Suomen Pankin Julkaisuarkisto
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The effects of the ECB’s pandemic-related monetary policy measures
No full textWe assess the macroeconomic impact of pandemic-related monetary policy measures of the ECB. Conditioning on counterfactual interest rate paths that would have materialised in the absence of the policies, the macroeconomic effects are measured using structural vector autoregressions. In the framework, multiple monetary policy measures may simultaneously be analysed. According to our results, the asset purchase programmes implemented during the crisis have increased the annual GDP growth by approximate 2 percentage points in 2020–2021 and inflation by 0.5 percentage points. The longer-term refinancing operations have contributed positively but more mildly to the economic activity
The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies : A Global VAR Approach
No full textThis paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During an observation period of two decades, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience notable changes. We find CIS countries to be highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show the strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate.Published in BOFIT DP 17/2018
Patenttien yksityinen arvo : kirjallisuuskatsaus ja uusia tuloksia Suomesta
No full textTässä kirjoituksessa tehdään katsaus patenttien taloustieteellisiin arvottamismenetelmiin ja niistä johdettuihin arvioihin patenttien arvosta. Sen lisäksi raportoidaan uusia tuloksia suomalaisten yritysten (ja eräiden muiden organisaatioiden) patenttien arvosta ja verrataan niitä aiemmin Suomesta saatuihin tuloksiin. Eri arvottamismenetelmillä saadaan laadullisesti samansuuntaisia tuloksia patenttien arvojakauman muodosta ja toimialaeroista arvojen välillä. Eri menetelmät tuottavat kuitenkin erisuuruisia estimaatteja patenttien arvosta johtuen mm. eroista menetelmien vastafaktuaaleissa ja siitä, kuinka hyvin eri menetelmät pystyvät erottelemaan patenttien ja niiden suojaamien keksintöjen arvoa toisistaan. Suomalaisella aineistoilla saadut tulokset ovat samansuuntaisia kuin muista maista saadut tulokset. Tässä kirjoituksessa raportoidut uudet tulokset viittaavat siihen, että suomalaisten yritysten (ja muiden organisaatioiden) patenttien yksityinen arvo on ollut nousussa
The Power of Forward Guidance and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
No full textStandard models predict implausible responses to forward-guidance announcements when interest rates are pegged (the "forward-guidance puzzle"). This paper develops conditions for regime-switching models to exhibit a forward-guidance puzzle,and shows when the fiscal theory of the price level does-and does not-resolve the forward-guidance puzzle. Forward guidance has reasonable effects when real fiscal revenues are very unresponsive to government debt, but in some empirically relevant cases, inflation must ensure debt stability and forward-guidance puzzles are still there. Cyclical variation in deficits also affects the power of forward guidance.Published also as BoF DP 21/2018
Talouskatsaus 2/2021
No full textRAHA- JA REAALITALOUDEN KEHITYS 2
1 Ulkoinen ympäristö 7
2 Rahoitusmarkkinoiden kehitys 16
3 Talouskehitys euroalueella 21
4 Hinnat ja kustannukset 27
5 Rahan määrä ja luotonanto 33
6 Julkisen talouden kehitys 41
KEHIKOT 45
1 Talouskehitys euroalueella ja Yhdysvalloissa vuonna 2020 45
2 Euroalueen pääomakanta koronaviruspandemian puhkeamisen jälkeen 51
3 Likviditeettitilanne ja rahapoliittiset operaatiot 4.11.2020–26.1.2021 58
4 Rajoitustoimien vaikutus eri sektoreihin ja maihin koronaviruspandemian aikana 64
5 Voittomarginaalien rooli koronavirussokkiin sopeutumisessa 71
6 Vuoden 2021 yhdenmukaistetun kuluttajahintaindeksin painot ja niiden vaikutus inflaation mittaamiseen 77
7 EU:n elvytyspaketin vaikutukset julkiseen talouteen 82
TILASTOT (vain englanniksi) S
Finlands Banks årsberättelse 2020
No full textCHEFDIREKTÖRENS HÄLSNING 4
VERKSAMHET OCH STRATEGI 6
FINLANDS BANK I ETT NÖTSKAL 8
FINLANDS BANKS STRATEGI REVIDERADES 2020 9
DIREKTIONENS ARBETSFÖRDELNING 14
GEDIGEN EXPERTIS ÄR STABIL VALUTA 17
FINLANDS BANKS BUDGET 2021 OCH VERKSAMHETSKOSTNADER 22
HANTERING AV MILJÖPÅVERKAN: FINLANDS BANKS UTSLÄPP MINSKADE UNDER CORONAPANDEMIN 28
VERKSAMHETSBERÄTTELSE 31
PENNINGPOLITIK 32
FINANSIELL STABILITET 67
PENGAR OCH BETALNINGAR 92
TILLGÅNGSFÖRVALTNING 118
INFLYTANDE OCH SAMARBETE 140
HÅLLBARHET PÅ FINLANDS BANK 167
BOKSLUT 171
BALANSRÄKNING 172
RESULTATRÄKNING 175
DIREKTIONENS FÖRSLAG TILL VINSTUTDELNING 177
REDOVISNINGSPRINCIPER 178
NOTER TILL BALANSRÄKNINGEN 184
NOTER TILL RESULTATRÄKNINGEN 212
BOKSLUTSBILAGOR 223
NOTER OM RISKHANTERINGEN 225
REVISIONSBERÄTTELSE 231
UTLÅTANDE OM REVISION 232
ORGANISATION 23
Consumer inflation views : Micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures
No full textWe assess reliability of aggregate inflation expectations in the European Commission Consumer Survey by identifying individual responses to qualitative and quantitative questions that do not match each other. We provide evidence that micro-level inconsistencies are common in the survey data, but they distort neither the aggregate measures of inflation expectations nor the results of the analysis of expectation formation on the macro-level.Published in BoF DP 10/2019 "Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey" http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20190704128
Do activist hedge funds target female CEOs? The role of CEO gender in hedge fund activism
No full textUsing a comprehensive US hedge fund activism dataset from 2003 to 2018, we find that activist hedge funds are about 52% more likely to target firms with female CEOs compared to firms with male CEOs. We find that firm fundamentals, the existence of a “glass cliff,” gender discrimination bias, and hedge fund activists’ inherent characteristics do not explain the observed gender effect. We also find that the transformational leadership style of female CEOs is a plausible explanation for this gender effect: instead of being self-defensive, female CEOs are more likely to communicate and cooperate with hedge fund activists to achieve intervention goals. Finally, we find that female-led targets experience greater increases in market and operational performance subsequent to hedge fund targeting