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チリのワチパト製鉄所閉鎖とアンチダンピング審査の構図(論稿)
No full textチリで 2023 年末から開始されていた鉄鋼アンチダンピング審査は、国内唯一の製鉄所が閉鎖となって申請者不在になり、最終判断の前に審議終了という意外な結末を迎えた。チリ中南部経済を代表する製鉄所閉鎖の影響は、労働者の雇用問題をはじめ、取引企業の存続など地域経済の広い範囲に及ぶことが見込まれている。このような帰結を招いた要因には、チリ鉄鋼産業の寡占的構造と、産業界における調整力の低さがある。本稿では、アンチダンピング審査における鉄鋼企業 2社の意思決定と交渉過程を分析するために、相互依存関係にある寡占企業を分析する標準的なツールであるゲーム理論を用いることで、協調を軽視した個別企業の利益優先の経営判断がチリ製鋼業の終焉という結果を招いたことを示す。PJa/33/Ra2articl
Repression, Co-optation, and Legitimation: Authoritarian Resilience and Youth Movement Fragmentation in Sisi’s Egypt
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000956_001This study examines how authoritarian regimes, particularly Egypt under Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, consolidate power by fragmenting and weakening social movements, especially those led by youth. Through an extensive literature review, the study highlights the regime’s reliance on repression, co-optation, and legitimation to suppress dissent and neutralize potential opposition. Targeted repression, including mass arrests and criminalizing dissent, is reinforced by selective co-optation. Selective co-optation strategically divides opposition groups and weakens their collective cohesion. The regime further strengthens its authority by promoting narratives of popular legitimacy, portraying its actions as essential for national stability and public interest. The study focuses on mechanisms used to demobilize youth-led movements. These include the state’s use of government-organized initiatives, social media campaigns, and campus surveillance designed to foster loyalty and disrupt activism. By analyzing these dynamics, this study underscores the regime’s ability to leverage institutional and structural tools to fragment dissent while projecting an image of inclusivity. This study contributes to the broader understanding of authoritarian governance and social movements in Egypt and the Arab world. It aims to provide insights into how regimes adapt to youth mobilization and revolutionary protests, highlighting the broader patterns of authoritarian resilience and suppression in the region.technical repor
The Impact of the China-U.S. Trade War on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment
No full textapplication/pdfIDP000955_001This paper examines the impact of the China-U.S. trade war on China’s outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) at the firm level. We use newly released data on the number of foreign subsidiaries of publicly listed Chinese firms up to December 2023, and construct firm-level exposure to trade-war tariffs for both outputs and inputs. Our findings indicate that higher U.S.tariffs on Chinese exports and higher Chinese tariffs on U.S. inputs have led to an increase in OFDI by Chinese firms. This effect is particularly pronounced for investments in ASEAN countries and is also evident for investments in Mexico. However, we find no increase in Chinese investment in the U.S. Overall, our results align with recent media reports suggesting that Chinese firms increasingly use third countries, particularly low-wage developing nations, as “bridges” to accessthe U.S. market following the trade war.technical repor
