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エクアドル大統領選挙―政権継続へ真価問われるノボア大統領(論稿)
No full text2023 年 11 月 24 日にノボア政権が発足した。任期はわずか 18 カ月間と短く、2025 年 2 月 9日には次期大統領選挙が実施される。ノボア大統領は再選を果たすために、麻薬カルテルによる抗争激化で治安危機に陥るエクアドルを早急に立て直さなければならないが、電力逼迫、財政危機と様々な難題にも直面し厳しい舵取りが求められている。また、内政面では、アバド副大統領との確執が新たな火種となり政権運営に支障をきたしているほか、外交面では、警察当局がメキシコ大使館に強行突入しグラス元副大統領の身柄を拘束したことで国際社会から厳しい批判を浴びている。はたしてノボア大統領が再選され政権を継続できるのか、綱渡りの政権運営が続き、再選への道のりは決して平坦ではない。PJa/33/Ra2articl
A Theoretical Perspective on the Economic Effects of U.S.–China Trade Disputes
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000953_001This study examines the economic effects of U.S.–China trade disputes from a theoretical perspective, focusing on tariffs, trade policy uncertainty, relocation to third countries, and export restrictions. Since 2018, the U.S. and China have imposed additional tariffs and other restrictive trade measures, significantly impacting global trade dynamics. This study surveys the existing literature and develops theoretical models to evaluate the consequences of these actions. First, it analyzes the welfare effects of tariffs, emphasizing the role of tariff pass-through and trade policy uncertainty. Empirical evidence indicates a near-complete tariff pass-through, suggesting that U.S. tariffs have increased costs for domestic consumers, while offering limited protection for domestic producers. Second, this study employs a Melitz-type model to explore firm relocation patterns, showing that medium-productivity firms tend to shift production to third countries. Finally, the study investigates the effects of export restrictions and proposes a quality-sorting model to evaluate the impacts of a “maximum quality ceiling” on export products. The results indicate that such restrictions discourage R&D investments, lower product quality, and lead to resource misallocation, harming economic efficiency.technical repor
Effects of Capital Flow Management Measures on Wealth Inequality: New Evidence from Counterfactual Estimators
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000958_001We provide cross-country evidence that variations in capital flow management measures (CFMs) result in differences in wealth inequality and distribution by using counterfactual estimators for causal inference. Diverging from previous studies, we analyze the effects of ten distinct asset-specific CFMs on wealth inequality and distribution. While we obtain consistent results of aggregate CFMs with previous studies, our results of asset-specific CFMs are quite heterogeneous. Our result implies that the effects of CFMs on wealth inequality and distribution significantly depend on asset categories as well as income levels and capital flow directions.technical repor
