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Inflation cycle synchronization in ASEAN countries
No full textInternational audienceWe investigate the pairwise causality of inflation rates across time and frequencies, inflation cycle synchronization and network structure of causality between five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We draw our empirical results and conclusions by implementing dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs), a wavelet measure of cohesion for inflation cycle evolution assessment, and the spillover network index model of Diebold and Yilmaz [1,2]. We find evidence of time-dependent variation in the strength of co-movement between inflation cycles across countries. Positive network causality between inflation cycles and inflation integration across the ASEAN countries are identified. The lead–lag properties of economic indicators are observed to depend on the cycle’s periodicity. The inflation synchronization is particularly pronounced in Thailand
The journal quality perception gap
No full textInternational audienceWe explore the drivers of researchers’ perceptions around journal quality, and how these perceptions converge or diverge with national journal ranking systems. Prior to the release of the Academic Journal Guide (AJG) 2018 rankings list, we surveyed UK business school researchers, resulting in 19,597 individual journal rankings. We find a notable journal quality perception gap, with 39% of subjective rankings from the business and management community differing from the AJG 2018 rankings. We show that measures of personal connection to the AJG system have strong explanatory power. These factors include the usage of, and sentiment towards, the AJG list, as well as individual research success as measured by AJG rankings. Consistently, we find that high values for these factors narrow the quality perception gap, whereas low values widen it. We also find an increase in the quality perception gap for journals that a respondent has submitted to or reviewed for. Our research, thus, provides new insights into how researchers interact with journal ranking systems. We propose how researchers, business schools, and ranking bodies can incorporate these findings to improve stakeholders’ consensus on research quality assessment
An overview of share buybacks: A descriptive case from Malaysia
No full textInternational audienceThis paper reviews the trends and motivations of share buyback programs and highlights the different hypotheses that motivate companies to repurchase their shares. It then explores the share buyback phenomena among Malaysian listed firms during the years from 2010 to 2015. The paper also investigates whether the Malaysian listed firms use share buyback programs to manage their earnings. Based on our manually collected data, we find that 836 firms engage in share buybacks during the period from 2010 to 2015. We employ the criteria of Hribar et al. (2006) to check whether share buyback strategies were used to manipulate earnings per share (i.e. accretive share buyback). We find that more than 75% of firms engage in accretive share buybacks at least one time during the period. Specifically, those firms undertake 637 accretive share buybacks with a value of RM 7.650 billion. This paper contributes to a better understanding of share buyback strategies in general and accretive share buybacks in the Malaysian context. Finally, our findings provide a reference point for relevant parties to improve the applicable regulations of share buyback schemes
Impact of IT integration on the firm’s knowledge absorption and desorption
No full textInternational audienceThis paper examines the impact of the integration of IT systems with other organizations (IT integration) on the knowledge absorption and desorption of the focal firm. We ran an empirical study in Spain and found that IT integration enables the firm to absorb and desorb knowledge with other organizations, which in turn improves firm performance. This research provides two key contributions to the IS discipline: 1) We introduce the concept of desorptive capacity in the IS research and provide a scale for its measure, 2) we provide a theory of IT integration impact on the firm’s knowledge absorption and desorption
A classification and review of approaches and methods for modeling uncertainty in projects
No full textInternational audienceIn this paper, we created a classification for major sources of uncertainty in projects and categorized the studies in project scheduling literature with respect to the uncertainty source(s) they address. In addition, we investigated the approaches and methods to manage uncertainty, and studied the literature regarding these methods. Project management predominantly models the randomness in duration of activities; however, studies modeling the uncertainty due to other sources are scarce. We focused on these sources of uncertainty and highlighted the promising areas of research. The results presented in this paper will help researchers to identify the research gaps in modeling project uncertainty
The prediction of future cash flows based on operating cash flows, earnings and accruals in the French context
No full textInternational audienceThis study investigates the aptitudes of the cash-based and accrual-based accounting data for predicting future cash flows from operations in the French context. In addition, our paper aims to investigate the effect of the economic crisis on the prediction of future cash flow. The sample consists of 61 non-financial French listed companies, using annual data over the period 1999–2016. The study found that, regardless of the period, the model based on the operating cash flows combined with disaggregate accruals has a stronger explanatory power for predicting future operating cash flows, compared to both earnings and operating cash flows combined with the aggregate accruals models. Moreover, our results show that the aggregation of earnings falsifies the contribution of each accrual item and, as a result, the decomposition of earnings into cash flows and disaggregate accrual enables a much more accurate explanation of future operating cash flows
On the predictability of crude oil market: A hybrid multiscale wavelet approach
No full textInternational audiencePast research indicates that forecasting is important in understanding price dynamics across assets. We explore the potentiality of multiscale forecasting in the crude oil market by employing a wavelet multiscale analysis on returns and volatilities of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil indices between January 1, 2001, and May 1, 2015. The analysis is based on a shift-invariant discrete wavelet transform, augmented by an entropy-based methodology for determining the optimal timescale decomposition under different market regimes. The empirical results show that the five-step-ahead wavelet forecast that is based on volatilities outperforms the random walk forecast, relative to the wavelet forecast that is based on returns. Optimal wavelet causality forecasting for returns is suggested across all frequencies (i.e., daily–yearly), whereas for volatilities it is suggested only up to quarterly frequencies. These results may have important implications for market efficiency and predictability of prices on the crude oil markets
Are ethanol markets globalized or regionalized?
No full textInternational audienceThis study investigates whether the US and Brazilian ethanol markets are globalized or regionalized (i.e., whether they are interdependent or independent) using weekly frequency data from July 2006 to December 2017. The empirical results indicate that the US ethanol market is unlinked to the Brazilian one in the short-run, however in the long-run they are globalized (interdependent) and co-influence each other. Asymmetric effects are identified between both ethanol markets and the Brazilian ethanol market Granger causes the US ethanol market. The findings help us understand the asymmetric dependence of the US ethanol market
Franchising in South Asia: Past, present, and future developments
No full textInternational audienceThis study represents a first comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art of the franchise industry in South Asia. The development of franchising in the seven South Asian countries of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka is outlined. A systematic overview of the franchise industry and its relatively short history in the region is created for each country, synthesizing economic and franchise infrastructure development. The study shows clear deficiencies across South Asia with regards to reliable legal regimes, specific franchise legislation and disclosure requirements, the availability of official data on franchising, and franchise education. Implications for policy makers and franchise academics conclude the analysis