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Симметричная модель экономического равновесия: диалог с искусственным интеллектом
No full textThe book Symmetric Model of Economic Equilibrium: Dialogue with Artificial Intelligence is a unique experiment that blends economic theory with cutting-edge technology. It consists of a record of dialogues between the author and the artificial intelligence system Grok 3, with the central theme being the exploration of the Symmetric Model of Economic Equilibrium. This model introduces a novel perspective on the economy as a self-regulating system, where micro- and macro-levels are interconnected through cyclical flows and feedback loops, ensuring its integrity and adaptability.The book includes chat sessions in which the AI evaluates the model’s mathematical rigor, economic logic, and practical significance. It examines the model’s advantages over traditional approaches and its potential applications in economic policy and the development of analytical tools. The dialogue underscores the value of an interdisciplinary approach, integrating economic theory, dialectics, second-order cybernetics, and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. It illustrates how engaging with AI can enhance the understanding of complex economic processes and provide fresh momentum for further research in this field.
The book is aimed at economists, AI researchers, and anyone interested in innovative directions for the advancement of economic science
La desconfiguración del orden mundial y los aranceles: Efectos sobre la economía de Galicia.
No full textOn November 5, 2024, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election and, in February 2025, announced new tariffs, defending them as a way to make America "great and rich" again. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods that increase prices, affect consumers and businesses, and cause negative effects such as inflation, reduced investment, and greater uncertainty.
Spain is one of the European economies with the least direct exposure to the United States, although it is not free from risk; in 2024, it exported goods worth €18.379 billion, compared to Germany's €161 billion. In Galicia, the external sector is highly concentrated geographically and by industry. Its exports to the U.S. amounted to €2.093 billion, 4.5% of Spain's total, below Galicia’s overall weight in national foreign trade (6.6%).
The impact of additional tariffs on Galician exports is relatively small. Specifically, if tariffs increased by 20%, Galicia’s economy would see a 0.20% drop in GDP, plus an additional 0.09% due to the effect on supplies to European exporters. The total impact would be a 0.29% decrease in GDP—lower than the expected impact on the Spanish economy (0.31%) and that of the Basque Country (0.66%) and Catalonia (0.36%)
Consumer Sentiment and Identity Politics: Evidence from India
No full textWe study how shifts in political power affect economic sentiment and consumption behavior in identity-polarized settings. Using panel data from more than 178,000 Indian households, we find
that sentiment about personal finances - but not the national economy - predicts household expenditure, even after controlling for income growth. Exploiting close elections, we find that Muslim
households become more pessimistic after electoral victories by the Hindu nationalist party, especially about national conditions. However, this divergence in sentiment is not associated with
corresponding differences in spending. A simple Bayesian learning model explains this disconnect through limited transmission from macro beliefs to personal expectations
The place of Europe in the global political economy
No full textThis is an ugly paper. It does not cover a well-defined problem area and it ignores all conventional rules usually prescribed to make a text an easy reading. The only excuse for this is that its topic - Europe - is in an ugly situation too.
In most papers the goal to be reached is kept at a modest level, if it is mentioned at all. The goal of this paper is rather all-embracing: It starts by distinguishing the two old enemies: the racist vision of society and the humanist vision of society. So, before bringing Europe into focus the paper unveils its ground colour - humanism. To determine this starting point the text already has to stretch out into many transdisciplinary directions.
Then Europe’s immediate past - which events brought it into its current situation? - is interpreted. The interpretation does not pretend that it can disentangle facts from speculative issues - no interpretation can, another ugly fact. But it tries hard to make sense.
The following largest part of the paper works with metaphors to bring home an idea of the dangers Europeans are currently confronted with: Skylla and Charybdis. A wide variety of themes are touched upon.
In the last chapter the unavoidable feeling that the free-wheeling arguments and metaphors left too many open ends is to be heeled by an explicit return to pragmatics: What should we do? And this - finally - is the necessary root of the ugliness of this paper: It was written years before the dust of theoretical and pragmatic battles was set to let a better hindsight get ground
The Equality of the Natural Rates of Interest, Inflation and Economic growth, and Its Implications for Monetary Policy
No full textThis paper considers the role of savings as that of managing the tradeoff between the amount consumed of present varieties and the investment into improving the quality of varieties in the future. Under this framework, it is shown that the rates of interest, inflation and economic growth are equal and derived from the same phenomenon: innovation. Consequently, this leads to a monetary policy recommendation, namely to attempt to bind the rates of inflation and interest to the directly observable real rate of economic growth
Market-Based Portfolio Variance
No full textThe investor, who holds his portfolio and doesn’t trade his shares, at current time can use the time series of the market trades that were made during the averaging interval with the securities of his portfolio to assess the current variance of the portfolio. We show how the time series of trades with the securities of the portfolio determine the time series of trades with the portfolio as a single market security. The time series of portfolio trades determine the return and variance of the portfolio in the same form as the time series of trades with securities determine their returns and variances. The description of any portfolio and any single market security is equal. The time series of portfolio trades define the decomposition of the portfolio variance by its securities. If the volumes of trades with all securities are assumed constant, the decomposition of the portfolio variance coincides with Markowitz’s (1952) expression of variance. However, the real markets expose random volumes of trades. The portfolio variance that accounts for the randomness of trade volumes is a polynomial of the 4th degree in the variables of relative amounts invested into securities and with the coefficients different from covariances of securities returns. We discuss the possible origin of the latent and unintended assumption that Markowitz (1952) made to derive his result. Our description of the portfolio variance that accounts for the randomness of real trade volumes could help the portfolio managers and the majors like BlackRock’s Aladdin and Asimov, JP Morgan, and the U.S. Fed to adjust their models and forecasts to the reality of random markets
Exploratory Study on How Substance Use Affects Gambling and Spending Among Students
No full textThis research examines the connection between gambling behavior and substance use among youths, with special interest regarding gender difference and the cost of gambling. With a representative sample of 700 high school students aged between ages of 14 and 18 years, the research utilized structured questionnaires to collect information. Respondents indicated their participation on gambling, ranging from slot and scratch cards to internet gambling and sports betting, and their use of psychoactive drugs. Analysis identifies a strong, statistically significant connection between gambling and use of substances, particularly among respondents who use slot gambling or sport betting. For the entire sample, 19.7% gambled and 24% took substances. Use of substances, particularly psychoactive drugs and tobacco use, were much more prevalent among gamblers compared with non-gamblers, and an associated pattern, particularly among males, unveiled much more salient features. Log odds ratio and Fisher’s exact test analysis uncovered much elevated probabilities of use of substances among gamblers, particularly among slot machine users, with odds ratios higher than 2.0 among some female subgroups. Nevertheless, internet gambling could not demonstrate strong associations with use of substances, but there revealed an evident modest positive connection among men users. Data on expenditure unveiled the majority of young persons pay less than €10 monthly on gambling, but there exists a small group with much elevated expenditure. These respondents accounted for the size of the right-skewed distribution and may demonstrate burgeoning signs of harmful gambling. Prevention and detection are highlighted with special interest regarding gender-specific behavior. Recommendations are combined, integrated prevention among young persons within schools and communities, especially regarding gambling and use of substances during youth
Why Rural Residents Do Not Migrate: The Hidden Welfare Costs of Rural-Urban Migration
No full textA persistent puzzle in developing economies is why rural households remain in low-productivity agricultural sectors despite the substantial income gaps with non-agricultural opportunities. While existing studies attribute this gap to market frictions, institutional barriers, and differences in human capital, this paper shifts the focus to household-level welfare trade-offs, specifically, the non-pecuniary welfare losses borne by family members left behind when working-age individuals migrate. We develop a theoretical framework to show how such hidden costs affect labor reallocation and how they can be quantified empirically. Leveraging China's Grain for Green (GFG) Program--a nationwide conservation policy that induced farmland retirement in exchange for subsidies, we show that the policy led to significant increases in migration and non-agricultural labor, especially among women and younger individuals. Using revealed preference logic, we estimate that hidden migration costs amount to 10.5--12.6% of total household income for policy-induced migrants. Drawing on rich survey data, we trace these costs to two key sources: disruptions to children's education and reduced caregiving capacity for elderly household members. These findings highlight the need for policies that ease the burden of migrating with dependents, such as removing restrictions on education and healthcare access in destination areas
Semer la croissance: Libérer le potentiel des bourses de produits agricoles en Afrique subsaharienne
No full textThe establishment of commodity exchanges offers significant advantages for low-income, agriculturally dependent countries seeking to enhance export performance. A notable example is the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX), which contributed to a substantial increase in coffee exports, benefiting producers through expanded export volumes and diversified market access. Similarly, in May 2025, Côte d’Ivoire launched West Africa’s first agricultural commodities exchange, supported by the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM)—the common securities market for the eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Initially, this exchange lists cashew nuts, kola nuts, and maize, with plans to expand trading to cocoa and approximately twenty additional commodities in the future. Africa currently hosts 38 stock exchanges across 29 national capital markets, 22 of which are members of the African Securities Exchanges Association (ASEA). Among these, 12 countries facilitate agricultural commodity trading: South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Uganda. Commodity exchanges in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) play a pivotal role in strengthening market structures by improving market access, mitigating price volatility, and integrating smallholder farmers into formal economic systems. Despite structural challenges—such as infrastructural deficits and capacity-building needs—these platforms demonstrate considerable potential for fostering sustainable agricultural development in the region. Empirical evidence suggests that while market capitalization negatively impacts agricultural growth, the value of traded stocks exerts a positive influence. Consequently, governments in African emerging economies should prioritize capital market expansion to stimulate growth through agricultural value addition. Policy frameworks that bolster investor confidence via institutional strengthening and stock market development are essential. However, it is equally critical to recognize the potential for cross-market risk transmission, given the continent’s heavy reliance on commodities and the interdependence between stock market performance and macroeconomic stability. Risk transmission arises when information dissemination is delayed or incomplete, leading to contagion effects where adverse market sentiment spreads irrespective of local conditions. Notably, commodity prices and exchange rate fluctuations exhibit bidirectional risk transmission with SSA stock markets, particularly over the long term. Thus, shifts in these variables can significantly influence stock market volatility in the region
The day after the dollar
No full textThe international monetary system based on the US dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency has become in recent years risky and unreliable tool of international financial relations. In addition, confidence in the dollar is falling worldwide. These reasons lead to a transformation of the international currency system, primarily aimed at getting rid of the dominance of the US dollar. This transformation is still at the very beginning and it is unclear where it will come. The purpose of this paper is to consider possible directions of the transformation. This is not an attempt at forecasting, but an analysis of potential scenarios with assessments of the feasibility of their implementation. We are discussing a range of possible paths for transforming the international monetary system. One end of the range is the creation of a single supranational currency based on the reformation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The other end is the disintegration of the single currency system, which is partly already underway. In between is a return to the gold standard and the displacement of the US dollar by renminbi. However, an unpredictable option due the digitalization of currencies is also possible