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Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Pakistan: What We Know and What We Need to Know?
No full textThis study, drawing on domestic and international literature and new empirical results, finds that monetary policy affects inflation and output in Pakistan, but transmission is slow, incomplete, and uneven across channels due to entrenched structural frictions. The interest rate channel influences short-term market rates, yet pass-through to deposit and lending rates remains weak amid banking concentration, large sovereign portfolios, and distortions from concessional refinance schemes. The exchange rate channel reacts faster, with tighter policy supporting nominal appreciation and easing tradable inflation, but credibility gaps, discretionary interventions, and shallow FX markets reduce predictability. The credit channel tightens private credit, though fiscal dominance, high NPLs, and bank inefficiencies dilute responsiveness. Asset price transmission is largely absent given shallow capital markets and informality. Policy signals can shape inflation expectations, but repeated external shocks and administered energy price changes often dominate the outlook. Importantly, the updated results indicates that post-COVID shocks developments – subsidized credit, commodity price spikes, floods, and exchange rate instability – have exposed the structural weaknesses and raised the premium on reform and fiscal-monetary coordination
International monetary policy spillovers between Japan and the Rest of the World: A GVAR Framework
No full textWe evaluate the impact of international monetary policy spillovers from the US and China on the real exchange rate of Japan. While China remains the top largest trading partner to Japan, the US occupies the second position, indicating potential policy spillovers from these countries to Japan. Adopting the GVAR modelling technique, the outcomes from our findings suggest: (i) the US monetary policy shocks significantly affect Japanese foreign exchange dynamics, causing Yen to depreciate in the instance of a positive shock to US monetary policy; (ii) monetary policy shocks from China and the Euro Area do not constitute a considerable swing in Yen’s exchange rate; (iii) the US monetary policy shock is insignificant in influencing monetary policy conduct of Japan, at least in the short term; (iv) these findings are robust to calm and turbulent periods. Thus, we offer the implications of our findings for policymakers and investors seeking stability as a macroeconomic goal and a stable economy for investment
Spatial Analysis and Time Trend Regression of Multifactorial Violence-related Death and its Connection with Public Health in Nigeria
No full textInterpersonal violence poses a formidable obstacle to harmonious coexistence, socioeconomic development, and public health globally, given its deleterious consequences and attendant mortality. In a multicultural society like Nigeria, violence is an unfortunate inevitability. This study undertakes a spatial analysis and Poisson time trend analysis of violence-related mortality cases in Nigeria, aiming to elucidate the dynamics, assess the public health burden, estimate relative risk, identify hotspots, and inform policy interventions to mitigate violence in severely affected areas. A total of 195,170 cases were recorded between 2006 and 2023, with Borno (46,425), Lagos (12,086), and Kaduna (10,548) accounting for 24%, 6%, and 5% of cases, respectively. In contrast, Ekiti state had the lowest number of cases (752). Notably, death rates in 2014 and 2015 accounted for 12% and 9% of all deaths rates that were attributed to violence during the period considered. The violent death rate showed clear regional differences, with over half of all deaths occurring in the North Central and North East regions. The South East and South West regions contributed 8% and 10% of the remaining share, respectively, while the North West and South South regions contributed 12% and 14%, respectively. These figures show statistically significant socioeconomic and public health differences between the country's northern and southern regions (F = 82.709, P<0.000). Analysis of relative risk showed that while Plateau, Cross River, and Anambra had constant incidence rates, 27 states had elevated relative risk and seven states had a minimal drop in violence-related death. According to the study's findings, violence can have a significant impact on the health of mothers and children, making the nation's already fragile public health situation much worse. These findings underscore the complexity of Nigeria's violence landscape, highlighting the need for targeted, region-specific interventions to address the escalating violence and its public health repercussions. Policymakers and governments at all levels must prioritize evidence-based strategies to mitigate violence and promote peaceful coexistence in Nigeria
Municipality synthetic Gini index for Colombia: A machine learning approach
No full textThis paper presents two synthetic estimations of the Gini coefficient at a municipality level for Colombia in the years 2000-2020. The methodology relies on several machine learning models to select the best model for imputation of the data. This derives in two Random Forest models were the first is characterized by containing Dominant Fixed Effects, while the second contains a set of Dominant Varying Factors. Upon these estimations, the Synthetic Gini Coefficients for both models are inspected, and public links are generated to access them. The Dominant Fixed Effects models is rather ”stiff” in contrast to the Varying Factor model. Hence, for researchers it is recommended to use the Synthetic Gini Coefficient with Varying Factors because it contains greater variability across time than the Dominant Fixed Effects models
What are asset price bubbles? A survey on definitions of financial bubbles
No full textFinancial bubbles and crashes have repeatedly caused economic turmoil notably but not only during the 2008 financial crisis. However, both in the popular press as well as scientific publications, the meaning of bubble is sometimes unspecified. Due to the multitude of bubble definitions, we conduct a systematic review with the following questions: What definitions of asset price bubbles exist in the literature? Which definitions are used in which disciplines and how frequently? We develop a system of definition categories and categorize a total of 122 papers from eleven research areas. Our results show that although one definition is indeed prevalent in the literature, the overall definition landscape is not uniform. Next to the mostly used definition as deviation from a present value of expected future cash flows, we identify several other definitions, which rely on price properties or other specifications of a fundamental value. This research contributes by shedding light on the possible variations in which bubbles are defined and operationalized
Measuring Currency Risk Premium: The Case of Turkey
No full textThis study examines the determinants of the change in currency expectations with different maturities (1-month, 3-month, and 1-year) in the Turkish Lira (TL) versus the US dollar. The risk premium is estimated using the interest rate differential and a latent component called the missing risk premium. The empirical model is extended to break down the risk component further using other explanatory variables, such as currency swap agreements, credit default risk (CDS), foreign reserves, and the VIX (Volatility Index). This study used a state-space model to deal with unobserved variables or parameters. The empirical model is evaluated between January 2005 and March 2023 with daily and weekly frequencies. The study's findings do not support the uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition. Instead, they favour the outcome of Fama's (1984) exchange rate prediction regressions. Our findings indicate interest rates and swaps explain most of the variation in the currency risk premium in the TL.
Moreover, we found a significant increase in both the level and volatility of the missing risk premium for long maturities after 2018. The coefficient of the missing risk premium and its long-lasting impact of the shock is significantly reduced when observable variables are added. Overall, this study sheds light on the complex interplay between changes in monetary policy, exchange rate, and risk premia in an emerging market context
Modelling Sustainable Energy Transition in BRICS+ Countries: A Smoothed Common Correlated Effects Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression Approach
No full textThe collective goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the coming decades has sparked considerable debate in recent years. The nature of the energy transition in fossil fuel-dependent economies suggests the presence of both implicit and explicit gaps in country-level commitments to the transition. Utilizing data from 1996 to 2019 from the BRICS+ bloc, this study investigates the heterogeneous effects of key economic and environmental factors on energy transition across the distribution of energy transition levels using a smoothed quantile instrumental variable regression model with common correlated effects (CCE) adjustments. The analysis incorporates macroeconomic, environmental and governance variables, while addressing endogeneity through instrumental variables, such as fossil fuel reserves and temperature anomalies. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in the relationships across quantiles. Specifically, CO2 emissions exhibit a consistently negative impact on energy transition, with the effect fluctuating across the distribution. GDP and population growth negatively influence energy transition, with stronger effects at higher quantiles, indicating structural constraints in high-transition countries. Notably, the heterogeneity of inflation effects, though insignificant, suggests dynamic economic pressures at varying energy transition levels. These findings underline the importance of targeted, quantile-specific policy interventions to accelerate energy transition, emphasizing decarbonization and market reforms. The CCE adjustments ensure robustness by accounting for cross-sectional dependence, and sensitivity analyses confirm the validity of the results. This study contributes to the growing literature on sustainable energy by providing novel insights into the distributional dynamics of energy transition drivers
Digital markets: formative components, regulation, challenges and insights from the EU Digital Markets Act
No full textThere has been very little policy or academic discussion or debate about the value of digital markets in the literature. Most debates in the literature focus on the large technological companies that operate in digital markets, but there are no discussions or debates in the literature about the value proposition and formative components of digital markets. This study examines digital markets, their formative components, regulation and challenges. It also presents a concise definition of “digital markets” and suggests a link between digital markets and digital financial inclusion. It analyses the regulation of digital markets, particularly the recent EU Digital Markets Act, and show that regulation focus mostly on large technological companies. The study also shows the benefits of digital market regulation for users of digital markets and the demerits of the large technological companies who own the world’s largest digital transactional platforms in digital markets. The criticisms of regulating large technological companies are also identified
Proyección del rendimiento de cultivos de grano basada en los informes semanales de humedad edáfica y estadio fenológico de SAGyP
No full textThe paper proposes to use weekly soil moisture and phenological stage data, provided by SAGyP reports, to predict the yield of corn, soybeans (first and second sow), wheat and sunflower. The adjustment of specific models reveals a close relationship between soil moisture and the final yield of the four crops, regardless of the phenological stage of the crop. This apparent irrelevance of the phenological stage contradicts the agronomic literature, which is mainly based on field trials. However, the coefficients of the proposed models, which in turn can be directly interpreted as yield elasticities with respect to moisture, are consistent with the results of other authors. At the end of the paper, the use of the obtained elasticities to predict the national harvest and optimize the management of the climatic risk inherent to agricultural production at a firm level is discussed
From Stagnation to Resilience: An In-Depth Analysis of Economic and Social Drivers in Bangladesh’s Development Journey
No full textThis paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the various economic and social factors that have shaped Bangladesh’s development, tracing its evolution from pre-independence stagnation and post-war recovery to its emergence as a resilient and increasingly prosperous nation in South Asia. The country’s transformation from a conflict-affected, least-developed economy to achieving upper-middle-income status offers a compelling case study in development. The research examines critical elements such as macroeconomic policies, trade and investment frameworks, advancements in agricultural technology, and the role of remittance inflows. On the social front, it evaluates demographic shifts, education, healthcare, gender dynamics, and the impacts of rapid urbanization. Additionally, the paper highlights persistent challenges, including poverty, inequality, environmental concerns, and governance issues, while underscoring the significance of technological innovation. By analyzing these key factors, the study illuminates the policies that have propelled Bangladesh’s economic growth and identifies strategies to ensure its continued and sustainable development