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Aerosol types and radiative forcing estimates over East Asia
No full textUsing the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite data sets along with the CSIRO-MK 3.6.0 model simulations, we analyzed the aerosol optical depth (AOD) variability during March–May (MAM), June–August (JJA) along with their annual mean variability over East Asia for the period 2006–2012. The CALIPSO measurements correlated well with the MODIS measurements and the CSIRO-MK 3.6.0 model simulations over the spatial distribution patterns of the aerosols, but CALIPSO underestimated the magnitudes of the AOD. Maximum smoke aerosol loading is observed to occur during JJA, as a result of wind transport from Southern China while dust loading dominated during MAM via the transport from desert region. The vertical distribution profiles revealed that there is uniform distribution of smoke aerosols during both MAM and JJA, only differing at the altitude at which they peak; while the dust aerosols during MAM showed a significant distribution from the surface to 10 km altitude and JJA was marked with lower dust loading at the same altitudes. Both dust and smoke aerosols warm the atmosphere in MAM but due to the absorbing nature of smoke aerosols, they cause considerable cooling at the surface which is double when compared to the dust aerosols. The top of the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) due to smoke and dust aerosols is positive in MAM which indicates warming over East Asia. During MAM a consistent declining trend of the surface ARF due to smoke aerosols persisted over the last three decades as conspicuously evidenced from model analysis; the decline is ∼10 W/m2 from 1980 to 2012
Microphysical processes and hydrometeor distributions associated with thunderstorms over India: WRF (cloud-resolving) simulations and validations using TRMM
No full textThunderstorms are one of the disastrous weather events that affect various parts of the Indian region during the pre-monsoon summer months of March–April–May (MAM). Keeping this societal impact in account, this paper has documented the vertical distribution of cloud microphysical properties and dynamical fields associated with number of thunderstorms over different thunderstorm-prone regions of India. The main objective of this study was to bring out the spatial heterogeneity in the structure of thunderstorms during MAM. In spite of being such an important weather system, the present-day skill of forecasting such systems is particularly poor. This as such prompts us to ponder whether any existing microphysical scheme is able to capture the inherent heterogeneous structure of thunderstorms over different parts of India. To find an answer to this question, the regions are divided based on pre-monsoon lightning distribution obtained from the tropical rainfall measuring mission lightning imaging sensor data. Keeping this observation in background, cloud-resolving simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Weather Model (version 3.2) along with three explicit microphysical schemes for a number of thunderstorm cases those occurred over five different regions of India. The composite structure of all thunderstorms simulated over a region is compared with observation to identify the systematic model bias. It is clearly brought out that the Thompson scheme with the present form is not able to capture different phases of thunderstorms over different parts of the country. However, WDM6 and Morrison are able to capture some of the features reasonably well, along with some degree of uncertainty. The inner structure of thunderstorms is very well brought out by contour frequency altitude diagram. This study therefore provides a framework and a basis of further modifications of WDM6 and Morrison for improving the model forecast for thunderstorms over the Indian region
Effect of mineral dust and soot aerosols on ice microphysics near the foothills of the Himalayas: A numerical investigation
No full textThis study investigates the influence of different ice nuclei (IN) species and their number concentrations on cloud ice production. The numerical simulation with different species of ice nuclei is investigated using an explicit bulk-water microphysical scheme in a Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5 (MM5). The species dependent ice nucleation parameterization that is based on the classical nucleation theory has been implemented into the model. The IN species considered include dust and soot with two different concentrations (Low and High). The simulated cloud microphysical properties like droplet number concentration and droplet effective radii as well as macro-properties (equivalent potential temperature and relative humidity) are comparable with aircraft observations. When higher dust IN concentrations are considered, the simulation results showed good agreement with the cloud ice and cloud water mixing ratio from aircraft measurements during Cloud Aerosol Interactions and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis. Relative importance of IN species is shown as compared to the homogeneous freezing nucleation process. The tendency of cloud ice production rates is also analyzed and found that dust IN is more efficient in producing cloud ice when compared to soot IN. The dust IN with high concentration can produce more surface precipitation than soot IN at the same concentration. This study highlights the need to improve the ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models
The atmospheric electrical index for ENSO modoki: Is ENSO modoki one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown?
No full textLike the southern oscillation index (SOI) based on the pressure difference between Tahiti (17.5°S, 150°W) and Darwin (12.5°S, 130°E), we propose the new atmospheric electrical index (AEI) taking the difference in the model calculated atmospheric electrical columnar resistance (Rc) which involves planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) and aerosol concentration derived from the satellite measurements. This is the first non-oceanic index capable of differentiating between the conventional and modoki La Niña and El Niño both and may be useful in the future air-sea coupling studies and as a complementary to the oceanic indices. As the PBLH variation over Darwin is within 10% of its long term mean, a strong rise in the Rc over Darwin during the modoki period supports modoki’s connection with aerosol loading. Our correlation results show that the intensity of El Niño (La Niña) event is almost independent (not independent) of its duration and the possibility of ENSO modoki being one of the factors responsible for the warming trend slowdown (WTS)
Indo-Western Pacific Ocean capacitor and coherent climate anomalies in post-ENSO summer: A review
No full textENSO induces coherent climate anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific, but these anomalies outlast SST anomalies of the equatorial Pacific by a season, with major effects on the Asian summer monsoon. This review provides historical accounts of major milestones and synthesizes recent advances in the endeavor to understand summer variability over the Indo-Northwest Pacific region. Specifically, a large-scale anomalous anticyclone (AAC) is a recurrent pattern in post-El Niño summers, spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans. Regarding the ocean memory that anchors the summer AAC, competing hypotheses emphasize either SST cooling in the easterly trade wind regime of the Northwest Pacific or SST warming in the westerly monsoon regime of the North Indian Ocean. Our synthesis reveals a coupled ocean-atmosphere mode that builds on both mechanisms in a two-stage evolution. In spring, when the northeast trades prevail, the AAC and Northwest Pacific cooling are coupled via wind-evaporation-SST feedback. The Northwest Pacific cooling persists to trigger a summer feedback that arises from the interaction of the AAC and North Indian Ocean warming, enabled by the westerly monsoon wind regime. This Indo-western Pacific ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect explains why El Niño stages its last act over the monsoonal Indo-Northwest Pacific and casts the Indian Ocean warming and AAC in leading roles. The IPOC displays interdecadal modulations by the ENSO variance cycle, significantly correlated with ENSO at the turn of the 20th century and after the 1970s, but not in between. Outstanding issues, including future climate projections, are also discussed
Near real-time determination of earthquake source parameters for tsunami early warning from geodetic observations
Get PDFExemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS) allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS), starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting
A numerical study of hypothetical storm surge and coastal inundation for AILA cyclone in the Bay of Bengal
No full textThe head Bay region bordering the Bay of Bengal is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclones. Catastrophic risks from storm surge and associated inundation are quite high due to high population density in coastal areas, socio-economic conditions, and shallow bathymetry. It features the world’s largest deltaic system comprising of ‘Sunderbans’ bordered by West Bengal and Bangladesh. In a geomorphologic sense, the head Bay region is a low-lying belt comprising several barrier islands and river drainage systems, numerous tidal creeks, and mud flats having a high risk for widespread inundation. In addition, the high tidal range together with low-lying topography leads to high risk and vulnerability from storm surge inundation. During May 2009, a severe cyclonic storm Aila struck West Bengal causing enormous destruction to life and property along coastal belts of West Bengal and Bangladesh. It was the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the past two decades that had landfall in West Bengal. This work reports on a numerical study for hypothetical storm surge and associated inundation from Aila using the ADCIRC model. The study covers a comprehensive qualitative analysis on water level elevation and onshore inundation for West Bengal and Bangladesh regions. The estimated peak storm surge was about 4 m in the Sunderban region that propagated into all major riverine systems, inundating the river banks as well the inland areas. Numerical simulations indicate an average inland penetration distance of 350 m with a maximum of 600 m at various coastal locations in West Bengal and Bangladesh. The study emphasizes the need and importance of inundation modeling system required for emergency preparedness and disaster managemen
Study of relationship between daily maxima in ozone and temperature in an urban site in India
Get PDFhe relationship between surface-level observations of daily maxima in ozone (O3max) volume mixing ratio and ambient air temperature (Tmax) has been studied at an urban site, i.e. Pune (18.4°N, 73.8°E), India during 2003-04. The mixing ratios of O3max were found to be highest during winter to pre-monsoon period and lowest in the monsoon season. The dependence of O3max levels on Tmax has been quantified using the linear regression fit for the different seasons. However, except for the monsoon season, reasonably good correlations between O3max and Tmax were noticed. The correlation between daily O3max concentration and minimum NOx (NOxmin) concentration was also studied to assess the importance of photochemical mechanism mainly reduction in the loss due to titration. Overall, the strong dependencies of O3max on Tmax and NOxmin signify the role of both meteorological and photochemical processes during most months of a year. The positive slopes of ΔO3max/ΔTmax and ΔO3max/ΔNOxmin clearly indicate the role of significant production and accumulation of O3 under high temperature and low NOx conditions respectively, during winter and premonsoon seasons. The statistical analysis of O3 in relation with the key meteorological and chemical parameters is important to understand the sensitivity of secondary pollutants on various controlling factors
Long term temperature trends at major, medium, small cities and hill stations in India during the period 1901-2013
Get PDFIndustrialization and urbanization are the most dominant causal factors for long-term changes in surface air temperatures. To examine this fact, the long term changes in the surface-air temperatures have been evaluated by the linear trend for the different periods, i.e. 1901-2013, 1901-1970 and recent period 1971-2013 as rapid industrialization was observed during the recent four decades. In the present study, seasonal and annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature data of 36 stations for the period 1901-2013 have been used. These stations are classified into 4 groups, namely major, medium, small cities and hill stations. During the period 1901-1970, less than 50% stations from each group showed a significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature, whereas in the recent period 1971-2013, more than 80% stations from all the groups except small city group showed a significant increasing trend. The minimum temperature increased faster than that of the maximum temperature over major and medium cities, while maximum temperature increased faster than the minimum temperature over the small cities and hill stations. The annual mean temperature of all the coastal stations showed a significant increasing trend and positive correlation with Precipitable Water Vapour (PWV). The effect of PWV is more pronounced on minimum temperature than that of the maximum
Dynamics of Heavy Rain Spells over India during 2005
Get PDFHigh-impact mesoscale weather events, occurring in different parts of India in all seasons, lead to major weather and climate related disasters. In view of this, an attempt has been made in the present study to understand the dynamics of atmospheric circulation over the Indian region (50˚E-100˚E and EQ-30˚N) during super active monsoon period 21st-30th June and 22nd-31st July 2005 using NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed daily winds (u and v), temperature (T) from surface to 200 hPa to compute the divergence (D),
vorticity , vertical velocity ,static stability and heat source (QH). (p) profiles clearly indicate the unstable zone between 850 to 650 hPa. The necessary condition of barotropic instability and condition of baroclinic instability are also satisfied in the layer 850- 650 hPa for all the active monsoon days. Further, zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds, are examined in the zonal (x-p) and meridional (y-p) planes. It is noticed that there exist low level cyclonic circulations in the boundary layer over major portion of the country and abnormal increase in the meridional wind in the lower and middle troposphere. Significant increase in the cyclonic vorticity upto 300
hPa and the upward motion throughout in the troposphere with maximum value around 700 to 500 hPa and positive heat source explain the possibility of highly convective and unstable mid-tropospheric zone. The study indicates that there are few mesoscale systems embedded in the synoptic scale system that are already present in the large-scale monsoon circulation