami till the end of 2009. These statistics clearly indicate the need for hazard preparedness and planning in order to minimize impact during unfortunate circumstances. This study thus aims at the preparation of Tsunami Hazard Vulnerability Map for the Andaman Islands which can be further used by administrative and disaster mitigation organizations as and when required
Nitrogen uptake rates and f-ratios in the Equatorial and Southern Indian Ocean
Get PDFWe report data on nitrate, ammonium and urea uptake rates from the Equatorial and Southern Indian Oceans. Productivity (0.81–2.23 mmol N m–2 d–1) over the Equatorial Indian Ocean was low, but the f-ratio (0.13–0.45) was relatively high. In the Southern Indian Ocean total N-uptake rate varied from 1.7 to 12.3 mmol Nm–2 d–1; it was higher in the Antarctic coast (69S) and lower over most of the Southern Ocean, the lowest being at 58S. The f-ratio also showed significant spatial variation, but was higher compared to values at the Equatorial Indian Ocean. The mean f-ratio in the Southern Indian Ocean was 0.50. The nitrate-specific uptake rates and f-ratios appear to have increased significantly in the recent past relative to earlier estimates. While productivity in the Southern Ocean is comparable to that in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, higher f-ratios in the former underscore its importance in the uptake of CO
Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error
No full textA detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5–L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation and the India Meteorological Department precipitation dataset respectively for L3. Despite significant El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spring predictability barrier at L3, the ISMR skill score is highest at L3. Further, large scale zonal wind shear (Webster–Yang index) and SST over Niño3.4 region is best at L1 and L0. This implies that predictability aspect of ISMR is controlled by factors other than ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. Also, the model error (forecast error) outruns the error acquired by the inadequacies in the initial conditions (predictability error). Thus model deficiency is having more serious consequences as compared to the initial condition error for the seasonal forecast. All the model parameters show the increase in the predictability error as the lead decreases over the equatorial eastern Pacific basin and peaks at L2, then it further decreases. The dynamical consistency of both the forecast and the predictability error among all the variables indicates that these biases are purely systematic in nature and improvement of the physical processes in the CFSv2 may enhance the overall predictabilit
Spatio-temporal distribution of chlorophyll-a in relation to physico-chemical parameters in coastal waters of the northwestern Bay of Bengal
No full textThe present study focuses on understanding the long-term distribution of physico-chemical parameters and their influence on the distribution of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) at a coastal site in the northwestern Bay of Bengal. Chl-a showed large variability (0.12 to 10.05 mg mâ3) on a spatio-temporal scale during the study period. However, the distribution showed a similar pattern with marginal variability from March 2010 to February 2011 and March 2011 to February 2012. The vertical distribution of salinity, pH, total suspended matter (TSM) and chl-a showed systematic temporal variability. However, dissolved oxygen (DO) and nutrients (nitrite + nitrate, phosphate, silicate) did not show any significant spatio-temporal trend. Chl-a showed bimodal distribution on an annual scale, with the first peak appearing during the pre-monsoon period in March due to a seasonal phytoplankton bloom, whereas the second peak occurring during September as a result of nutrient loading from river influx due to monsoonal precipitation. Factor analysis revealed the association of low salinity and high nutrients with chl-a. This infers that the nutrients brought by the influx of river into the study area were fuelling the growth and abundance of phytoplankton. Cluster analysis resulted in two distinct clusters among all physico-chemical datasets, indicating the presence of two distinct areas separated by the 30 m isobath that were strongly influenced by physico-chemical characteristics associated with the seasonal monsoon
Characterization of the Seasonal Circulation Patterns and Its Application on Oil Spill Transport in the Northwestern Continental Shelf of India
No full textWe implemented the Princeton Ocean Model to study the seasonal circulation patterns in the Gulf of Khambhat and surrounding oceans on the northwestern continental shelf of India. Simulated currents are used in General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment to track a past oil spill event in this region. The model's performance is evaluated against the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and in situ measurements. Mean currents, computed by subtracting tidal components from the simulated currents, are used together with satellite images of Chlorophyll-a to describe spatial patterns of the circulation. Mean-flow patterns inside the gulf are characterized with strong along-channel flow during southwest monsoon and spring seasons, which are weak during winter and autumn seasons. On the proximity of the gulf mouth currents are northwestward throughout the year except the southwest monsoon when the circulations are southwestward. Coastal boundary currents parallel to the 60Â m isobath are prominent during the inter-monsoon and weak during the monsoon periods. Slope currents, near the shelf-break, are strong during southwest monsoon and spring periods. Numerical experiments suggest that ocean current is the main driver of the net transport of spilled oil in this region and other factors such as direct wind drift play negligible role