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Résilience géopolitique des nations : Un modèle systémique de puissance, souveraineté et fragilité stratégique
No full textThis paper proposes a systemic analytical framework for studying the geopolitical resilience of nations in an international environment characterized by geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and disruptions in global supply chains.
We introduce a composite indicator of national resilience based on the interaction between three structural dimensions: structural power, strategic sovereignty, and geopolitical fragility. The proposed model defines the National Resilience Index (IRN) as the product of structural power, an index of global strategic sovereignty, and a corrective factor capturing geopolitical fragilities.
The framework allows the identification of critical resilience thresholds separating stable geopolitical configurations from zones of systemic vulnerability. We derive the analytical properties of the model, including the resilience gradient and the conditions under which a nation remains above the critical stability frontier.
The paper also proposes an early-warning indicator of geopolitical crises as well as a dynamic extension allowing the evolution of national resilience to be analyzed over time.
Overall, the model contributes to the emerging literature on geoeconomics and systemic resilience by proposing a unified analytical framework linking national power, strategic sovereignty, and structural vulnerabilities
Economic strutural change 1986-2025
No full textThis study investigates the evolving structure of Vietnam’s economy after ĐổiMới by analyzing output, value-added, and import multipliers for the years 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2012, 2019, and 2025. Unlike conventional approaches, multipliers are decomposed into intra-industry effects and spillover effects components, capturing direct, indirect, and inter-industry feedback loops effects and spillover effects for output, value added, and imports. The results reveal substantial shifts in industrial roles and highlight previously underappreciated channels through which economic activity propagates. By distinguishing these components, the analysis identifies sectors with disproportionate influence on production and trade, offering a refined perspective on structural transformation. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to streng then sectoral linkages, enhance value-added generation, and strategically manage import dependence in a rapidly evolving economic landscape
The disbalances concept as an alternative to the market failure concept for the outline market inability
No full textThe problem of identification of efficient economic conditions, arising from the «horizontal» agents’ relationship, is considered. It’s shown that the application of classical concept of market failure is insufficient. The alternative concept of disbalances are examined. The greater universality and convenience of the “quantitative” concept of disbalances for identifying the effectiveness of states formed in the process of mutual activity of economic subjects, compared to the concepts of market failure, was substantiated. In particular, it allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of the market relationship of agents according
A Foot in the Door: Seller Preferences for Surcharges
No full textThis paper studies hold-ups in markets where sellers may impose undisclosed surcharges. While prior work has examined price transparency’s role in market outcomes, the distinct effect of a transparency norm—separate from a fairness norm—remains unestablished. We formulate a simple model that separates these norms and characterizes their equilibrium implications across different market settings. The model shows that price competition yields higher buyer surplus than ultimatum bargaining and that this surplus increases with transparency concerns but decreases with fairness concerns because of softened competition. Compulsory surcharges cannot be higher in bargaining, as sellers prefer a higher price to a higher surcharge as long as it does not change the buyer’s probability of acceptance. Experimental results confirm the transparency norm’s influence: Total prices are lower with price competition, and surcharges are lower with ultimatum bargaining. Additionally, surcharges rise when pricing is outside of the seller’s control. Estimates of the behavioral parameters reveal that sellers weigh transparency at least as heavily as fairness. The results imply that firms fearing hold-ups should still procure goods and services in competitive market structures
Análisis de los efectos del teletrabajo sobre el bienestar: Evidencia para Polonia
No full textThis paper analyses the effects of teleworking on the well-being of the Polish population in 2021. The study does not focus only on well-being, but also attempts to estimate the effect on depression and work-life balance among the population under study. For this purpose, data from the European Working Conditions Surveys (EWCS) for 2021 were used, considering demographic variables in the regression models. The findings of this study show that teleworking had a negative effect on the general well-being of the population and significantly increased symptoms of depression. On the other hand, no statistical significance was found in the effects of teleworking on a good work-life balance, with the most relevant explanatory variables being the presence of children and the workload, measured in hours worked. However, it is important to note that the explanatory power of these models is limited, so the estimates made do not capture the most relevant explanatory factors. Once this clarification has been made, the results obtained in this study suggest that teleworking has had negative consequences on mental health in Poland in 2021, especially for women
Digital transformation, financial openness and economic growth
No full textThis study examines the combined impact of financial openness and digital transformation on economic growth, distinguishing between developed and emerging countries.
Although these two factors have been widely studied separately, their interaction has not been explicitly addressed in existing literature. This study aims to fill this research gap by analyzing their joint effects on economic growth.
Our study covers a sample of 37 countries, including 17 emerging and 20 developed economies, over the period 2010–2023. The main finding of this study highlights that the interaction between financial openness and digital transformation produces differentiated effects depending on the level of development. For emerging economies, the negative and statistically significant effect suggests that, without strong institutions or mature digital infrastructures, this interaction may exacerbate economic vulnerabilities. For developed countries, the absence of significance indicates that, despite a slight negative tendency, their robust systems help absorb the potential adverse effects of this interaction
The Output Gap: Method Choice, Data Revisions, and Policy Implications
No full textThis paper compares eight widely used methods for estimating the output gap, ranging from simple deterministic trends to state space models, using both revised and real time U.S. quarterly data from 1980 onward. The resulting measures differ heavily across approaches. Average gap estimates vary by nearly four percentage points, volatility differs by an order of magnitude, and correlations across methods span from strongly positive to negative. Stability across data vintages also varies substantially. Hamilton type filters show relatively strong agreement between real time and final estimates, while simpler trend based methods are considerably less stable. These differences matter for empirical inference. The choice of output gap measure has important implications for Phillips curve estimates and for forecasting performance. Beveridge Nelson decompositions display strong predictive power for inflation when estimated using revised data but perform less well in real time, whereas refined Beveridge Nelson and modified Hamilton filters deliver more consistent results across vintages. Time varying analysis shows that the relationship between economic slack and inflation strengthens during periods of macroeconomic stress, including the early 1990s recession, the global financial crisis, and the post-pandemic period, rather than declining monotonically. For output growth forecasting, HP filter gaps reduce forecast errors using revised data, while unobserved components models perform best in real time. Although Beveridge Nelson based measures are informative for inflation, they tend to worsen growth forecasts. Combining forecasts across gap measures, particularly using Bates Granger weights, yields more reliable performance by offsetting weaknesses of individual methods. Overall, the findings highlight that methodological uncertainty in measuring slack translates directly into policy uncertainty, cautioning against exclusive reliance on any single output gap estimate
Disequilibrium Inflation
No full textI construct a model that examines the behavior of the inflation rate considering multiple functions of money. The model demonstrates that Taylor Rules are effective when the inflation rate moves to the same direction with regard to money as a medium of exchange and a storage of value. Under deflation, these two functions of money diverge oppositely and that leads to a liquidity trap which the economy struggles to escape
La stabilisation monétaire en république démocratique du Congo: personnalité des décideurs et chances de succès
No full textThis study examines monetary stabilization in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) by highlighting
the role of policymakers’ personality traits in shaping the likelihood of stabilization success over the period
1995–2024. While conventional monetary theories primarily attribute price stability to the control of
monetary aggregates, this research argues that policymakers’ behavioral characteristics constitute a key
determinant of policy effectiveness. The analysis focuses on integrity as a measurable dimension of
personality, proxied by the ratio of monetary financing of the Treasury to fiscal revenues.
Using annual data from the Central Bank of Congo and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
approach, the results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among inflation, money supply growth,
integrity, and external balance variables. Monetary expansion significantly affects inflation in both the short
and long run. However, the inflationary impact of money growth is conditional on the degree of integrity
embodied by policymakers. Higher institutional discipline reduces inflationary transmission and increases
the probability of successful stabilization. These findings suggest that sustainable price stability depends not
only on technical monetary instruments but also on governance quality and policymaker credibility
University-Based Legal Clinics as Engines of Access to Justice in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines: A Comparative Study of Clinical Legal Education Models
No full textThis study examines university-based legal clinics in the Zamboanga Peninsula, Philippines, as engines of access to justice and experiential legal education. It compares clinical legal education models at six institutions—Andres Bonifacio Colleges, Ateneo de Zamboanga University, J.H. Cerilles State College, Jose Rizal Memorial State University, Saint Columban College, and Western Mindanao State University—between 2019 and 2024. Using publicly available data, CLEP directories, and institutional sources, the study analyzes clinic structures, student engagement, service delivery, and community impact. Findings reveal variability in documentation, program implementation, and outreach. Clinics at ABC, AdZU, and WMSU demonstrate structured engagement through client consultations, legal drafting, and community education aligned with CLEP requirements. Less documented clinics show limited visibility and service tracking, highlighting gaps in reporting and institutional support. Student involvement ranges from 8 to 40 participants per clinic, with weekly engagement between two and seven hours, contributing to practical legal competencies. Case output trends indicate incremental increases, with WMSU recording the highest volume of client services. The study concludes that university clinics enhance access to justice, strengthen experiential learning, and support marginalized communities, while emphasizing the need for standardized reporting, resource allocation, and regional collaboration. Policy and institutional strategies can optimize clinic outputs and ensure sustainable CLEP implementation in the region