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Political Preferences and Stock Markets
Get PDFThe aim of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of stock markets to election uncertainty and election shock. The analysis employs both fixed effect modelling approach and event study methodology, and utilizes a unique dataset of polling results measuring political preferences over 91 elections in EU countries. We show that election uncertainty induced by changes in political support significantly affects the volatility of stock markets in the pre-election period. Stock volatility also increases in post-election periods. We find that the difference between the outcome of the election and the expected one contributes to the magnitude of election shock, which influences stock markets. These suggest that the accuracy of pre-election polls can be used by market participants and academics as a proxy for market expectations. Our findings have also important implications for optimal investing strategies around elections and are of interest to fiscal policy makers and regulators of pollsters
Exercise testing to guide safe discharge from hospital in COVID-19: a scoping review to identify candidate tests
Get PDFOBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify exercise tests that have been validated to support a safe discharge to home in patients with or without COVID-19.STUDY DESIGN: Scoping review, using PRISMA-ScR reporting standards. Medline, PubMed, AMED, Embase, CINAHL and LitCovid databases were searched between 16 and 22 February 2021, with studies included from any publication date up to and including the search date.INTERVENTION: Short exercise tests.PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Safe discharge from hospital, readmission rate, length of hospital stay, mortality. Secondary outcomes measures: safety, feasibility and reliability.RESULTS: Of 1612 original records screened, 19 studies were included in the analysis. These used a variety of exercise tests in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, suspected pulmonary embolism and pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, heart failure or critical illness. Only six studies had examined patients with COVID-19, of these two were still recruiting to evaluate the 1 min sit-to-stand test and the 40-steps test. There was heterogeneity in patient populations, tests used and outcome measures. Few exercise tests have been validated to support discharge decisions. There is currently no support for short exercise tests for triage of care in patients with COVID-19.CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to aid clinical decision-making at discharge from hospital.</p
Firm ESG reputation risk and debt choice
Get PDFUsing a novel sample covering 3783 US public firms from 2007 to 2020, we examine how negative media coverage of firm-level environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices affects a firm's debt choice. We find that firms with higher ESG reputation risk rely more on public bond than bank loan. The social and governance components, in particular, matter. Moreover, firms that receive more negative news coverage display a higher propensity to issue new bonds as opposed to securing new bank debt. Overall, our study presents empirical evidence on the relation between firm ESG reputation risk and debt financing
VIEWS AND EXPERIENCES OF CHILDREN LIVING WITH DISABILITIES AND COMPLEX HEALTH NEEDS, AND THOSE OF THEIR FAMILIES
Get PDFRubber's inclusion in zero-deforestation legislation is necessary but not sufficient to reduce impacts on biodiversity
Get PDFAgricultural commodity production is a major driver of tropical deforestation and biodiversity loss. Natural rubber from Hevea brasiliensis, a valuable commodity without viable substitutes, has recently been included in the European Union (EU) deforestation regulation that aims to halt imports of goods containing embedded deforestation. Sustained growth in demand for rubber is driven by increasing tire production, caused by rising transport flows and personal car ownership. We show that average natural rubber yields remain static, meaning 2.7–5.3 million ha of additional plantations could be needed by 2030 to meet demand. A systematic literature search identified 106 case studies concerning transitions to and from rubber, revealing that substantial rubber plantation area expansion since 2010 has occurred at the expense of natural forest. Eliminating deforestation from rubber supply chains requires support for millions of smallholder growers to maintain or increase production from existing plantations, without land or water degradation. Supply chain traceability efforts offer opportunities to deliver such support. While the inclusion of rubber in EU legislation is a positive step, it is critical to ensure that smallholders are not marginalized to avoid exacerbating poverty, and that other markets follow suit to avoid displacement of rubber-driven deforestation to unregulated markets
Work, Identity, Narrative: Reconstructing the Working Experiences of Italians in Wales (1880s – 1950s)
Get PDFWhole-genome phylogeography of the intertidal snail Littorina saxatilis
Get PDFUnderstanding the factors that have shaped the current distributions and diversity of species is a central and longstanding aim of evolutionary biology. The recent inclusion of genomic data into phylogeographic studies has dramatically improved our understanding in organisms where evolutionary relationships have been challenging to infer. We used whole-genome sequences to study the phylogeography of the intertidal snail Littorina saxatilis, which has successfully colonized and diversified across a broad range of coastal environments in the Northern Hemisphere amid repeated cycles of glaciation. Building on past studies based on short DNA sequences, we used genome-wide data to provide a clearer picture of the relationships among samples spanning most of the species natural range. Our results confirm the trans-Atlantic colonization of North America from Europe, and have allowed us to identify rough locations of glacial refugia and to infer likely routes of colonization within Europe. We also investigated the signals in different datasets to account for the effects of genomic architecture and non-neutral evolution, which provides new insights about diversification of four ecotypes of L. saxatilis (the crab, wave, barnacle, and brackish ecotypes) at different spatial scales. Overall, we provide a much clearer picture of the biogeography of L. saxatilis, providing a foundation for more detailed phylogenomic and demographic studies
Control of blood pressure in the cold: Differentiation of skin and skeletal muscle vascular resistance
Get PDFNEW FINDINGS: What is the central question of this study? Why does blood pressure increases during cold air exposure? Specifically, what is the contribution of skin and skeletal muscle vascular resistance during whole body versus isolated face cooling? What is the main finding and its importance? Whole-body cooling caused an increase in blood pressure through an increase in skeletal muscle and cutaneous vascular resistance. However, isolated mild face cooling caused an increase in blood pressure predominately via an increase in cutaneous vasoconstriction.ABSTRACT: The primary aim of this investigation was to determine the individual contribution of the cutaneous and skeletal muscle circulations to the cold-induced pressor response. To address this, we examined local vascular resistances in the cutaneous and skeletal muscle of the arm and leg. Thirty-four healthy individuals underwent three different protocols, whereby cold air to clamp skin temperature (27°C) was passed over (1) the whole-body, (2) the whole-body, but with the forearm pre-cooled to clamp cutaneous vascular resistance, and (3) the face. Cold exposure applied to the whole body or isolated to the face increased mean arterial pressure (all, P < 0.001) and total peripheral resistance (all, P < 0.047) compared to thermal neutral baseline. Whole-body cooling increased femoral (P < 0.005) and brachial artery resistance (P < 0.003) compared to thermoneutral baseline. Moreover, when the forearm was pre-cooled to remove the contribution of cutaneous resistance (P = 0.991), there was a further increase in lower arm vasoconstriction (P = 0.036) when whole-body cooling was superimposed. Face cooling also caused a reflex increase in lower arm cutaneous (P = 0.009) and brachial resistance (P = 0.050), yet there was no change in femoral resistance (P = 0.815) despite a reflex increase in leg cutaneous resistance (P = 0.010). Cold stress causes an increase in blood pressure through a change in total peripheral resistance that is largely due to cutaneous vasoconstriction with face cooling, but there is additional vasoconstriction in the skeletal muscle vasculature with whole-body cooling.</p
Changing Agendas on Sleep, Treatment and Learning in Epilepsy (CASTLE) Sleep-E: A protocol for a randomised controlled trial comparing an online behavioural sleep intervention with standard care in children with Rolandic epilepsy
Get PDFINTRODUCTION: Sleep and epilepsy have an established bidirectional relationship yet only one randomised controlled clinical trial has assessed the effectiveness of behavioural sleep interventions for children with epilepsy. The intervention was successful, but was delivered via face-to-face educational sessions with parents, which are costly and non-scalable to population level. The Changing Agendas on Sleep, Treatment and Learning in Epilepsy (CASTLE) Sleep-E trial addresses this problem by comparing clinical and cost-effectiveness in children with Rolandic epilepsy between standard care (SC) and SC augmented with a novel, tailored parent-led CASTLE Online Sleep Intervention (COSI) that incorporates evidence-based behavioural components.METHODS AND ANALYSES: CASTLE Sleep-E is a UK-based, multicentre, open-label, active concurrent control, randomised, parallel-group, pragmatic superiority trial. A total of 110 children with Rolandic epilepsy will be recruited in outpatient clinics and allocated 1:1 to SC or SC augmented with COSI (SC+COSI). Primary clinical outcome is parent-reported sleep problem score (Children's Sleep Habits Questionnaire). Primary health economic outcome is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, Child Health Utility 9D Instrument). Parents and children (≥7 years) can opt into qualitative interviews and activities to share their experiences and perceptions of trial participation and managing sleep with Rolandic epilepsy.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The CASTLE Sleep-E protocol was approved by the Health Research Authority East Midlands (HRA)-Nottingham 1 Research Ethics Committee (reference: 21/EM/0205). Trial results will be disseminated to scientific audiences, families, professional groups, managers, commissioners and policymakers. Pseudo-anonymised individual patient data will be made available after dissemination on reasonable request.TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN13202325.</p
The impact of phonological relatedness on semantic congruency judgements in readers with dyslexia: Evidence from behavioural judgements, event related potentials and pupillometry
Get PDFReaders with developmental dyslexia are known to be impaired in representing and accessing phonology, but their ability to process meaning is generally considered to be intact. However, neurocognitive studies show evidence of a subtle semantic processing deficit in dyslexic readers, relative to their typically-developing peers. Here, we compared dyslexic and typical adult readers on their ability to judge semantic congruency (congruent vs. inconcongruent) in short, two-word phrases, which were further manipulated for phonological relatedness (alliterating vs. non-alliterating); “dazzling-diamond”; “sparkling-diamond”; “dangerous-diamond”; and “creepy-diamond”. At the level of behavioural judgement, all readers were less accurate when evaluating incongruent alliterating items compared with incongruent non-aliterating, suggesting that phonological patterning creates the illusion of semantic congruency (as per Egan et al., 2020). Dyslexic readers showed a similar propensity for this form-meaning relationship despite a phonological processing impairment as evidenced in the cognitive and literacy indicative assessments. Dyslexic readers also showed an overall reduction in the ability to accurately judge semantic congruency, suggestive of a subtle semantic impairment. Whilst no group differences emerged in the electrophysiological measures, our pupil dilation measurements revealed a global tendency for dyslexic readers to manifest a reduced attentional response to these word stimuli, compared with typical readers. Our results show a broad manifestation of neurocognitive differences in adult dyslexic and typical readers’ processing of print, at the level of autonomic arousal as well as in higher level semantic judgements