Alliance One Tobacco (Malawi)
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Origin of Goods and Unequal Consumer Gains from Trade Liberalization
application/pdfIDP000939_001We introduce the origin of goods in an otherwise standard framework to study the impact of tariff reductions on household cost-of-living. Our framework distinguishes three origins: import, domestic production, and household production. We adopt this framework to estimate the unequal consumer gains from tariff reductions in Cambodia, using a unique household survey data with detailed expenditure records on goods and services from each origin. We find that richer households have larger expenditure shares on imported goods and smaller expenditure shares on home-produced goods. Price responses to tariff changes are strongest for imported goods and weak for home-produced goods. As a result, tariff reductions generate a strong pro-rich effect, with households at the 80-90 income percentile gaining 40% more than those at the 0-10 percentile. We show that ignoring origins in the cost-of-living measurement can substantially underestimate the pro-rich effects of trade liberalization. We also analyze why richer households have larger expenditure shares on imported goods and provide evidence consistent with trade models with non-homothetic preferences.technical repor
書評:Susan Hannah Allen and Amy Yuen, Bargaining in the UN Security Council: Setting the Global Agenda
PJa/33/Aj11articl
ベネズエラ大統領選挙―反チャベス派の統一候補擁立と国際的要因(論稿)
ベネズエラでは2024年7月に大統領選挙が実施される。前回2018年の大統領選挙では、反チャベス派の有力政党や政治リーダーが選挙から排除され、マドゥロ勝利のための形ばかりの非民主的な選挙が実施された。それに対して今回の選挙では、公正で民主的な大統領選挙の実施を要求する国際社会の監視と関与が強まっている。反チャベス派が予備選実施などを通して統一候補擁立を進めるのに対して、チャベス派はさまざまな妨害を行っている。公正な選挙が実施されれば反チャベス派候補の勝利が確実視されるなか、国際社会との合意内容をチャベス派がどれだけ尊重するかが選挙結果を左右する。PJa/33/Ra2articl
Eclipse: How Darkness Shapes Violence in Africa
application/pdfIDP000941_001Although darkness has long been associated with insecurity, the link remains speculative. I fill the gap by examining the effect of solar eclipses on political violence. Expanding on psychological theories, I hypothesize that eclipse-induced darkness evokes fear, which in turn is misattributed to outgroups, thereby triggering violence. I contrast this argument with a tactical explanation, suggesting that darkness allows insurgents to secretly kill civilians. I test these hypotheses by exploiting exogenous variations in the dates and locations of solar eclipses for 1997–2022 in Africa. The analysis indicates a spike in violence on the days of solar eclipses. To explore the mechanisms, I examine the initiators and original texts of violent events, weather conditions, ethnic folklore, and individual-level surveys. The analyses support the tactical rather than psychological explanation. These findings warn against assuming that “irrational” or “superstitious” African people overreacted to eclipses; insurgents rationally used darkness for their tactical purposes.technical repor