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What drives discretion in bank lending? : Some evidence and a link to private information
No full textWe assess the extent to which discretion, unexplained variations in the terms of a loan contract, has varied across time and lending institutions and show that part of this discretion is due to private information that lenders have on their borrowers. We find that discretion is lower for secured loans and loans granted by a larger group of lenders, and is larger when the lenders are larger and more profitable. Over time, discretion is also lower around recessions although the private information content is higher. The results suggest that bank discretionary and private information acquisition behavior may be important features of the credit cycle.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2018
What Can We Learn from the Real Bills Doctrine?
No full textThe historical development of bank liquidity doctrines is surveyed from the real bills doctrine and its antecedents to the present day. The underlying ideas of the succession of several dominant liquidity doctrines are analysed and compared, with attention to their historical contexts and respective weaknesses as exposed by experience. While the real bills doctrine is obsolete as such, its central idea that the liquidity of banks requires their credit to be linked to real income generation in the economy is unique among the different liquidity doctrines and can be useful as the liquidity regulation of banks is now subject to renewed interest.Juha Tarkka: What Can We Learn from the Real Bills Doctrine? 1
Abstract 1
Zusammenfassung 1
I. Introduction 2
II. The Real Bills Doctrine as a Liquidity Rule 3
III. The Antecedents of the Real Bills Doctrine 6
IV. Remarks on Narrow Banking 7
V. The Shiftability Doctrine 8
VI. After the Great Depression and the War: The Anticipated Income Theory 11
VII. Liability Management 14
VIII. The Great Deregulation 16
IX. The Financial Crisis and its Aftermath 18
X. Discussion 2
Suomen Pankin eläkerahaston vuosikertomus 2018
No full text1 Suomen Pankin eläkerahasto..5
2 Eläkevastuu ja maksetut eläkkeet..7
3 Tilinpäätös..8
3.1 Tase..8
3.2 Tuloslaskelma..9
3.3 Suomen Pankin eläkerahaston tilinpäätöksen kommentit..1
Henkilöstötilinpäätös 2018
No full textJohdanto 3
Organisaatiomuutokset 4
IT-yksikköön IT Business Partnerit ja osastoille omat asiakkuustiimit 4
Henkilöstömäärä ja -rakenne 4
Ikärakenne 5
Sukupuolijakauma 5
Palvelussuhteen kesto 5
Rekrytoinnit ja henkilöstön vaihtuvuus 7
Työnantajakuva 7
Rekrytoinnit 7
Young Professionals -ohjelma 8
Liikkuvuus 9
Määräaikaiset tehtävänimitykset 9
Lähtövaihtuvuus 9
Työaika ja työpanos 11
Henkilötyövuodet 11
Lisä- ja ylityöt 12
Vuosiloma 12
Palkkaus ja palkinta 12
Vuoden 2018 palkantarkistukset ja palkinta 13
Palkkakehitys 13
Osaamisen kehittäminen 15
Koulutusrakenne 15
Koulutuspanostukset 16
Suoriutumisen johtaminen 18
Esimiestyön kehittäminen 18
Tutkimustoiminta vahvistaa ekonomistiosaamista 18
Toimintatapojen kehittäminen 19
Ideapankki 19
Työhyvinvointi 20
Työkyvyn ylläpito ja sairauspoissaolot 20
Työsuojelu- ja yhteistoiminta 20
Tasa-arvo 22
Rekrytoinnit 22
Palkkaus ja työuralla eteneminen 22
Kansainvälinen yhteistyö 22
Sisäiset työryhmät ja yhteistoimintaedustus 22
Työ- ja perhe-elämän yhteensovittaminen 22
Suomen Pankin eläkelaitos 23
Tunnuslukuyhteenveto 24
Käsitteet ja määritelmät 2
Uncertainty shocks and firm creation : Search and monitoring in the credit market
No full textWe develop a business cycle model where endogenous firm creation stems from two credit market frictions. First, entrepreneurs search for a lending relationship with a bank. Second, an optimal debt contract with monitoring is implemented. We analyze the interplay between both frictions, and embed it into an otherwise standard business cycle model which we estimate with Bayesian techniques. We find that uncertainty shocks are a prime contributor to business cycle fluctuations in the US, not only for macro-financial aggregates but also for firm creation. Moreover, we point out that the credit search friction dampens the financial accelerator mechanism because default may imply the end of the lending relationship.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2017.http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20171123167
Business cycle synchronisation and currency unions : A review of the econometric evidence using meta-analysis
No full textThis paper offers a systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients including their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); and (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/2017http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20170920160
The interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies
No full textI analyze a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where the financing of productive investment is affected by a moral hazard problem. I solve for jointly Ramsey‐optimal monetary and macroprudential policies. I find that when a financial friction is present in addition to the standard nominal friction, the optimal policy can replicate the first‐best allocation if the social planner can conduct both monetary and macroprudential policy. Using monetary policy alone is not enough: a policy trade‐off between stabilizing inflation and output gap emerges. When policy follows simple rules, the source of fluctuations is relevant for the choice of the appropriate policy mix.Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2016
Talous kasvaa - vai kasvaako? Kansantalouden tilinpidon revisiot tarkastelussa
No full textTalouden kehitystä kuvaavat tilastoaineistot valmistuvat viiveellä, ja tilastojen lukuja tarkennetaan eli revisioidaan lähdeaineistojen täydentyessä ja tarkentuessa. Tässä artikkelissa tarkastellaan kansantalouden neljännesvuositilinpidon tavaroiden ja palveluiden tilin (entinen huoltotase) revisioita. Artikkelissa kuvaillaan Suomen bruttokansantuotteen kausitasoitetun volyymin ja sen kysyntäerien revisioita ja testataan mahdollisuuksia ennakoida revisioita. BKT:n kasvun estimaatit ovat tulosten mukaan hieman harhaisia tarkastelujakson aikana, ja revisiot ovat suurimmillaan suhdanteen käännepisteissä sekä kahdella ensimmäisellä vuosineljänneksellä. BKT:n neljännesvuosikasvun revisiot eivät ole ennakoitavissa pelkkää BKT-aineistoa käyttämällä, mutta tavaroiden ja palveluiden tilin tilastollisella erolla on jonkin verran ennustekykyä. Kysyntäeristä mittaluokaltaan suurimmat revisiot ovat voimakkaasti vaihtelevilla tuonnilla ja viennillä, mutta nettoviennin revisiot jäävät pieniksi tuonnin ja viennin tarkentuessatyypillisesti samaan suuntaan. Yksityisen kulutuksen revisiot ovat maltillisia, mutta erän suuresta koosta johtuen revisiot ovat merkittäviä kokonaiskysynnän kannalta
Banking crisis prediction with differenced relative credit
No full textIndicators based on the ratio of credit to GDP have been found to be highly useful predictors of banking crises. We study the difference in this ratio as an early warning indicator. We test a large number of different versions of the differenced credit-to-GDP ratio with data on Euro area members. The optimal time interval of the difference is about two years. Using the moving average of GDP instead of the latest annual data has little impact on forecasting performance. The indicator is a particularly promising choice at relatively short forecasting horizons, such as two or three years.Published in Applied Economics Quarterly 2019 ; 65 ; 9 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20200218113
Switching costs and financial stability
No full textWe establish that the effect of intensified deposit market competition, measured by reduced switching costs, on the probability of bank failures depends critically on whether we focus on competition with established customer relationships or competition for the formation of such relationships. With inherited customer relationships, intensified competition due to lower switching costs destabilizes the banking market, whereas it stabilizes the market if we focus on competition for the formation of customer relationships. We characterize the factors important for evaluating the effects of intensified competition on stability in a market with unattached as well as locked-in depositors.Published in Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 2/2016 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-20160302103