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Frontier Technology Adoption and Inclusive Green Growth in the EU: A Double-edged Sword?
No full textAs the EU Commission strategises towards a more technologically advanced region, a critical question arises: Does frontier technology adoption (FTR) truly foster inclusive green growth (IGG)? This study answers this question by empirically examining the impact of FTR on IGG, while accounting for the contingency role of electricity access. Applying pooled least squares, Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, and the dynamic generalised method of moments techniques, we uncover a paradox: while FTR accelerates economic growth and lowers greenhouse gas emissions, it exacerbates income inequality. The second lesson from this study is that although electricity access enhances the growth and environmental sustainability benefits of FTR, it only mitigates (but does not nullify) the downside of income inequality. These findings underscore the crucial need for the EU Commission to establish complementary and compensatory mechanisms to ensure that the EU’s technological leap delivers greener and more inclusive growth
Geopolitical risk and sovereign stress in the Euro Area
No full textUsing local projections, this paper documents that neither global geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks nor GPR shocks originating in smaller euro area countries have a significant impact on Euro Area sovereign stress, whereas GPR shocks originating in Germany generate sizable effects, against the backdrop of the recent surge in geopolitical risk following the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Intelligence artificielle et transformation de la relation croissance –emploi : une relecture empirique de la loi d’okun
No full textThis paper examines the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and technological progress on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment, traditionally described by Okun’s law. Using panel data for 11 developed countries over the period 2000–2024, the analysis relies on fixed-effects models and dynamic specifications estimated through the System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM). Technological intensity is proxied by an information and communication technology (ICT) index, and an interaction term is introduced to assess its moderating role in the growth–employment relationship. The results confirm the short-run validity of Okun’s law, as economic growth exerts a negative and statistically significant effect on changes in unemployment. However, technological intensity has a positive direct effect on unemployment and weakens the ability of growth to reduce unemployment, suggesting adjustment costs related to automation. Overall, the findings point to a structural transformation of the growth–employment nexus and highlight the need for active policies in skills development and labor market adjustment to ensure more inclusive growth
Asset Dynamics and Dissipative Structures in Open Economies: Economics as a Prescription for the "Thermal Death" of Equilibrium
No full textThis paper deepens the "Equilibrium Theory Endogenizing Imbalances" based on asset dynamics, as presented in the previous study (Kitamura, 2025), by incorporating concepts from thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. The objective is to bridge to a qualitative theory of development, encompassing issues such as the sustainability of economic growth and the creation of innovation. While the previous work proposed a model where imbalances are perpetuated through asset preference and capital diffusion, this study extends the framework into a model where "effective asset potential"—defined as the asset level divided by the rate of return on assets—acts as the driving force behind capital flows. It demonstrates a mechanism in which the capital efficiency of each nation significantly determines its economic trajectory.
Consequently, this paper reveals that individual economies exist under a tension between "subjective equilibrium" aimed at utility maximization, and the "pressure of entropy increase" inherent in asset dynamics. Through observations using multilateral data, the global economy has polarized into "self-organizing economies" that concentrate and accumulate capital, and "diffusive economies" that primarily disperse and dissipate capital. This paper presents a novel perspective that views the global economy as a "dissipative structure" maintained through the interdependence of these distinct phases.
Based on this analysis, the paper argues that for an economic system to remain sustainable, it is essential to maintain the gradient of asset potential within the system properly by eliminating "stagnation" through innovation and redistribution policies. Ultimately, this paper proposes that what economics terms "equilibrium" is equivalent to "thermal death" in physics; therefore, the goal of economics should be the avoidance rather than the realization of such a state, making the perspective of "entropy management"
Quantifying data revisions using real-time data in South Africa
No full textNon-random revisions in macroeconomic statistics has important implications for forecasting and risk management and well as policy making. This policy paper evaluates the magnitude and historical dynamics of South African macroeconomic data revisions using a detailed true real-time dataset. We show that there is a lot of uncertainty around macroeconomic data in South Africa. In the case of GDP, estimates have tended to be revised upwards, by about 0.4 percentage point, on average. Investment, on the other hand, experienced larger revisions that GDP, with revisions tending to be negative. We show that the Reserve Bank's business cycle indicators have experienced the largest revisions of the series considered, raising concerns over their usefulness for nowcasting economic growth
Testing Causal Relationship between Institutional Quality and Inclusive Growth: Evidence from Panel Causality Tests
No full textThis study utilizes data from 162 countries to examine the nature and direction of causality between institutional quality and inclusive growth from 1996 to 2020. It employs three distinctive panel causality test methods to ensure the robustness and validity of the findings. The results of one of the causality test methods show mixed findings, while those of the other two methods provide evidence that institutional quality and inclusive growth reinforce each other. Overall, the results are robust to alternative estimation methods. These findings hold significant policy implications, emphasising that governments across all countries should prioritise the development of strong institutions and policies that promote inclusive growth as complementary strategies for sustainable development
El Índice de Precios de Consumo Efectivo Medio (IPCEM): Enfoque Académico para el Análisis de la Inflación Real
No full textEnglish:
This article proposes and analyzes the Average Effective Consumer Price Index (AECPI) as an
essential complementary indicator to the traditional Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Recognizing that the official CPI is based on an “average” consumption basket that does not
reflect actual household spending, the AECPI adjusts its weightings according to effective
spending patterns, derived from surveys such as the Household Budget Survey (HBS). This
methodology provides a much more accurate representation of the real impact of inflation on
family well-being. In specific contexts, such as the 2022 energy crisis, the difference between
the AECPI and the official CPI exceeded two percentage points, revealing a significant
underestimation of the actual inflation burden. This study discusses the advantages,
limitations, and potential applications of the AECPI in a country’s socioeconomic analysis,
highlighting its crucial relevance in today’s environment of high inflation, inequality, and
pressure on purchasing power.
Español:
El presente artículo propone y analiza el Índice de Precios de Consumo Efectivo Medio (IPCEM) como un indicador complementario esencial al tradicional Índice de Precios de Consumo (IPC). Reconociendo que el IPC oficial se basa en una cesta de consumo "media" que no refleja la realidad del gasto de los hogares, el IPCEM ajusta sus ponderaciones según la estructura de gasto efectiva, derivada de encuestas como la Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares (EPF). Esta metodología ofrece una representación mucho más precisa del impacto real de la inflación sobre el bienestar de las familias. En contextos específicos, como la crisis energética de 2022, la diferencia entre el IPCEM y el IPC oficial superó los dos puntos porcentuales, evidenciando una subestimación significativa de la carga inflacionaria real. Este estudio discute las ventajas, limitaciones y aplicaciones potenciales del IPCEM en el análisis socioeconómico de un país, subrayando su crucial relevancia en escenarios actuales de alta inflación, desigualdad y presión sobre el poder adquisitivo
The determinants of access to credit for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): Evidence from Uzbekistan
No full textThis study examines the determinants of access to bank financing for enterprises in Uzbekistan, addressing both the decision to apply for credit and the probability of approval conditional on applying. Using World Bank Enterprise Survey data (n=1,008 enterprises), we employ a twostage analytical framework: binary logit regression models examine factors associated with having an existing loan, and Heckman probit selection models jointly estimate the loan application decision and approval probability, accounting for potential selection bias. The study reveals severe credit rationing in Uzbekistan, with only 13.3% of enterprises holding bank loans
and 10.1% applying for new credit. The most striking finding is the dominant effect of existing banking relationships: enterprises with current loans achieve 87.0% approval rates compared to 41.7% for first-time applicants. The Heckman outcome equation confirms this relationship banking effect, representing approximately 30-35 percentage point higher approval probability. Medium-sized enterprises enjoy substantial advantages in both application propensity and approval probability. Export activity and checking account ownership significantly enhance credit access. Contrary to international evidence, female-managed enterprises show positive
approval coefficients, though statistical significance is marginal. The highly significant selection parameter confirms substantial selection bias, validating the Heckman approach
Testing Asymmetric Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis in Africa: Evidence from Non-Dynamic and Dynamic Panel Threshold Methods
No full textThis study employs the data of 53 countries in Africa between 1991 and 2019 to examine the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation for the youth and working age population taking into consideration gender dichotomy. The aim is to determine the validity of Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis in the continent. For robustness, we employ both static and dynamic panel threshold regression methods to determine whether effect of unemployment on labour force participation varies across different unemployment level. First, out findings reveal that the relationship between unemployment and labour force participation is not linear with varying effects across gender and age groups. For female youths, DWH holds irrespective of unemployment levels, although the effect increases as unemployment rise above the threshold. In contrast, for male youth, below threshold, DWH holds in the static model but in the dynamic model AWEH holds. However, above the threshold, DHW dominates in both models. In the case of working-age population, for the women, AWEH holds below the threshold while DWH prevails above it. The difference between the static and dynamic models can be attributed to labour market adjustments, hysteresis effects and dynamics of household income. Given our findings, we suggest that target market interventions and skill development programmes should be prioritise by the governments in African countries, especially for the youth irrespective of their gender. Also, social safety net and if possible, introduce unemployment benefits across countries in the continent would be good policy options
Sustaining environmental resilience: A Stackelberg game
No full textThis paper develops a dynamic Stackelberg game between a social planner and a resource-extracting firm to analyze the regulation of renewable resource extraction. The planner, as leader, sets extraction quotas, while the firm, as follower, chooses its extraction effort in response. The model is analyzed under exponential resource growth and compares open-loop (pre-committed) and feedback (state-dependent) equilibrium strategies. We show that open-loop equilibria yield environmentally unstable steady states. Stability can be achieved only under feedback strategies, and only when the follower’s valuation of the resource stock is sufficiently sensitive - a condition met under a quadratic value function. A state-dependent tax is further
shown to enhance stability by strengthening the corrective feedback between
ecological conditions and extraction incentives. The results highlight the limits of static regulation, underscore the critical role of adaptive, feedback-based policies, and provide a formal argument for precautionary and responsive governance in achieving long-run resource sustainability