Journals of Forman Christian College
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An analysis of software industry in Lahore using queuing technique: Mohammad Aslam and Nadia Saleem
No full textIn the last two decades, IT revolution came into limelight and software industry was the main force of this revolution. Software products and services are moulding the world with every passing day. Rapid inventions and innovations are the corner stone of software industry, which has eliminated the geographical boundaries of knowledge and technology. It is also a source of free flow of information and expertise. Communication technology and liberalization are the foundations of software development
Incidence of Education and Health Services on Different Income Classes in Pakistan
Full text linkThis study investigates the incidence of education and health services on different income groups in Pakistan using HIES data set 2001-02. This study uses Kienzle (1981) index to measure the incidence of such services for overall Pakistan, its rural-urban segments and four provinces of Pakistan. The findings of the study indicate that both services are pro-poor. It implies that the lower income classes enjoy the benefits which can hopefully improve the relative income positions of the beneficiaries. This study further confirms the previous results by estimating Gini index of gross income and after adding both the services. The results are bootstrapped in order to build confidence interval for the estimated indices as the point estimates are not reliable for policy prescriptions
An Econometric Analysis of Electricity Demand for the Residential Sector of Pakistan: Muhammad Idrees, Kashif Raza and Babar Aziz
Full text linkThis article presents an attempt to estimate electricity demand through various functional forms in the case of Pakistan using household level data. A number of articles on electricity demand estimate and interpret the results through different functional forms, such as linear, log linear and translog functional forms. However, none of the studies presents a comprehensive analysis based on the all three functional forms, especially in the case of Pakistan. The present article is an attempt to fill this gap by using household level data from Pakistan. Our findings show that total expenditure, house size, household size, heating degree days and temperature above threshold level may increase the demand for electricity. On the other hand, the price of electricity may decrease demand for electricity. An elasticity analysis shows that gas is a statistical substitute for electricity
Pakistan’s Water Vulnerability and the Risk of Inter-State Conflict in South Asia: Rabia Aslam
Full text linkThe paper addresses the issue of water scarcity and water vulnerability in Pakistan. It appears that wasteful agricultural practices; the dam centered internal politics and the recent construction of dams by the Indian government on the shared rivers has caused concern amongst certain quarters and created fears in some sections of society in Pakistan that India could redirect some of the water which rightfully belongs to Pakistan under the Indus Basin Treaty. If this indeed happens there could be serious water shortages in parts of down stream Pakistan. A game theoretic analysis of the situation suggests that, given the nature of induced water stress, the law of unlimited territorial sovereignty, if implemented in this case, could result in a Nash equilibrium of bilateral aggression for these nuclear neighbors. Institutional mechanisms therefore have to be put into place for monitoring river flows on both sides of the border and information sharing as stipulated under the Indus Basin Treaty to prevent tensions and develop a cooperative approach to the problem of growing water scarcity related with climate change.
Modeling Demand for Money in Pakistan: An ARDL Approach: Muhammad Asad, Shabib Haider Syed and Ijaz Hussain
Full text linkIn this study we have estimated demand for money (M2) function in Pakistan, over the period of 1980 Q1 to 2009 Q2, using ARDL method. The study corroborate support for the hypothesis of long-run equilibrium relationshipbetween real money demand and a set of variables including real GDP, inflation, rate of interest, real effective exchange rate and foreign rate of interest. The result of F-test and negative sign of EC(-1) term, both suggestthe presence of cointegration. The results are further approved by CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. The study concludes that the use of monetary policy could be effective in Pakistan because there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between money demand and the set of aforementioned variables. Inflation has a large impact on the demand for money in Pakistan, indicating towards the tendency of agents to hedge in physical assets
Testing for Marshall-Lerner Condition: Bilateral Trade between Pakistan and its Major Trading Partners: Javed Iqbal, Misbah Nosheen, Rabbia Tariq and Samia Manan
No full textMarshall Lerner condition is an important phenomenon that determines the correlation between the exchange rate and the balance of trade. In this study, we test the Marshall Lerner condition for Pakistan against her ten major trade partners - the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, China, Canada, France, Japan Germany, UAE and Kuwait. The study covers a period from 1980-2013 while for estimation purpose; we apply Johansen Juselius Co-integration technique. We find evidence of the long run cointegration relationship between the variables of the exchange rate and the balance of trade for Pakistan against her all ten trade partners. However, empirical findings confirm Marshall Lerner condition only for six countries, i.e. the US, UK, Saudi Arabia, China, Canada and France, while there is no evidence of Marshall Lerner condition, in case of the remaining countries Japan, Germany, UAE and Kuwait
The Role of Religiosity in Philanthropic Behavior: Muhammad Asghar Tashfeen, Syed Nisar Hussain Hamdani and Muhammad Ali Bhatti1
No full textAn adequate amount of economic literature exists which examines thedeterminants of human philanthropic activities however, not much work seems regarding influence of religion in such behaviour2. The economists now acknowledge the significance of neglected non-economic factors like religious, spiritual and ethical attributes which play an important role in economic decision making of individuals and households. It is evident from the scriptures describing history that caring of mankind is a divinely prevalent value from the dawn of civilization. The religious orientation promotes and strengthens such values thus causing enhancement in the altruistic activities. Mostly that has been unnoticed and analysis was mainly focused around the warm glow, tax price, public good, social acclaim and impure altruism, missing to also consider Divine beliefs, perceived reward of worldly deeds in an afterlife, in the form of Paradise and Hell. The present study develops a theoretical model under the recently emergedframework known as Divine Economics which models the relationship between perception about an afterlife and household’s systematic behavior to optimize eternal utility (Fala’h) i.e. the successfulness of both lives (here and hereafter) through time and resource allocation in philanthropic activities. Such an allocation is a main tool to alleviate poverty in any religious and particularly Islamic society. The study is based on Religiosity Scales and index of Divine Economics [Hamdani 2004, 2006] have been prepared for the cross sectional analysis of 817 households collected through Divine Economic Survey (2009)3 in four Capital cities in Pakistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir to examine such hypothesis. This study proves that religiosity has significant consequences on1 The authors are PhD Scholar at Department of Economics, Allama Iqbal Open University,Islamabad; Professor of Economics & Director KIE University of AJK and Associate Professor atDepartment of Economics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore,respectively. Corresponding author email: [email protected] Acknowledgement: The authors are thankful to the Divine Economics Project [HEC assisted], KIE, University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir for provision of Data and technical assistance for this study.3 Divine Economic Survey (2009) was conducted with the collaboration and partially financing by KIE University of AJ&K, PIDE Islamabad and Labour & Work Life Program Harvard University US.Tashfeen, Hamdani and Bhatti68philanthropic activities and leads to a different systematic economic behavior than as assumed in conventional economics. Hence this paper is a contribution towards a better understanding of religiosity, philanthropy a better understanding of religiosity, philanthropy and povertyrelationship. Moreover, this paper is seminal work of Becker [1974]
Accuracy of Revenue Forecast: Analysis of Pakistan’s Federal Revenue Receipts: Muhammad Ali Qasim and Mahmood Khalid
Full text linkThe government budget plays an important role in determining economic growth of a country. The accurate determination of budget estimate for revenue and expenditure is the key for successful implementation of budget plan. Any significant variation in determination of either of these budget estimates from the accurate budget estimates can have far reaching economic implications. The revenue receipts are one of the most significant parts of the overall resource envelope of a country. Therefore, there is a need to analyze accuracy of budgetary forecast for revenue receipts. This study conducts an exercise on accuracy of Pakistan’s Federal Revenue receipts budgetary forecasts. The study identify that there is a significant difference between the budget estimates of Federal Revenue receipts and actual revenue receipts. This difference also holds for different components of revenue receipts. Further analysis is done for pre and post 1990s reforms. The revenue forecasting has not improved during post reforms period due to a number of reasons. The reforms did not have revenue forecasting as one of the objectives, secondly the estimates rely heavily on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts and the buoyancy measures. These are not up to the mark. With this analysis, policy recommendations for increasing the certainty in fiscal instruments are drawn
Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis: Amna Arshad, Shabib Haider Syed and Ghulam Shabbir
Full text linkThis paper seeks to reinvestigate the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth by making use of the augmented Solow growth model. It also tends to explore the combined effect of military spending and armed conflicts on growth rate. Since the literature pertaining to defense economics depicts no consensus over the effects of military expenditure on the economy, the ongoing debate still becomes a topic of interest for many economists. This study reviews the recent publications in this regard and aims to contribute to the existing literature by making use of the most recent data for a pool of 61 countries. The theoretical framework is based on the augmented Solow growth model introduced by Mankiw et al. (1992) and first applied by Knight et al. (1996). Incorporating the same model used by Dunne (2005), this paper endeavors to access the impact military expenditure exerts on growth. Data for the period of 1988-2015 is employed for a pool of countries and a well-known theoretical model, fixed effect estimator, also known as the Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV) has been used as a robust econometric technique. Findings of our empirical estimation suggest that military expenditure and arms imports have a negative impact on GDP per capita but military expenditure in the presence of external conflicts also has a negative and significant impact on growth, which is contrary to most of the earlier findings in literature. Our results imply that while spending on military acts as a burden for the economic growth, frequent interstate conflicts make it crucial for countries to spend further on their military sector which can slow down the economic growth
Environmental Kuznets Curve and Income Inequality: Pooled Mean Group Estimation for Asian Developing Countries: Saif Ullah and Masood Sarwar Awan
No full textCurrent study explores the association between environmental quality and economic growth along with role of income inequality within Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) framework by using three environmental quality variables (CO2, SO2 emission and PM2.5 concentration). The panel data of developing Asian countries have been employed for the investigation. Empirical analysis has been carried out by using PMG estimation technique. Results confirmed the presence of EKC for all environmental quality indicators for developing Asian economies in the long run. However, it does not hold in case of any environment quality indicator in the short run. Moreover, the findings reveal that income inequality is positively related to CO2, SO2 emission and PM2.5 concentrations. It indicates that rise in income inequality leads to increase CO2, SO2 emission and PM2.5 concentrations in the atmosphere. Furthermore, population density, urban population, foreign direct investment and trade openness are also positively related with all environmental quality variables