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Le seuil de la dette publique en République Démocratique du Congo : contraintes conjoncturelles et impératif de soutenabilité pour le financement du développement
No full textThe Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces a structural paradox: a massive need for financing to support its economic and social development, in a context of limited domestic resource mobilization capacity. Public borrowing therefore appears to be an unavoidable lever to bridge the financing gap. However, the accumulation of debt is not neutral with respect to the effectiveness of economic policies, particularly countercyclical policies.
This article analyzes the existence of critical public debt thresholds in the DRC beyond which borrowing no longer supports growth and instead weakens the effectiveness of macroeconomic instruments. Using a threshold effects approach applied to Congolese macroeconomic data, the study identifies two major thresholds (32% and 110% of GDP) and draws strong implications for the development financing strategy and debt sustainability
Benchmark on Underlying Asset Value for Islamic Banking Product: A Practitioner’s Perspective
No full textIn current Islamic banking products particularly in financing facility, the purpose of financing could be for asset acquisition or to obtain cash. In addition, financing may be given on secured or clean basis. For financing with secured asset, normally the value of security asset will match the financing amount whereas for unsecured facility, the underlying asset is merely to facilitate the transaction in which the value may not match the financing amount. In other words, the contracting parties may enter into transaction using an asset in which the price may be higher or lower than the actual market value. Such arrangement may lead to the issue on the permissibility to transact asset at different price than the actual cost or market value. This paper discusses on the Shariah and operational concerns in relation to possible benchmark on underlying asset value for Islamic banking transaction. This article is based on qualitative research approach which is purely based on primary data gathered through library research and observation from practitioner perspective. The outcome from the literature review can be applied as the possible asset value benchmark
Development of Islamic Deposit Product Post-Islamic Financial Services Act 2013: A Retrospective Analysis
No full textThe Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 (IFSA) came into force on 30 June 2013 with the objective to pave way for the development of an end-to-end Shariah compliant regulatory framework for the conduct of Islamic financial operation in Malaysia. A key concern among Islamic banks is regarding the reclassification and requirements in differentiating between Islamic deposit and investment account. IFSA has introduced two major classifications of products for the acceptance of money from customers by the Islamic banks, namely Islamic deposits and investment accounts. This paper retrospectively analyses the development of Islamic deposit products following the enforcement of the IFSA. This paper explores the industry's response to these requirements and outlines the prevailing structures of Islamic deposit products used by Malaysian Islamic banks. It also assesses the impact of IFSA regulations on these structures. This study is based on qualitative research approach which is purely based on primary data gathered through library research and interview. The paper highlights that, while the reclassification requirement under IFSA 2013 necessitates additional efforts from Islamic banks, it aligns Islamic banking more closely with the objective of underlying Shariah contract (maqasid al-aqd). This initiative, though still in its early stages, represents a departure from conventional banking practices and emphasizes the significance of ijtihad in the development of novel financial products
Several seasonal adjustment strategies in problematic contexts
No full textThe past few years have been marked by the occurrence of many unexpected events that have had many social and economic repercussions, with the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions in energy commodity markets standing out above the others. This period of great uncertainty has also had a considerable effect on the production of official economic statistics, undermining the goodness and the predictive capacity of short-term stochastic models. In this condition of extreme unpredictability, there is a need for a strategy of monitoring and reviewing the seasonal adjustment models and anomalous observations, especially over the period 2020-2023. In this work several intervention strategies were defined and tested, focusing over series that manifested a distinct break in their dynamic. Temporary level shifts, included with their lagged versions, have proven to be a particularly useful tool.
The outcomes reveal that the policies we considered are effective, and the TRAMO-SEATS procedure manages to be helpful in both ordinary and extraordinary conditions. The whole data analysis has been conducted with JDemetra+ that is a complete and flexible tool in performing several statistical estimates and tests
Tony Lawson’s Critique of Modern Economics and his Contribution to Heterodox Economics
No full textWith a career spanning over many decades, Tony Lawson has made important contributions ranging from the philosophy of social sciences, history economic thought, methodology of economics, political economy, monetary theory, to the theory of ethics. His work concerning ontology has had a remarkable impact on economic methodologists in promoting the discussion of social ontology. Similarly, his articulation of critical realism has strengthened the criticism of heterodox economists against the economics orthodoxy regarding its lack of realism. Although not identified with a specific heterodox strand, it can be argued that Lawson’s work has promoted the development and the appeal of heterodox economics in many ways. A common feature of most heterodox economics relates to the criticism of mathematical formalism which is a core principle of orthodox economic theory. Another common characteristic is the heterodox emphasis on the crucial role of economic methodology for the discipline. Further, most heterodox economists call for a more realistic approach to the study of economic phenomena. This paper will discuss the facets of Lawson’s work which have exerted considerable influence on above- mentioned common attributes of heterodox economics. In particular, it will focus on: A. the argumentation countering the negative stance of mainstream economics towards economic methodology and the support of its usefulness as a subject of study. B. the critique of mainstream economic methodology and especially its use of mathematics. C. the analysis of the nature of heterodox economics. Lawson’s discourses on these themes have contributed towards a credible and coherent alternative to mainstream economics
Modeling and Forecasting the Probability of Crypto-Exchange Closures: A Forecast Combination Approach
No full textThe popularity of cryptocurrency exchanges has surged in recent years, accompanied by the proliferation of new digital platforms and tokens. However, the issue of credit risk and the reliability of crypto exchanges remain critical, highlighting the need for indicators to assess the safety of investing through these platforms. This study examines a unique, hand-collected dataset of 228 cryptocurrency exchanges operating between April 2011 and May 2024. Using various machine learning algorithms, we identify the key factors contributing to exchange shutdowns, with trading volume, exchange lifespan, and cybersecurity scores emerging as the most significant predictors. Since individual machine learning models often capture distinct data characteristics and exhibit varying error patterns, we employ a forecast combination approach by aggregating multiple predictive distributions. Specifically, we evaluate several specifications of the generalized linear pool (GLP), beta-transformed linear pool (BLP), and beta-mixture combination (BMC). Our findings reveal that the beta-transformed linear pool and the beta-mixture combination achieve the best performances, improving forecast accuracy by approximately 4.1% based on a robust H-measure, which effectively addresses the challenges of misclassification in imbalanced datasets
The effects of Basel III on the intermediation and market activities of WAEMU banks
No full textThis paper analyzes the effect of Basel III adapted to WAEMU on the behavior of banks in the zone (intermediation and market activities). After having developed a model for optimizing the return on bank equity, under various constraints (balance sheet constraints, Basel III regulatory constraints), we resort to linear programming via the Danzig simplex algorithm and to a structure of reasonable rates to obtain the optimal values of the various bank balance sheet items. The results, obtained by comparing these theoretical values with the values observed before Basel III (before January 1, 2018), show an increase in the supply of loans, obtained not only from deposits and bank refinancing but also via resources from the financial markets. We can also observe the intuitive result of an increase of bank reserves in line with the constraint that Basel III imposes on banks to increase their liquidity. In short, Basel III tends to strengthen bank financing in the zone, while improving the soundness of banks through the constitution of larger reserves
From Pandemics to Portfolios: Long-Term Impacts of the 2009 H1N1 Outbreak on Household Investment Choices
No full textThis study examines how experiencing a pandemic affects household investment behaviors. By leveraging cross-state variations in the H1N1 mortality rate in 2009, our difference-in-differences analysis reveals interesting findings. Although the pandemic does not significantly affect stock market participation, it depresses the proportion of liquid assets invested in risky assets among households who participate in the stock market. This effect persists for up to eight years after the pandemic and is particularly pronounced among households characterized by higher risk
aversion and greater income volatility. Analysis conducted using different datasets consistently suggests that the pandemic primarily influences portfolio choices through a shift in risk attitudes
What's Next After Achieving 100% Level of Financial Inclusion?
No full textThis study considers a world where it is possible to attain full financial inclusion where full financial inclusion means achieving a 100% level of financial inclusion in whichever way financial inclusion is measured. It was argued that increasing the level of financial inclusion is a priority for policymakers in developing countries while many developed countries have already attained a high level of financial inclusion. After the highest possible level of financial inclusion has been attained, countries that have achieved such a feat will think about what next can be done about financial inclusion. This article addresses this issue and offers insights into the course of action that countries can take after achieving full financial inclusion in whichever way financial inclusion is measured. This study also explores the philosophical nature of this question by casting some light into whether attaining full financial inclusion is a worthwhile goal for policymakers to focus on. The insights offered in this study are useful to scholars, policymakers and those responsible for increasing financial inclusion in their countries
Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth and Inflation in Asia: What do We Learn from Empirical Studies?
No full textAsymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables are caused by some important effects, such as income effect, uncertainty effect, precautionary saving effect, irreversible investment and reallocation effects. Due to these effects, output and prices respond diferently to oil price increases and decreases. This asymmetry hypothesis has been empirically tested by many economists. This paper surveys recent empirical studies on the asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on economic activity and inflation in Asia. The empirical findings in Asian economies shows that the responses of output growth oil price shocks in Japan and South Korea tend to be asymmetric while the responses of inflation seem to be symmetric. For China, the largest oil-importing in Asia, the empirical results show that asymmetry is increasingly discovered. The results of the responses of inflation to oil price shocks in China do not favor the asymmetry hypothesis. The findings in the ASEAN5 economies are likely to support the symmetry hypothesis. In South Asian economies, only few studies favor the asymmetry hypothesis. Because empirical results for other Asian countries are not widely investigated, it is too early to draw some conclusions. One important finding is that Asian oil-exporting countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, might not escape the adverse impacts of oil price shocks on output growth. Since output and inflation can be unfavorably affected by oil price shocks, some researchers will recommend accommodative monetary policy along with exchange rate policy to stabilize the responses of output and prices when oil price tends to increase