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Bayesian inference for dynamic spatial quantile models with interactive effects
No full textWith the rapid advancement of information technology and data collection systems, large-scale spatial panel data presents new methodological and computational challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic spatial panel quantile model that incorporates unobserved heterogeneity. The proposed model captures the dynamic structure of panel data, high-dimensional cross-sectional dependence, and allows for heterogeneous regression coefficients. To estimate the model, we propose a novel Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Contributions to Bayesian computation include the development of quantile randomization, a new Gibbs sampler for structural parameters, and stabilization of the tail behavior of the inverse Gaussian random generator. We establish Bayesian consistency for the proposed estimation method as both the time and cross-sectional dimensions of the panel approach infinity. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Finally, we illustrate the applicability of the approach through a case study on the quantile co-movement structure of the gasoline market
Strategic crypto reserves: A new era for crypto currency regulation and central bank digital currencies?
No full textThe executive order signed by President Donald J Trump on the 6th March 2025, which establishes a U.S crypto currency reserve, “creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that will treat bitcoin as a reserve asset.”
Whilst there are enthusiasts in favor of the recent move, there are also concerns about how it will be implemented – as well as implications for taxpayers in the event of a collapse in prices. Concerns are consolidated further, primarily because there are several Bills still being considered in Congress – compounded with recent developments and turbulence in the crypto assets sector. Further concerns, primarily relate to governmental and political interference with the central bank’s role in monetary policy setting and, regulatory uncertainties.
This paper considers, as well as highlights, why the central bank’s independence is pivotal to its functions. Whilst close collaboration with the executive, and the legislature, are also essential to its functioning, the section also highlights the immense contributions that can be derived from crypto currencies and stable coins – when adequately regulated. The third section then considers main issues to be addressed. This will be followed by a conclusive section
Conspicuous Destruction: Energy Transition in Germany
No full textThis paper examines whether conspicuous destruction—typically observed in small groups or individuals—can emerge as a behavioral pattern in large, democratic societies. Using Germany’s energy transition as a case study, it explores how politically legitimized decisions lead to the dismantling and devaluation of existing energy infrastructure, including nuclear power plants and fossil fuel systems. This visible devaluation and destruction serve as political and social signals of Germany’s commitment to a green economy. The paper identifies three interrelated motives driving this process: the pursuit of status, the demonstration of power, and the display of economic wealth. These motives, commonly observed in small groups, help explain similar behavioral patterns in national policymaking within the energy sector
Digitalisation, fiscalité verte et capacités énergétiques : une analyse de la Qualité Environnementale en Afrique du nord à l’aide de l’approche CS-ARDL
No full textRésumé : Cet article examine l’impact de la digitalisation, des recettes fiscales environnementales et des capacités énergétiques sur la qualité environnementale en Afrique du Nord, en se concentrant sur l’Égypte, le Maroc et la Tunisie. En s’appuyant sur la courbe environnementale de Kuznets, l’étude intègre l’essor des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) et la fiscalité verte pour analyser leur influence sur la relation entre croissance économique et dégradation environnementale.
À l’aide d’un modèle CS-ARDL, l’analyse distingue les effets à court et long terme. Les résultats montrent qu’une hausse du PIB entraîne d’abord une augmentation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Toutefois, au-delà d’un seuil critique, la fiscalité environnementale et l’amélioration des infrastructures énergétiques et numériques réduisent progressivement ces émissions.
Ces résultats soulignent que la transformation numérique, combinée à une fiscalité verte efficace et aux technologies émergentes (IA, IoT, réalité augmentée et virtuelle), constitue un levier stratégique pour atténuer l’impact environnemental d’une croissance soutenue en Afrique du Nord.
Abstract: The present article examines the impact of digitization, environmental tax revenues and energy capacity on environmental quality in North Africa, focusing on Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Utilising the Kuznets environmental curve, the study integrates the rise of information and communication technologies (ICT) and green taxation to analyse their influence on the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation.
Utilising a CS-ARDL model, the analysis differentiates between short- and long-term effects. The study's findings indicate that an augmentation in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is associated with an initial escalation in greenhouse gas emissions. However, beyond a critical threshold, the implementation of environmental taxation, coupled with the advancement of energy and digital infrastructures, leads to a gradual decline in these emissions.
The findings emphasise that digital transformation, in conjunction with effective green taxation and emerging technologies (AI, IoT, augmented and virtual reality), can serve as a strategic lever for mitigating the environmental impact of sustained growth in North Africa
Dynamics and measurement error in household income data collected with single questions
No full textI provide insights into the dynamics of income collected in surveys using single questions, by extending to longitudinal settings a measurement error model previously developed in the literature. In this framework, single-question income data are validated against a benchmark provided by detailed source-by-source questions, which are considered the best practice for measuring income in surveys. I outline the assumptions required to infer benchmark income changes between two time periods (e.g., two subsequent survey waves), both at the macro- and micro-levels, when income is collected using single questions. Potential heterogeneity in respondents’ misreporting behaviour in single questions and its implications in longitudinal settings are also discussed. I apply the methodology to estimate income changes in Italy between 2022 and 2023, using data from a new web-survey conducted by the Bank of Italy. Dynamics and measurement error in household income data collected with single questions
Polarization in Higher Education and Technological Leadership
No full textThis paper highlights the role of polarization in higher education as a key factor to technological leadership as well as to labor market inequality.
Higher education polarization refers to the widening gap between elite and non-elite universities, primarily in two dimensions: institutional quality and the tightness of student recruitment. This paper introduces a model to analyze the impact of polarization and presents new indices that measure polarization within the higher education system.
The model emphasizes that disparities in university quality and recruitment tightness influence a country's technological leadership. Specifically, nations with a high "polarization gap" in higher education tend to lead in technology but also experience higher levels of inequality.
In the empirical analysis, we construct indices that measure the polarization gap both in quality and tightness of recruitment as well as an index for leadership in technology. These indices are a new contribution to the field of higher education. The findings reveal a positive correlation between the polarization gap, technological leadership, and inequality among OECD countries.
In consequence, this paper shows that a nation implementing a public education policy, which establishes a significant dichotomy between top-tier universities and standard ones, may stimulate progress and technological leadership, at the price of inequality
Gasoline price pass-through into CPI inflation: Evidence from Structure VAR
No full textWe apply a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the impact of oil and exchange rate shocks on Japan’s gasoline prices and, furthermore, Japan’s gasoline price pass-through into CPI inflation. In addition to the traditional zero and sign restrictions, we adopt a Bayesian framework, which provides a broader set of credible regions. After evaluating the influence of oil supply shocks, economic activity shocks, oil-specific demand shocks, and exchange rate shocks, we found evidence that an increase in gasoline prices is associated with a positive economic activity shock and oil-specific demand shock. On the other hand, the impact of any of the above shocks was not observed on the Japanese consumer price index from the estimated results
How the Liberation Day Announcement is Shaping the Global Trade Order : Recent Developments in Financial Stability, Macroprudential Arrangements, and Shadow Banking
No full textOn the 20th December 2023, the Financial Stability Board published revised policy recommendations to address structural vulnerabilities from liquidity mismatch in open ended funds (OEFs). Main points which were highlighted in relation to new recommendations include the following:
- Revised FSB recommendations and IOSCO Guidance on Anti Dilution Liquidity Management Tools (LMTs), which are aimed at achieving significant strengthening of liquidity management by open ended funds (OEFs), compared to current practices.
Despite Basel III’s efforts to address capital and liquidity requirements, will the risks linked to regulatory arbitrage increase as a result of Basel III’s more stringent capital and liquidity rules?
Apart from Basel III reforms which are geared toward greater facilitation of financial stability on a macroprudential basis, further efforts and initiatives aimed at mitigating systemic risks, hence fostering financial stability, have been promulgated through the establishment of the De Larosiere Group, the ESRB, and a working group comprising of “international standard setters and authorities responsible for the translation of G20 commitments into standards.”
This paper aims to investigate the impact of Basel III on shadow banking and its facilitation of regulatory arbitrage as well as consider the response of various jurisdictions and standard setting bodies to aims and initiatives aimed at improving their macroprudential frameworks
P-Values on the Free-Slave State Border: A Critique of Bleakley and Rhode
No full textHoyt Bleakley and Paul Rhode use a “regression discontinuity design” (RDD) to find a persistent negative effect of slavery’s legality on rural population density throughout the period from 1790 to 1860. Yet their reported results cannot be replicated. Instead, the replication shows slavery’s negative effects only become statistically significant from 1840 onwards. Furthermore, the addition of an interaction term for slavery’s legality multiplied by longitude suggests that slavery may have facilitated the westward expansion of the Southern frontier in the antebellum period. This does not support the claim that slavery impeded the growth of American capitalism
Long-term effects of a public school management program
No full textWhile a substantial body of research documents a positive correlation between school management practices and student outcomes, experimental evidence on their causal effects --- particularly over the long term --- remains limited. We exploit the randomized implementation of "Jovem de Futuro,'' a management program implemented in Brazilian public high schools. Drawing on rich administrative data, we follow students' educational and labor market trajectories over fifteen years. We find short-term improvements in test scores and high school completion. In the long run, however, the program yields null to modest effects on college enrollment and graduation, labor market participation, and earnings