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Money and monetary policy in the Eurozone: an empirical analysis during crises
No full textInternational audienceThis paper analyzes the role of money and monetary policy as well as the forecasting performance of New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with and without separability between consumption and money. The study is conducted over three crisis periods in the Eurozone, namely, the ERM crisis, the dot-com crisis, and the global financial crisis (GFC). The results of successive Bayesian estimations demonstrate that during these crises, the nonseparable model generally provides better out-of-sample output forecasts than the baseline model. We also demonstrate that money shocks have some impact on output variations during crises, especially in the case of the GFC. Furthermore, the response of output to a money shock is more persistent during the GFC than during the other crises. The impact of monetary policy also changes during crises. Insofar as the GFC is concerned, this impact increases at the beginning of the crisis, but decreases sharply thereafter
The dark side of the pressure exerted by loyalty programs on consumers: Practical and ethical issues
No full textInternational audienc
Améliorer les échanges interentreprises: quand les vertus l'emportent sur le contrôle
No full textInternational audienc
A method for emerging technology evaluation. Application to Blockchain and smart data discovery
No full textInternational audienceEmerging technologies represent a major innovation that offers significant advances to both private and public organizations. Examples of these technologies are the "Blockchain technology" which combines cryptographic mechanisms and peer-to-peer (P2P) architecture and "Smart Data Discovery" combining artificial intelligence and analytics. The importance of these emerging technologies requires the use of evalua-tion methods in order to understand their contribution and the associat-ed risks. The objective of this article is to propose a method supporting the evaluation of emerging technologies. A guidance approach is pro-posed. It is based on the recognition that emerging technologies are complex systems. Our approach combines three conceptual frame-works: the underlying theory of complex information systems, systems theory, and the ISO 25001 standard devoted to software quality. We propose a multi-criteria hierarchy which serves as the basis for the eval-uation. To illustrate this approach, we apply it to the particular cases of "Blockchain" technology and "Smart Data Discovery"
Structured Matrix Estimation and Completion
No full textWe study the problem of matrix estimation and matrix completion under a general framework. This framework includes several important models as special cases such as the gaussian mixture model, mixed membership model, bi-clustering model and dictionary learning. We consider the optimal convergence rates in a minimax sense for estimation of the signal matrix under the Frobenius norm and under the spectral norm. As a consequence of our general result we obtain minimax optimal rates of convergence for various special models
Risk Measure Estimates in Quiet and Turbulent Times:An Empirical Study
No full textIn this study we empirically explore the capacity of historical VaR to correctly predict the future risk of a financial institution. We observe that rolling samples are better able to capture the dynamics of future risks. We thus introduce another risk measure, the Sample Quantile Process, which is a generalization of the VaR calculated on a rolling sample, and study its behavior as a predictor by varying its parameters.Moreover, we study the behavior of the future risk as a function of past volatility. We show that if the past volatility is low, the historical computation of the risk measure underestimates the future risk, while in period of high volatility, the risk measure overestimates the risk, confirming that the current way financial institutions measure their risk is highly procyclical
Harmful transparency in teams
No full textIn a two-period continuous effort investment game as in Mohnen, et al. (2008), we demonstrate that peer transparency can be strictly harmful. This contrasts with Mohnen et al.'s result that transparency, through the observability of interim efforts, induces more effort and is thus beneficial if team members are inequity-averse. If, instead, preferences are standard utilitarian, the marginal benefit is decreasing and marginal cost is increasing in a player's own effort, then players' collective and individual efforts are strictly less with transparency than under non-transparency
Appointements to central bank boards : does gender matter ?
No full textThis paper provides the first systematic analysis of the evolution of female and male appointments to central bank boards. We build a novel and unique dataset that tracks appointments and replacements in a balanced panel of 26 OECD central bank boards from 2003 to 2015. We find that the likelihood of appointing a female is higher when a female rather than a male is being replaced and lower when the percentage of women on the board is already high
Kojève : L'homme qui voulait tout savoir
No full textAlexandre Kojève thought suffers from the provocative way the philosopher initially insisted on the notion of End of History. Alexandre Kojève philosophical enquiry fairly overcomes this notion, towards a comprehensive understanding of the whole human life. This understanding particularly involves a breakthrough concerning the understanding of the most advanced sciences of our time. Understanding Kojeve thought consequently demands not only to understand his thought on the final historical Law (see An Outline of a Phenomenology of Right), but what Kojève called the “objective reality” as well.La pensée d’Alexandre Kojève souffre du malentendu initial que provoqua l’insistance du philosophe sur la Fin de l’Histoire. L’interrogation philosophique de Kojève déborde plus que largement cette question, en direction d’une compréhension totale de l’homme et du « monde où l’on vit », compréhension impliquant une épistémologie fondamentale propre à éclairer le devenir des sciences les plus avancées de notre temps. C’est donc à la fois comme pensée du Droit ultime de l’Histoire (cf Esquisse d’une phénoménologie du Droit) et de ce que Kojève appelle la « Réalité objective », que la pensée du philosophe qui se disait sage gagne à être abordée pour être comprise