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Air Pollution and Fertility Outcomes in Thailand
No full textThe intertwining dynamics of air pollution and fertility have emerged as crucial facets of public health and demographic studies. This study evaluates the impact of air pollution exposure due to fires on fertility outcomes of women in Thailand. We construct a woman-age panel using the Thai 2019 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and high-resolution satellite data on the incidence of fires in neighboring areas as an exogenous source of variation that impacts PM2.5 levels in downwind areas. Exploiting the exogenous fluctuations in PM2.5 levels using the wind direction IV, we identify the causal effect of PM2.5 exposure on fertility. Our results show that an increase in the levels of PM2.5 pollution concentration by1µg/m3 causes a 7-10% drop in births next year with respect to our sample mean. The fertility decline is corroborated by an increase in short-term contraceptive use by women. We find stronger effects for women residing in rural areas. We also find evidence of the child quality-quantity tradeoff. With a first year of life exposure to PM2.5, we observe an increase in children’s protein consumption and preschool enrollment. Since declining fertility can change the demographic composition and affect economic development, these results add to our knowledge of the varied ways in which air pollution can affect society
Local Leadership and Collective Action for Inclusive Development: Enhancing Governance and Branding in Oradea
No full textIn contemporary urban development, good governance – characterized by responsibility, transparency, inclusivity, and responsiveness – and effective city branding are fundamentally interconnected. As cities navigate an increasingly competitive global landscape, distinguishing themselves to attract investments, tourists, and a skilled workforce has become essential. This branding process is no longer just a top-down marketing effort, requiring profound engagement with local stakeholders to ensure authenticity and relevance.
Oradea, a city located in northwestern Romania, exemplifies how participatory governance and community-driven branding can mutually reinforce one another while promoting socio-economic inclusion. Through active engagement in urban planning, policy-making, and promotional initiatives, local actors harness Oradea’s historical, cultural, and socio-economic assets to shape a brand with both national and European appeal. This inclusive approach fosters civic pride and strengthens the legitimacy of governance structures, resulting in a city identity that authentically reflects its community’s values.
Oradea’s experience illustrates that involving residents and local organizations in governance and branding not only cultivates trust and pride but also empowers cities to strategically position themselves on broader regional and international stages with an authentic, community-rooted identity that reflects their diverse population and shared aspirations
Testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Madagascar: Empirical evidence using the ARDL approach
No full textThis study investigates whether the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) exists in Madagascar using annual data from 1990 to 2015. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, we examine the relationships between CO emissions, economic growth, agricultural production, and trade openness. Results show that economic growth follows a U-shaped pattern with CO emissions: emissions decline at low income levels but increase as income rises, indicating that the classical inverted U-shaped EKC is not present. Agricultural production has no significant effect, and trade openness has a marginally negative impact on emissions. Granger causality tests indicate a unidirectional effect from economic growth to emissions. Policy recommendations focus on promoting cleaner trade and investing in renewable energy to prevent emissions from rising at higher income levels
Experimental methods: Learning your own risk preferences under different risk elicitation methods
No full textThis paper examines whether changes in risk preferences reflect genuine behavioural shifts or result from the
elicitation method used. In a within-subject experiment, participants made initial risky choices, completed
24 unpaid learning rounds with real dice and recorded outcomes, and then made final choices. We compare
four risk elicitation methods: two Ordered Lottery Selection (OLS) and two Multiple Price List (MPL) tasks.
Our analysis focuses on how preferences evolve with experience, the role of reported errors during the
learning phase, and the effect of method complexity (i.e., the number of potential payoff outcomes in a given
lottery) on revealed risk attitudes. Results show that MPL tasks, particularly when more complex, produce
stronger changes in behaviour. Participants who made errors during the MPL learning phase were more likely
to display increased risk aversion. This suggests that task comprehension and cognitive load influence the
stability of preferences. The findings contribute to the broader debate on preference stability and highlight the
methodological relevance of comparing elicitation tools within the same experimental framework
Spatial Spillovers of Local Trade Shocks: Estimation and Distributional Consequences
No full textWe propose a novel spatial IV approach to estimate inter-regional employment spillovers from local trade shocks and apply it to the surge of Chinese import competition in the U.S. We find strong spillovers at the local level that substantially reshape the geography of the shock's employment burden. Our results further suggest that these indirect effects propagate through input-output linkages rather than labor mobility. Moreover, we show that our estimates rationalize the roughly 30 percent gap between Autor et al. (2013) and the structural follow-up literature in the aggregate U.S. manufacturing employment decline attributed to Chinese import competition
Market for Lemons in Academia: Adverse Selection with Dynamic Human Capital Formation and Policy Lock-in
No full textThis paper develops a dynamic theory of academic publishing in which evaluation metrics interact with researchers’ skill formation. Building on classic models of adverse selection and signaling, the analysis introduces endogenous human capital dynamics: researchers’ skills evolve as a function of their publication choices. Engagement with high-scrutiny journals enhances skills through learning-by-doing and referee feedback, while repeated publication in low-scrutiny outlets leads to skill depreciation.
The model shows that when governing bodies fail to differentiate between high- and low-scrutiny publication outlets—treating all indexed outputs as equivalent—researchers optimally exert minimal effort, triggering a decline in aggregate research skills. Crucially, this process generates hysteresis: even if evaluation policies are later corrected, accumulated skill depreciation may prevent the re-emergence of a separating equilibrium.
The theory is empirically motivated by a comparison of two research funding regimes in Kazakhstan—one imposing strict publication targets tied to indexed journals, and another without publication requirements—which generate markedly different publication patterns despite operating within the same academic environment.
The framework highlights a previously unexplored channel through which metric-based evaluation systems can cause persistent damage to research capacity. It delivers clear policy implications: delayed reforms are costly, stronger differentiation across publication outlets may be required to restore quality, and increasing the cost of low-scrutiny publication can be as important as raising rewards for high-quality output. While grounded in a specific institutional setting, the model provides a general framework for understanding durable quality failure in research systems reliant on targeted publication metrics
The Italian labor market: long-term issues and employment levels
No full textThis paper analyzes the Italian labor market, highlighting the long-term issues that have characterized it for decades and remain largely unresolved despite various government reforms. Key challenges include stagnant real wages, significant regional disparities between the North and South, and gender inequalities that disproportionately affect women. Furthermore, the study addresses high youth unemployment—particularly in Southern Italy—the brain drain, and the prevalence of irregular work within the underground economy. Finally, the analysis examines recent employment trends, noting improvements in employment and unemployment rates over the last three years, even as productivity remains stagnant and economic growth stays modest. The study follows a descriptive-analytical approach. The analysis is largely theoretical but incorporates descriptive empirical evidence, drawing data from official national and international sources to ensure both relevance and credibility. In terms of theoretical contribution, this paper adds to the broad body of knowledge on the Italian labor market. An important purpose of this study is to provide the scientific community with novel perspectives on the intersection of youth unemployment, the underground economy, and the brain drain within an economy characterized by sluggish growth and low real wages. Consequently, by deepening the understanding of these persistent structural challenges, this paper aims to offer novel insights for future research, suggests specific proposals for reform, and serves as a valuable reference for labor market policy discussions
Quantifying data revisions using real-time data in South Africa
No full textNon-random revisions in macroeconomic statistics has important implications for forecasting and risk management and well as policy making. This policy paper evaluates the magnitude and historical dynamics of South African macroeconomic data revisions using a detailed true real-time dataset. We show that there is a lot of uncertainty around macroeconomic data in South Africa. In the case of GDP, estimates have tended to be revised upwards, by about 0.4 percentage point, on average. Investment, on the other hand, experienced larger revisions that GDP, with revisions tending to be negative. We show that the Reserve Bank's business cycle indicators have experienced the largest revisions of the series considered, raising concerns over their usefulness for nowcasting economic growth
Extraordinary Economic and Social Events Associated with the Solar Cycle Maximum
No full textThe currently unfolding solar cycle 25 reached its maximum on or about October 2024. According to long-standing theoretical claims, cyclical maximums of solar activity could be associated with economic recessions (W.S.Jevons), revolutions and migration (A.L.Chizhevsky). And indeed, several of such extraordinary events have already occurred recently. These include revolutions in Bangladesh (2024), government collapse in Syria (2024), Hamas terrorist attack on Israel (2023), and student protests in the US and Europe against the war in Palestine (2024). Meanwhile, migrant influx overwhelmed the US and Western Europe. Are we going to see more of the extraordinary events typically associated with the solar maximums, such as revolutions in a few more countries colliding in a revolutionary wave like the Arab Spring of 2010-12 or collapse of Communism in 1989-91? Or economic recessions in the US and other advanced economies leading to a global economic slowdown
Japanese women doctors in the hospital system: Gender gap, professional burnout, and the impact of the COVID 19 pandemic.
No full textJapan’s national hospital system, which consists of a combination of private, national, prefectural and metropolitan hospitals, is the largest employers of the of the doctors. The article provides details on the women doctors’ discontinuous workforce participation in the Japanese hospital system, the dominance of part-time work patterns, and the nature of inflexibility in the work structures that disallow the maintenance of separate work and life spheres. This paper further discusses the effects of the COVID 19 pandemic on Japanese healthcare provision structures in hospitals and the extensive inhibitions that the pandemic placed on the careers of women doctors. The article details the nature of the chronic doctor shortage in Japan, and professional burnout incidences among the women doctors, and how the COVID 19 pandemic intensified these two factors.
The analysis herein raises the policy issues at government and workplace level. The article argues that the establishment of free and universal childcare facilities, and family caregiving mechanisms via government fiscal restructuring would assist in the dissolution of gendered work patterns