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A Political Economy Reinterpretation of Bangladesh’s Development Trajectory: From Structural Fragility to Transformative Growth
No full textThis paper develops a comprehensive and analytically rigorous reinterpretation of Bangladesh’s development trajectory through the lens of political economy and structural transformation theory. It examines the transition from post-war economic fragility to sustained growth, emphasizing macroeconomic stability, export-led industrialization, remittance dynamics, agricultural modernization, and social development outcomes. Drawing on the full body of existing literature cited in the original manuscript, the analysis integrates institutional, structural, and global dimensions into a unified explanatory framework. While Bangladesh’s development record reflects resilience and adaptive policy capacity, enduring constraints related to governance, inequality, environmental vulnerability, and institutional quality raise important questions regarding the long-term sustainability of its growth model
Global Economic Cycles Unveiled: A Hybrid TCN-HMM Approach for Regime Dynamics Across Eight Nations
No full textThis study developed a hybrid Temporal Convolutional Network and Hidden Markov Model (TCN-HMM) framework to identify economic regimes across eight nations: Brazil, China, Egypt, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, United Kingdom, and United States, using GDP, inflation, policy rates, equity indices, exchange rates, and yield curve factors. The method integrated MSSA-smoothed data with a TCN autoencoder to extract multi-scale temporal features, optimized through sensitivity analysis, followed by an HMM to classify three regimes: Natural State, Substantial Growth, and Restrictive Policy. The TCN-HMM outperformed standalone HMMs in capturing non-linear dynamics and temporal dependencies. Key findings highlighted several insights. Twelve extracted features were optimal, outperforming eight features (the number of original variables), implying that the TCN enhanced regime differentiation through a richer feature representation. Furthermore, the framework demonstrated generalizability across the panel, as developing markets like Brazil and Egypt exhibited volatile inflation, while developed economies showed stable policy transmission. Finally, CHI maintained very high growth rates across all regimes, and currencies across the panel showed a high correlation with real interest rates rather than with overall economic conditions, reflecting their sensitivity to capital-flow dynamics
The Health Costs of Civil Conflict
No full textThis paper considers the health consequences of civil conflict . It undertakes a cross-national analysis of the World Health Organisation's (WHO)'s disability-adjusted life years (DALY) dataset for 2020. The log of the DALYs is regressed on measures of conflict experience over the ten previous years, allowing for political and economic factors and spillovers from neighbour’s conflicts. This is done by using a non linear model and principal components estimation procedures. Substantial and significant effects are found. This supports earlier notions that civil war disproportionally affects children and young people. Robustness checks are made for different measurements of conflict experience, reflecting conflict intensity and persistence and these strengthen the conclusion that the legacy costs of a civil conflict are substantial and longlasting
Bienestar, depresión y conciliación entre la vida laboral y personal de los trabajadores: impacto del teletrabajo en el caso de Francia
No full textTeleworking is an increasingly widespread practice, which has led to permanent changes in labour markets around the world. In France, as well as in other European countries, there are specific regulations to ensure equal rights between remote and on-site workers. The study aims to analyze the impact of teleworking on three dimensions associated with worker well-being: subjective well-being, depression and work-life balance, in the specific case of France. By introducing sociodemographic and occupational controls into the regressions, the results show that teleworking has no statistically significant effects, whereas variables such as gender, parenthood and place of residence, among others, do
Fertility, childbearing age, and education
No full textThis paper develops a simple, analytically tractable model of fertility and education in which individuals live for three periods. A distinguishing feature of the model is that adulthood consists of two periods, and individuals can have children in both periods. The periods differ in that parents can have a choice on their own education (corresponding to higher education) in the first period of adulthood, while in the second period, they do not have such an option and instead face higher costs of rearing and education of their children.
We examine how well the model can explain the major changes in fertility and education since the early 20th century in countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. qualitatively. The model effectively accounts for trends in fertility among younger and older mothers, total fertility, and the secondary and higher education of young cohorts, with parameter changes capturing possible factors that contributed to the evolution of fertility rates, as proposed in the literature or suggested by empirical evidence
Illuminating Economic Activity: Evidence from Night Lights Data in South Africa
No full textThis paper explores the use of night lights to track economic activity in South Africa at a level of spatial granularity and periodic frequency not obtainable by traditional indicators. It shows mismatches between urban population density, economic activity and infrastructure. We show that satellite data suggest very low growth in night light intensity across South Africa over the last decade and a decoupling from economic and population growth. We show that satellite data sheds light on the implications of the collapse of state service delivery and South Africa's decline in GDP per capita over the last decade. The most likely explanation of the slow growth in night light intensity in South Africa is municipal infrastructural degradation, observed in the breakdown of a large proportion of streetlights. Other possibilities include a shift to solar and off‐grid electricity supply, the decline in industrial and manufacturing production in South Africa, or improvements in energy efficiency. However, the shift to more efficient lighting technologies does not explain why night lights has grown so much more in fast growing developing countries. These results reveal a lack of densification in urban areas that contribute to higher transportation costs and reservation wages, discriminating against job creation and efficient service provision. Our results raise questions about the depth of South Africa's structural slowdown, the ability of traditional indicators to fully capture shifts in spatial economic vibrancy, and the impacts of urban planning policies on economic efficiency and development
Where geopolitical risk binds: Stockpiling and AI as complementary strategies for mitigating supply chain risk in critical minerals
No full textWe develop novel, stage-specific, geopolitical risk indicators to examine how geopolitical risk is distributed across the supply-chain for lithium and copper, two minerals which are vital for low-carbon technologies. We find that refining is the geopolitical bottleneck for both minerals, reflecting that refining capacity is highly concentrated in China. We examine refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and AI-driven productivity gains as complementary policy instruments for mitigating exposure to geopolitical risk at the refining stage. We show that reducing China’s refining share substantially lowers refining-stage geopolitical risk, with larger gains for lithium than for copper. We find that stockpiling plays a critical role in buffering near-term geopolitical shocks, but significantly increases the projected shortfall in copper and lithium which is needed to realize the clean energy transition under alternative Net Zero pathways. We demonstrate that AI-driven productivity gains will be needed to narrow the projected supply gaps for both minerals. Our results suggest that ensuring effective security of critical minerals requires a coordinated policy mix, combining refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and productivity-enhancing technological change
Use-Specific Storage Premia and Market Stabilization for Critical Minerals in the Presence of Geopolitical Risk
No full textThis paper examines how geopolitical risk affects metal prices and stockpiling when demand is unevenly distributed across end uses. We develop a Theory of Use-Specific Storage Premia, which posits that demand concentration and limited redeployability raise effective storage costs and weaken the stabilizing role of inventories/stockpiling. Using deterioration in United States–China political relations as a shock to forward-looking demand expectations, we estimate price and inventory responses for metals with well-established markets. Broad-use metals exhibit significant price declines and precautionary stockpiling following geopolitical deterioration, while use-specific metals display muted responses. Cross-sectional evidence links these patterns directly to use-specificity. The results imply that traditional stockpiling is structurally less effective for battery-linked critical minerals subject to geopolitical risk
Growth dynamics and environmental pressure in Greece: Investigating the validity of EKC hypothesis
No full textThis study investigates the dynamic, long-run relationships between environmental degradation, measured by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and a comprehensive set of macroeconomic determinants, including economic growth (GDP), energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization in Greece. Utilizing annual time-series data spanning the period 1970–2014, determines the direction of causality among variables. The empirical results provide strong evidence for the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables. Specifically, the findings do not validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Greek economy, identifying a statistically significant N-shaped relationship where environmental degradation initially rises with economic expansion before reaching a structural turning point (local maximun), subsequently declining reaching a second turning point (local minimum), followed by an additional rise. The causal analysis reveals a unidirectional linkage flowing from economic growth and energy consumption to CO2 in the long run, suggesting that Greece’s historical growth model has been energy-intensive. From a policy perspective, the study concludes that for Greece to sustain its downward environmental trajectory, it must shift toward a high-efficiency energy mix and decouple its GDP growth from carbon-intensive industrial activities, aligning with broader European Union climate mandates and the global transition toward a low-carbon economy
Futures Thinking and Strategic Foresight in Local Governance: Institutional and Local Government Leadership Challenges and Policy Options in Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines
No full textLocal governments face compound uncertainty from demographic change, climate risk, fiscal pressure, and security threats. Futures thinking and strategic foresight offer governance tools that help public institutions anticipate disruption and guide long-term policy choice. This article examines the institutional adoption of futures thinking and strategic foresight within local governments in the Zamboanga Peninsula (Region IX), Philippines. The study assesses leadership capacity, organizational readiness, planning practice, and intergovernmental coordination across provinces and cities in the region. The analysis uses official administrative data, development plans, budget records, and key informant evidence from provincial and city governments. Findings show that Region IX local governments rely on compliance-driven planning cycles, short-term investment programming, and fragmented data systems. Executive leadership turnover, limited technical staff, and weak foresight mandates constrain institutional learning. Local governments align plans with national frameworks yet lack anticipatory governance tools that support scenario building, horizon scanning, and adaptive policy design. The article presents a data-driven institutional matrix that maps foresight capacity across governance functions. Policy options focus on leadership development, statutory integration of foresight in local planning, regional knowledge platforms, and incentives within intergovernmental fiscal systems. The study contributes empirical evidence to local governance scholarship by linking futures thinking to leadership practice in a developing country context