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Covid-19 and mobility: determinant or consequence?
No full textInternational audienceThis paper disentangles the relationship between COVID-19 propagation and mobility. In a theoretical model allowing mobility to be endogenously determined by the COVID-19 prevalence rate, we show that an exogenous epidemic shock has an immediate effect on mobility whereas an exogenous mobility shock influences epidemic variables with a delay. In the long run, exogenous disease contagiousness and mobility jointly shape epidemiological outcomes. The short-run theoretical result allows us to recover, empirically, the causal impacts of mobility and COVID-19 hospitalisations on each other in France. We find that hospitalisations are highly sensitive to mobility whereas mobility is little influenced by hospitalisations. In France, it seems therefore that voluntary social distancing would not have been effective to control the epidemic, in the absence of social distancing mandates
Value of information dynamics in Disease X vaccine clinical trials
No full textAbstract Background Solutions have been proposed to accelerate the development and rollout of vaccines against a hypothetical disease with epidemic or pandemic potential called Disease X. This may involve resolving uncertainties regarding the disease and the new vaccine. However the value for public health of collecting this information will depend on the time needed to perform research, but also on the time needed to produce vaccine doses. We explore this interplay, and its effect on the decision on whether or not to perform research. Method We simulate numerically the emergence and transmission of a disease in a population using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model with vaccination. Uncertainties regarding the disease and the vaccine are represented by parameter prior distributions. We vary the date at which vaccine doses are available, and the date at which information about parameters becomes available. We use the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and the expected value of partially perfect information (EVPPI) to measure the value of information. Results As expected, information has less or no value if it comes too late, or (equivalently) if it can only be used too late. However we also find non trivial dynamics for shorter durations of vaccine development. In this parameter area, it can be optimal to implement vaccination without waiting for information depending on the respective durations of dose production and of clinical research. Conclusion We illustrate the value of information dynamics in a Disease X out-break scenario, and present a general approach to properly take into account uncertainties and transmission dynamics when planning clinical research in this scenario. Our method is based on numerical simulation and allows us to highlight non trivial effects that cannot otherwise be investigated
How beautiful people see the world : Cooperativeness judgments of and by beautiful people
No full textInternational audiencePerceived beauty is one of the strongest predictors of perceived cooperativeness, causing the “beauty bias”. Through a large three-stage incentivized behavioral and rating experiment (N=357), we study (1) the beauty bias in incentivized predictions of cooperativeness and (2) the ex-post relevance of beauty ratings for predicting cooperativeness in an incentivized game. We additionally (3) investigate if one's beauty influences the beauty bias in predictions of cooperativeness of others. Our findings demonstrate the robustness of the beauty bias and its irrelevance for making accurate predictions. We further observe that individuals are affected by the beauty bias irrespective of their beauty. Overall, the results highlight the importance of strong institutions that protect individuals from falling prey to the beauty bias.<br /
Bilateral Models of Cross-Licensing for Smart Products
No full textInternational audienceMotivated by the new practice of cross-licensing and price competition in smart products, as well as the lack of cross-licensing literature, this article develops a theoretical framework to investigate the incentive for bilateral cross-licensing between two competing firms with asymmetric bargaining power under price competition in smart products. In this article, one firm possesses quality-improving innovation, and another offers cost-reducing innovation for smart products. We find regardless of cost-reducing innovation scale, when the production cost of a holder of quality-improving technology is high enough, the competing firms have the motivation to cross-licensing; compared with a quantity competition, cross-licensing in price competition draws a higher price and producer surplus, but lower consumer surplus and poorer social welfare. This is an interesting finding for the discussion over whether a Bertrand price competition is more efficient than a Cournot quantity competition; and price competition, plus the stability of tacit collusion in cross-licensing, requires that participants have moderate bargaining power. Our article provides a potential explanation for the use of cross-licensing in the smart product industry with price competition, as well as management insights for decision makers by considering different effects elicited by cross-licensing of the smart products.<br/
Trust and social preferences in times of acute health crisis
No full textInternational audienceWe combined a natural experiment (the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020) with the tools of laboratory experiments to study whether and how an unprecedented shock on social interactions (the introduction and abrogation of a nationwide lockdown) affected the evolution of individuals' social preferences, and willingness to trust others. In a longitudinal online incentivized experiment during the first lockdown in France, we elicited the same participants' preferences for prosociality, trust and trustworthiness every week for three months. Despite the exposure to long-lasting social distancing, prosocial preferences and the willingness to reciprocate the trust of others remained stable during the whole period under study. In contrast, the lockdown had an immediate negative effect on trust, which remained at lower levels til after the lifting of such measures but recovered its initial level nine months later. The decline in trust was mainly driven by individuals who experienced financial hardship, a lack of outward exposure, and higher anxiety during the lockdown
Emotional intelligence and the dark triad : a latent profile analysis to investigate the Jekyll and Hyde of the emotionally intelligent manager
No full textInternational audienceManagers sometimes have a bad reputation as they are often perceived as more manipulative than other employees. This study focuses on the Dark Triad (DT)—comprising psychopathy, Machiavellianism, and narcissism—and its connection with managers’ “Ability” Emotional Intelligence (AEI). The link between DT (measured through the Dirty Dozen) and managers’ AEI (measured through QEPro, an AEI performance test) was examined through a Latent Profile Analysis (LPA). We identified two AEI latent profiles within a heterogeneous population of 231 French managers. Our results show that managers with the FEP (Full Emotional Processing) profile are less Machiavellian (relative to the MEP -Minimal Emotion Processing- profile). Our results show that identifying AEI profiles may be a practical way to prevent toxic Management.<br /
Motivated Information Acquisition and Social Norm Formation
No full textInternational audienceWe examine the effect of self-selected peer information on individual behavior and social norm formation via two experiments (N=1,945; N=2,414) using a lying game and political identification. A self-serving bias emerges in endogenous information search, wherein lenient sources (i.e., sources containing more tolerant empirical or normative information regarding dishonesty), especially those aligned with political identification, are preferred. Selecting lenient sources about peer perception of social norms boosts dishonesty, while peer behavior information chiefly influences expectations about dishonesty, with a minor impact on own behavior. Importantly, peer approval expectations stay largely unaltered by both information types. In a follow-up experiment with exogenously assigned sources, the influence of social information on behavior and expectations is diminished
Mindfulness Training, Cognitive Performance and Stress Reduction
No full textInternational audienceImproving cognitive function and reducing stress may yield important benefits to individuals' health and to society. We conduct an experiment involving a three-month within-firm training program based on the principles of mindfulness and positive psychology at three large companies. We find an improvement in the difference-indifferences across the training and control groups in all five non-incentivized measures and in seven of the eight incentivized tasks but only the non-incentivized measures and one of the incentivized measures reached a standard level of significance (above 5%), showing strong evidence of its impact on both reducing perceived stress and increasing self-reported cognitive flexibility and mindfulness. At the aggregate level, we identify an average treatment effect on the treated for the non-incentivized measures and some effect for the incentivized measures. Remarkably, the treatment effects persisted three months after the training sessions ended. Overall, mindfulness training seems to provide benefits for psychological and cognitive health in adults
Strategic investment in electricity generation with renewable entrants: The case of French nuclear power
No full textWe study incentives to invest in electricity generation capacity if an incumbent using nuclear power competes with an endogenous number of entrants using intermittent renewable energy sources. The intermittence of renewables makes the incumbent less aggressive, and the incumbent accommodates if the efficiency difference between technologies is not too large. We analyze France's long-running subsidy scheme, the ARENH, through the prism of our model. This policy achieves its aim of making product market outcomes more competitive through an endogenous entry channel, but if investments in nuclear power are restarted then pursuing such a scheme would run the risk of facilitating deterrence
LONELINESS AND TRUST: EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE-SCALE TRUST GAME EXPERIMENT
No full textTrust behavior and being trusted are influenced by a multitude of individual and situational factors.Loneliness is a factor that has recently been hypothesized to be related to trust. Societies and governments are increasingly concerned with the rise of loneliness, and a negative impact on trust might add an additional social cost of loneliness. To evaluate the economic risk of loneliness, we present results from a large, incentivized trust experiment conducted with more than 27000 respondents. Our study allows us to investigate (i) the relationship between self-reported loneliness and behavior in an incentivized trust situation and (ii) the impact of knowing about the loneliness status of others on behavior.Contrary to what the literature hypothesized, we observe no negative correlation between self-reported loneliness and trust in the trust game: lonely individuals are more trusting than individuals who are not lonely. Higher trust by lonely individuals cannot be attributed to more optimistic beliefs of returns but seems to reflect a larger willingness of the lonely to take the social risk associated with trusting in the trust game.We further observe that being informed that an interaction partner is lonely leads to a beneficial treatment of the lonely. Individuals known to be lonely are significantly more likely to be trusted, and they benefit from their partners acting more trustworthy. Behavior that cannot be attributed to strategic concerns.We conclude that loneliness should not be considered as a deteriorator of social capital but as an emotional state that organizations should acknowledge to enable individuals to reconnect to others