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Additional Base Acres for ARC and PLC: January 2026 Update
No full textThe goal of this policy brief is to update RaFF’s projections of expanded base acres and their allocation under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act according to the January 2026 final rule on Changes to Agriculture Risk Coverage, Price Loss Coverage, and Dairy Margin Coverage Programs
What Repeated Crop Insurance Premium Interest Deferrals Mean for Farmers
No full textPremium interest deferrals are a lesser-known financial support mechanism within the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP), temporarily waiving interest charges on unpaid producer premiums during disaster years. Originally intended as exceptional relief, these deferrals have become increasingly routine, occurring in eight of the past thirteen years and consecutively from 2019 to 2024. This study examines whether repeated deferrals have altered farmers’ crop insurance demand by shaping expectations of continued payment flexibility. Exploiting differences in premium billing schedules between spring and winter wheat, we implement an instrumented two-way fixed effects framework using county-level crop insurance data from 2015–2023. The results indicate that interest deferrals are associated with a 1.6% increase in coverage levels and a 7.4% expansion in insured acreage for spring wheat, with effects strengthening over successive deferral announcements. These findings suggest that farmers may increasingly view deferrals as a standard feature of the FCIP rather than temporary disaster relief. While deferrals provide short-term liquidity benefits, their repeated use may generate longer-term behavioral responses and increase implicit federal subsidy exposure. Policy reforms that better align premium billing with post-harvest cash flows may offer a more sustainable alternative
Achieving Universal Food Security in an Adversely Changing Climate
No full textAchieving universal food security — healthy diets for all, from sustainable food systems — will require a comprehensive investment strategy that increases food supply, enhances distribution and access, reduces food losses and waste, and improves nutrition for all, while addressing and mitigating climate change. Despite increases in agricultural productivity and a sharp reduction in the proportion of undernourished people over the past 50 years, universal food security remains elusive. About 673 million people — 8.2 percent of the world population — are undernourished, and almost three billion people cannot afford a healthy diet. Our food systems are vulnerable to climate change while contributing one third of greenhouse gas emissions. Conflict and trade disruptions further compound the challenge and undermine past successes. Yet, we are incongruously underinvesting in agricultural improvement and food systems transformation, beginning with woefully inadequate support for international agricultural research: the foundation for more productive and resilient food systems. Food security has emerged as a geopolitical priority across the Indo-Pacific region. Leaders of China, India, ASEAN nations, the Pacific, and beyond have raised alarms and are looking for actionable policies and investments. In this address, I will outline a set of practical actions that Australia could take to advance food security in the Indo-Pacific region. Stepped-up action and investment by Australia in support of agricultural research and development would be widely welcomed in the region. As a nation, we have exceptional expertise and well-established partnership models in agriculture and food security that, if better supported and deployed, could serve our collective desire for regional peace and prosperity
Economic Analysis of U.S. Agriculture and the Kyoto Protocol
No full textExecutive Summary: In this analysis, we examine the potential costs and benefits for U.S. agriculture resulting from U.S. compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. We conclude that, if proper advantage is taken of the Protocol’s flexible, market-based mechanisms, the impact on American farmers would be relatively modest. Further, we conclude that various studies purporting to demonstrate more severe impacts on farm income are flawed because they fail to take adequate account of the adjustments that farmers would make to changes in production costs. When these flaws are corrected, it becomes apparent that, even if tradable emission permit prices turned out to be a good deal higher than we project them to be, the impact on farm income would be just a fraction of what these studies estimate. Finally, we note that addressing climate change could create opportunities for farmers to supplement their income through sequestering carbon or producing biomass that can be used to make fuels, energy, and chemicals
Factors Affecting Spinach Consumption in the United States
No full textU.S. fresh-market spinach consumption has been increasing over the past few decades. Basic knowledge of the distribution of spinach consumption across different market channels, geographic regions, and population groups has been very limited in the past. Using data from USDA’s 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, this article examines the consumption distribution of fresh-market and processed spinach in the United States. The analysis indicates that per capita spinach consumption is greatest in the Northeast and West. About 80 percent of fresh-market spinach is purchased at retail and consumed at home, while 91 percent of processed spinach is consumed at home. Per capita spinach use is strongest among Asians, highest among women 40 and older, and weakest among teenage girls
Economic viability of eucalyptus production in the interior of São Paulo.
No full textWith projected growth in demand for wood in the coming decades, eucalyptus production has gained prominence in recent years, accounting for more than 70% of the planted tree area in Brazil. Small rural producers have been increasing their participation in production. The search for an investment alternative that generates profit and requires little infrastructure and labor, especially for small rural producers, motivated this study. Therefore, the main objective was to analyze the economic viability of eucalyptus cultivation in the city of São João da Boa Vista, in the interior of São Paulo state. To this end, a cash flow was prepared for a period of 14 years, the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and payback indicators were calculated, and a sensitivity analysis was performed. The economic indicators demonstrate that the installation of eucalyptus cultivation, as proposed, with stump removal and opportunity cost of land, proved unfeasible, generating no profit for the investor. With a negative NPV of R 6,802.85, an IRR of 4.55%, and a payback period of 7.82 years using simple payback and 8 years using discounted payback
Economic biomass from tilapia production in net cages on a rural property in southeastern Brazil.
No full textTechnological advancements in fish farming have allowed for increased productivity and a consequent increase in fish production. However, increased system productivity does not always result in better profitability. Economic biomass calculates the point of maximum profit based on a relevant variable. Two distinct methods are proposed: an indirect one, where biomass and inputs are a function of time; and a direct one, where biomass is a function of the system's main input: the feed used. The economic biomass in the two methods showed different figures: 173.66 kg m⁻³ for the indirect method and 153.38 kg m⁻³ for the direct method. In the indirect method, more inputs vary over time than just the feed considered by the direct method; therefore, each method can be used depending on the situation in which economic biomass is to be evaluated. In cases where more information is available about the use of inputs and biomass, the indirect method may be more suitable. On the other hand, when only feed use data as a function of biomass is available, the direct method would be the most recommended
Relationship between the cost of transporting sugarcane and distance.
No full textThis publication presents the results of a survey of the costs of cutting, loading, and transporting sugarcane production for the 2016/17 harvest in the state of São Paulo. The results showed a large disparity in values. In the Olímpia region, the cost per ton for a distance of 25 km is R 37.25. The variations in the data may be related to different variables, such as the type of terrain, road quality, fuel price in the region, labor costs, and private contracts with mills and service providers, representing possibilities for future studies
Economic viability of two hydroponic gardens in the urban area of São Paulo.
No full textHydroponics, by not using soil, allows for greater flexibility in the location of the garden, an important characteristic considering the challenges of feeding a growing population expected to reach 9 billion inhabitants by 2050. The challenge of this new reality is to bring producers, currently in rural areas, closer to consumers in large urban centers. The objective was to verify the economic viability of two hydroponic lettuce garden projects in the urban environment of the city of São Paulo. The first project considered the construction of a hydroponic garden with natural lighting on a plot of land located in a central neighborhood in the northern zone of the city of São Paulo. The project included the construction of the benches inside a greenhouse, both budgeted in the project. The second project considered the cultivation of lettuce in a shed with artificial LED lighting and several cultivation levels. The differences between the projects allowed for a comparison of the impacts of including technologies used in virtual farms on the financial results of the gardens. The study began with the definition of the location of the gardens, followed by the preparation of the cash flow, and the calculation of performance indicators. The Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and discounted payback period were calculated. An analysis was also conducted to verify the impact of adding new floors to the vertical garden. Finally, it was found that the hydroponics project with artificial lighting, despite the small area of the building considered, is feasible for implementation in an urban environment