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Forecasting the effective reproduction number during a pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, governmental decisions and economic implications
Get PDFThis research empirically identifies the best-performing forecasting methods for the Effective Reproduction Number Rt of COVID-19, the most used epidemiological parameter for policymaking during the pandemic. Furthermore, based on the most accurate forecasts for the United Kingdom, we model the excess exports and imports during the pandemic (using World Trade Organization data), while simultaneously controlling for governmental decisions, i.e., lockdown(s) and vaccination. We provide empirical evidence that the longer the lockdown lasts, the larger the cost to the economy is, predominantly for international trade. We show that imposing a lockdown leads to exports falling by 16.55% in the United Kingdom; without a lockdown, the respective decrease for the same period would be only 1.57%. On the other hand, efforts towards fast population vaccination improve the economy. We believe our results can help policymakers to make better decisions before and during future pandemics
Developing feasible person-centred care alternatives to emergency department responses for adults with epilepsy: a discrete choice analysis mixed methods study
Get PDFAccounting for extinction dynamics unifies the geological and biological histories of Indo-Australian Archipelago
Get PDFBiogeographical reconstructions of the Indo-Australian Archipelago (IAA) have suggested a recent spread across the Sunda and Sahul shelves of lineages with diverse origins, which appears to be congruent with a geological history of recent tectonic uplift in the region. However, this scenario is challenged by new geological evidence suggesting that the Sunda shelf was never submerged prior to the Pliocene, casting doubt on the interpretation of recent uplift and the correspondence of evidence from biogeography and geology. A mismatch between geological and biogeographical data may occur if analyses ignore the dynamics of extinct lineages, because this may add uncertainty to the timing and origin of clades in biogeographical reconstructions. We revisit the historical biogeography of multiple IAA taxa and explicitly allow for the possibility of lineage extinction. In contrast to models assuming zero extinction, we find that all of these clades, including plants, invertebrates and vertebrates, have a common and widespread geographic origin, and each has spread and colonized the region much earlier than previously thought. The results for the eight clades re-examined in this article suggest that they diversified and spread during the early Eocene, which helps to unify the geological and biological histories of IAA.</p
Embodiment for Spatial Metaphors of Abstract Concepts Differs Across Languages in Chinese-English Bilinguals
No full textAbstractEmbodied cognition posits that processing concepts requires sensorimotor activation. Previous research has shown that perceived power is spatially embodied along the vertical axis. However, it is unclear whether such mapping applies equally in the two languages of bilinguals. Using event‐related potentials, we compared spatial embodiment correlates in participants reporting the source of auditory words as being presented from above or below their sitting position. English bilinguals responded faster for congruent presentations of high‐power words (presented above) but not for congruent presentations of low‐power words (presented below) in both languages. Low‐power words together also failed to modulate N400 amplitude or interact with language. However, follow‐up analyses on high‐power words showed congruency effects on N400 amplitude in Chinese but not in English. Finally, English controls showed no effect. This suggests that spatial embodiment differs across languages in bilinguals, but the roles of culture and proficiency require further research
The impact of extreme heat on lake warming in China
Get PDFGlobal lake ecosystems are subjected to an increased occurrence of heat extremes, yet their impact on lake warming remains poorly understood. In this study, we employed a hybrid physically-based/statistical model to assess the contribution of heat extremes to variations in surface water temperature of 2260 lakes in China from 1985 to 2022. Our study indicates that heat extremes are increasing at a rate of about 2.08 days/decade and an intensity of about 0.03 °C/ day·decade in China. The warming rate of lake surface water temperature decreases from 0.16 °C/decade to 0.13 °C/decade after removing heat extremes. Heat extremes exert a considerable influence on long-term lake surface temperature changes, contributing 36.5% of the warming trends within the studied lakes. Given the important influence of heat extremes on the mean warming of lake surface waters, it is imperative that they are adequately accounted for in climate impact studies
Integrated distance sampling models for simple point counts
Get PDFAbstractPoint counts (PCs) are widely used in biodiversity surveys but, despite numerous advantages, simple PCs suffer from several problems: detectability, and therefore abundance, is unknown; systematic spatiotemporal variation in detectability yields biased inferences, and unknown survey area prevents formal density estimation and scaling‐up to the landscape level. We introduce integrated distance sampling (IDS) models that combine distance sampling (DS) with simple PC or detection/nondetection (DND) data to capitalize on the strengths and mitigate the weaknesses of each data type. Key to IDS models is the view of simple PC and DND data as aggregations of latent DS surveys that observe the same underlying density process. This enables the estimation of separate detection functions, along with distinct covariate effects, for all data types. Additional information from repeat or time‐removal surveys, or variable survey duration, enables the separate estimation of the availability and perceptibility components of detectability with DS and PC data. IDS models reconcile spatial and temporal mismatches among data sets and solve the above‐mentioned problems of simple PC and DND data. To fit IDS models, we provide JAGS code and the new “IDS()” function in the R package unmarked. Extant citizen‐science data generally lack the information necessary to adjust for detection biases, but IDS models address this shortcoming, thus greatly extending the utility and reach of these data. In addition, they enable formal density estimation in hybrid designs, which efficiently combine DS with distance‐free, point‐based PC or DND surveys. We believe that IDS models have considerable scope in ecology, management, and monitoring
Urban heat mitigation by green and blue infrastructure: Drivers, effectiveness, and future needs
Get PDFThe combination of urbanization and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change. Yet, the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructure (GBGI), such as parks, wetlands, and engineered greening, which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures. Despite many reviews, the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear. This systematic literature review synthesizes the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximize their benefits. After screening 27,486 papers, 202 were reviewed, based on 51 GBGI types categorized under 10 main divisions. Certain GBGI (green walls, parks, street trees) have been well researched for their urban cooling capabilities. However, several other GBGI have received negligible (zoological garden, golf course, estuary) or minimal (private garden, allotment) attention. The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens (5.0 ± 3.5°C), wetlands (4.9 ± 3.2°C), green walls (4.1 ± 4.2°C), street trees (3.8 ± 3.1°C), and vegetated balconies (3.8 ± 2.7°C). Under changing climate conditions (2070-2100) with consideration of RCP8.5, there is a shift in climate subtypes, either within the same climate zone (e.g., Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa) or across other climate zones (e.g., Dfb [continental warm-summer humid] to BSk [dry, cold semi-arid] and Cwa [temperate] to Am [tropical]). These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future. Given the importance of multiple services, it is crucial to balance their functionality, cooling performance, and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI. This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritizing effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating, filling research gaps, and promoting community resilience. [Abstract copyright: © 2024 The Author(s).
Population characteristics and predation rates of the dominant soft bodied and durophagous predators on temperate intertidal shores.
Get PDFSubstantial research exists on predation and its ecology. Most research has focused on durophagous fishes, brachyuran crabs, and lobsters. Data are lacking, however, on soft-bodied predators like anemones, and their contribution to overall levels of predation remains largely unevaluated. Here, we compared predation rates of the durophagous predator, the crab C. maenas and the soft-bodied predator, the anemone Actinia equina on 15 intertidal shores around Anglesey, north Wales, UK. We employed a novel approach to assess predation based on measuring faecal output from recently collected individuals and converting it to food consumed using absorption efficiencies (AEs) measured using potential prey species inhabiting the same shores. Anemone mean abundance was 8.21 (± 0.27, s.e.) individuals.m -2, whereas for C. maenas it was 0.23 (± 0.02, s.e.) individuals.m -2. AEs when fed mussel tissue, a polychaete worm, or a shrimp were 92.8-94.0% in C. maenas and 40.5-95.8% in A. equina. This difference in values reflected the different feeding modes of the two predators. Unexpectedly, A. equina consumed 3.5-7 times more prey than C. maenas. The consumption of larger amounts of prey by an anemone than the dominant durophagous predator has important consequences for calculating energy flows in food webs, understanding predation controls in assemblages, and potentially for wider predation trends. </p
Superlens-Assisted laser nanostructuring of Long Period optical fiber Gratings (LPGs) for enhanced refractive index sensing
Get PDFWe introduce an innovative approach to enhance refractive index sensing utilizing Long Period Optical Fiber Gratings (LPGs) processed through microsphere-assisted superlens laser nanostructuring technology. This method involves the self-assembly of a silica microsphere monolayer on the outer surface of LPGs, followed by pulsed laser irradiation to create nanoholes (with a diameter of 300–500 nm) on the surface, for forming the nanohole-structured LPGs (NS-LPGs). The sensing capabilities of NS-LPGs, featuring two different nanohole densities (5 % and 7.9 %), were experimentally evaluated in sucrose and glycerin solutions. The results revealed a notable improvement in sensitivity, with increases of 16.08 % and 19.57 %, respectively, compared to conventional LPGs. This suggests that higher nanohole density contributes to greater enhancement in refractive index sensing. Furthermore, the permanent nanohole structures showed improved durability and lifespan in various environments compared to surface-coating-based LPGs. Further enhancements can be achieved by refining the nanostructuring density and controlling the dimensions of the nanoholes
Collective effort to enhance the quality of research evidence in intellectual and developmental disabilities: a case study of an academic-practice network
Get PDFPurpose: With a historic lack of attention to synthesis methods such as systematic review and meta-analysis and a lack of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), the evidence base for behavioural interventions for children and adults who are autistic or are diagnosed with developmental disabilities is patchy. The Sharland Foundation Developmental Disabilities Applied Behavioural Research and Impact Network (SF-DDARIN), a network of like- minded researchers and practitioners across the UK, aims to address this. The purpose of this article is to describe the network's work and provide the context for the remaining articles in the special issue that exemplify network projects. Approach: In this case study paper, we describe how the SF-DDARIN works and is resourced, detailing the process used to maximise research opportunities by facilitating network members working together. We outline the progressive research steps that the SF- DDARIN has identified are needed to develop and improve the evidence base for behavioural interventions systematically and, with examples, describe how the network delivers these steps. Findings: Since its establishment in 2016, the SF-DDARIN network members have collectively worked on more than 53 projects involving over 50 researchers, had over 120 special schools contribute to projects, and have recruited over 500 participants. This has been achieved via funding from the Sharland Foundation, primarily to cover the staffing costs of a small support team and internship partnerships with external organisations. Some projects have attracted external funding.Originality: SF-DDARIN may provide an innovative, effective, and resource-efficient model for other groups seeking to develop and extend their evidence base in developmental disability research. Keywords: Evidence-based practice; developmental disabilities; behavioural interventions; research and impact. Article Classification: Research Feature <br/