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The Impact of Climate Change on Regional Government Expenditures : Evidence from Russia
No full textThis paper explores an almost untouched topic in the fast-growing climate econometrics literature—the implications of climate change for government expenditures. Using a rich sub-national dataset for Russia covering 1995–2009, we estimate the impacts of changes in climatic conditions through short-term variation and medium-term changes in average regional temperatures and precipitation. We show a strong and robust negative (but non-linear) relation between regional budget expenditures and population-weighted temperature. The results indicate that an increase in temperature results in a decrease in public expenditures and that the magnitude of this effect diminishes the warmer the region. Further, our results suggest that the benefits from warming accumulate and that adaptation measures could help leverage those benefits. The estimated decreases in regional government expenditure are, however, quite small. In mild warming scenarios, according to our estimates Russia saves roughly USD 3–4 billion in regional government expenditures between 2000 and the 2020s without undertaking adaptation measures, depending on the scenario. It should be noted that our results are estimated for a scenario of mild temperature increase (1–2 ∘C). Larger temperature increases are likely to have dramatic consequences e.g. from loss of permafrost and methane release that are impossible to predict with available historical data.Published in BOFIT Discussion Paper 27/2015
Finlands Banks årsberättelse 2016
No full textFöretal 6
Finlands Bank – byggare av stabilitet 7
Verksamheten 2016 8
Penningpolitik 8
Finanssystemet 20
Tillgångsförvaltning 29
Sedlar och mynt 33
Övrig verksamhet 36
Ledning och personal 44
Strategin 44
Ledningssystem 48
Personal 49
Budget och verksamhetskostnader 51
Miljö 53
Totala risker 55
Bokslut 59
Balansräkning 60
Resultaträkning 62
Direktionens förslag till vinstutdelning 63
Redovisningsprinciper 64
Noter till balansräkningen 68
Noter till resultaträkningen 80
Bokslutsbilagor 85
Noter om riskhanteringen 89
Revisionsberättelse 93
Uttalande om revision i enlighet med artikel 27 i stadgan för Europeiska centralbankssystemet och Europeiska centralbanken 94
Bilagor 96
Penningpolitiska åtgärder inom Eurosystemet 2016 96
Viktigaste finansmarknadsåtgärder 2016 99
Finlands Banks viktigaste remissyttranden 2016 100
Finlands Banks publikationer 2016 102
Tabellbilagor 103
Finlands Banks organization 11
Two tales of the natural rate of interest
No full textWe estimate the long-term natural rate of interest for the euro area with two specifications of a simple semi-structural macroeconomic model. The estimates provide competing interpretations for the euro area’s current economic environment of weak growth, subdued inflation and exceptionally low nominal interest rates. In our first estimation, the current state of economy is attributed to persistent, recurring negative shocks to the output gap that restrain growth even when expansionary monetary policies are applied. The second estimation suggests that a large drop in the natural rate of interest is the problem, because, even with interest rates held close to zero, policy actions have not been able to revive the economy after major shocks in 2008, 2012 and 2016. As both views may explain some of the observed trends, the task of teasing out the drivers of current conditions and future trends is non-trivial. Nevertheless, policymakers should pay attention to both stories as they have quite different endings
How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
No full textThis study examines short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We focus on dispersion of forecaster views comparing two sub-groups of survey respondents based on forecast accuracy. We then examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters, and assess the impacts of varying panel composition on aggregated survey information. Our analysis indicates that survey participation is not necessarily completely random, i.e., statistically independent of forecaster views or confidence levels. While the study provides evidence that aggregated survey responses are generally a reliable proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, one should also pay attention to expectations at the micro level, especially in periods of increased forecast uncertainty
Breaking monetary policy rules in Russia
No full textThis study estimates whether the monetary policy rules of Bank of Russia have changed recently. Russia has moved towards inflation targeting over the past years, which is reflected in our empirical estimations. We start by estimating various monetary policy rules for Russia, concluding that a variant of the Taylor rule depicts Bank of Russia's monetary policy over the past decade well. Moreover, there have been two clear breaks in the coefficients of the estimated monetary policy rule, possibly signifying a shift towards traditional inflation targeting and also the current recent economic turbulence.BOFIT Policy Brief 9/201
Financial shocks, financial stability, and optimal Taylor rules
No full textWe assess the performance of optimal Taylor-type interest rate rules, with and without reaction to financial variables, in stabilizing an economy following financial shocks. The analysis is conducted in a DSGE model with loan and bond markets, each featuring financial frictions. This allows for a wide set of financial shocks and transmission mechanisms and can be calibrated to match the bond-to-bank finance ratio featured in the US financial system. Overall, we find that monetary policy that reacts to credit growth, a form of the so-called “leaning against the wind”, improves the ability of the central bank to achieve its mandate in the wake of financial shocks. The specific policy implications depend partly on the origin and the persistence of the financial shock, but overall not on the assignment of a mandate for financial stability in the central bank’s objective function.BoF DP 21/201
How toxic is public debt?
No full textThis paper deals with the debt-growth relationship using several time-series tools. The idea is to find out whether the inverse relationship between these variables can be detected without imposing any functional forms on the estimating relationship and whether the relationship does indeed reflect some nonlinear features. Thus recursive correlations with different orderings of the time-series are computed using the Reinhart and Rogoff panel data. After that, recursive correlations are re-estimated with data that are cyclically adjusted to reflect the structural features of the two variables. The nature of the relationship is also scrutinised using several variable-parameter estimation techniques (Kalman filter, logistic functional form and recursive estimation). Finally, some causality analyses are carried out using various transformations of the data up to the point of cross-sections of data. The analysis shows that the inverse relationship between growth and debt is indeed quite robust and tends to support the 'toxic debt' hypothesis rather than the cyclical debt accumulation hypothesis. Yet the causality issue remains largely unresolved
Talouskatsaus 8/2017
No full textYhteenveto 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 5
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 12
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 17
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 22
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 27
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 35
Kehikot 37
1 Mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat metallien hintakehitykseen? 37
2 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 26.7.–31.10.2017 41
3 Kyselypohjaisten indikaattoreiden viimeaikainen vahvuus:
mitä se kertoo BKT:n kasvun syvyydestä ja laajuudesta? 45
4 Mitä EKP:n Survey of Professional Forecasters kyselytutkimus
kertoo euroalueen työmarkkinoita koskevista arvioista? 50
5 Huomioita alustavien talousarviosuunnitelmien arvioinnista
vuoden 2018 arvioinnin perusteella 54
Artikkelit 57
(Saatavissa englanninkielisinä EKP:n verkkopalvelusta
http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/html/index.en.html)
1 The oil market in the age of shale oil 57
2 The impact of global value chains on the macroeconomic analysis 75
Tilastot (vain englanniksi) S
Digitaalinen keskuspankkiraha
No full textKeskuspankit ovat perinteisesti laskeneet liikkeeseen seteleitä yleisön käytettäviksi. Digitalisaation myötä setelit alkavat olla teknisesti vanhentunut maksuväline, ja jotkut keskuspankit ovat harkinneet vähittäismaksamiseen soveltuvaa elektronista keskuspankkirahaa. Elektroninen keskuspankkiraha tarjoaisi yleisölle mahdollisuuden pitää hallussaan keskuspankkirahaa mahdollisessa setelittömässä tulevaisuudessa. Lohkoketjuteknologia nykyisellään todennäköisesti sopisi tarkoitukseen huonosti, sillä se ei pysty käsittelemään riittävän suurta määrää transaktioita. Elektronisella keskuspankkirahalla olisi todennäköisesti muille keskuspankkipolitiikan lohkoille merkittäviä vaikutuksia, joita olisi selvitettävä huolellisesti