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Forecasting Tax Revenue and its Volatility in Tanzania
No full textForecasting tax revenue and its predictability is important for government budgeting and tax administration purposes. This study used monthly tax revenue data for a period of 182 months spanning January 2000 to February 2015. The study applied ARMA and combined forecast models, and GARCH models to forecast tax revenue and its volatility, respectively. Tax revenue was found to increase steady over the period, although with a persistent volatility which increases over time. The observed volatility was found to be associated with taxes from bases (income) which have high volatility. Based on various forecast accuracy evaluation criteria, the study recommends combined forecasts and GARCH(1,1) models for forecasting monthly revenue and its volatility, respectively. The study further recommends enhanced diversity of taxes through widening consumption tax base within the existing tax portfolio so as to enhance its contribution to revenue collection and reduce volatility
Economic valuation of pastoral meat production system in Arusha region, Tanzania
No full textThe livestock sector in Tanzania has had and continues to have a major role for the overall national development. Historically, it has been an important arena for the debate over the appropriate development the country should undertake. Ideas of „tradition‟ and „modern‟ livestock production system(s) continue to influence policy making processes with the first, mobile pastoralism, considered backward by policy makers, and the second, the ranching system, being highly regarded in policies that touch on the development of the livestock sector as a whole. This paper uses the value chain approach as an analytical tool to provide a (re)assessment of the value of the pastoral system (from producers to end consumers) which is often absent from official statistics and figures besides the bare number of tax revenues. The analysis focuses specifically on red meat which has a crucial role for food security as well as in the culture of the country. The results of the paper show that the total value of the pastoral value chain with respect to meat only is substantially higher than the value of pastoralism reported in (scant) data in official statistics. These results strengthen the policy-related objective of the paper which is to prove the contribution of pastoralism as a highly efficient system that supports many livelihoods and worthy of more government support. The conclusion that can be drawn is that ranching system may well co-exists with pastoralism but the two need not be mutually exclusive
Breastfeeding and Child Health in Uganda
No full textThe study sets out to estimate the effect of breastfeeding and health knowledge on child mortality and stunting. We used a nationally representative UDHS data of 2011 merged with the community section of the UNHS 2011 in order to bring on board community variables, such as distance to the health facility, that are potential instrumental variables. We employed various techniques; OLS, IV and control function during the analysis. We find that breastfeeding and health knowledge reduce child mortality but not child stunting irrespective of the analytical technique employed. Just as previous literature documents, the OLS estimate of the coefficient on breastfeeding and health knowledge is biased downwards compared to the IV and control function estimates. Government efforts towards sensitizing the masses about the importance of breastfeeding should be strengthened. Additionally, government needs to prioritize health knowledge impartation to women of reproductive age that are no longer in school. Additionally school curricular should be improved to include the impartation of health knowledge to students at an early stage of education in order to mitigate poor child health outcomes for the future generation
Community Based Health Insurance Schemes and Protection of the Rural Poor: Empirical evidence from Tanzania
No full textThe objectives of this study are two folds: firstly to explore the magnitude of catastrophic expenditure, and secondly to determine its contributing factor,s including the protective impact of the voluntary community based health insurance schemes in Tanzania. The study covered 274 respondents. Study findings have shown that the estimated poverty line was Tsh.35,064.6 (US$21.25). Of the sampled respondents, 30.3% experienced catastrophic expenditure in the range of 10-20% of their capacity to pay, and 26.6% of the insured respondents experienced catastrophic expenditure. The average catastrophic expenditure for the sample is 26.64%. We used logistic regression to predict the factors influencing catastrophic health expenditure. Our results have shown that households with heads involved in social organisations or networks were more protected against catastrophic health expenditures. On the other hand, households headed by a female and involved in farming, were more likely to experience catastrophic health expenditure. Further, in households whose heads had low levels of education and households having members with recurring or chronic illness were more likely to experience catastrophic health expenditure. While households with insurance cover were more likely to be protected from the risk of catastrophic health expenditure compared with those not covered by insurance schemes, there are no significant differences in terms of lessened catastrophic expenditure that poor participants and nonparticipants enjoyed from their participation in CHF
Multilevel Analysis of Factors Associated with Child Mortality in Uganda.
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of factors associated with child mortality in Uganda. The Demographic and Health Survey data set (2006) is used to investigate these factors. A random effects regression model and logistic regression model were fitted to establish the significant factors affecting child mortality. The paper considers two types of factors which are maternal Factors (Education level, age of mother, wealth of household) and child factors (birth order, weight of child, Sex of a child, and duration of breastfeeding). Sex, birth weight, Education level, age of mother and household wealth were found to be important predictors of child mortality. However, controlling for mother level factors in model II, the within childhood characteristics were highly correlated. From an explicit multilevel analytic framework, the study therefore demonstrates that individual (child) and mother level characteristics are independent predictors of child mortality; and that there is significant variation in odds of reporting child mortality, even after controlling for effects of both child and mother-level characteristics. The p - values in the random effects model were small compared to the p – values of a standard logistic model. The results of random effects model are more statistically significant than those of a standard logistic regression model. Therefore, the random effects regression model is recommended as an appropriate alternative to standard logistic regression in order to account for variations due to a hierarchical structure
An Econometric Approach to Exchange Control Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Case of Botswana
No full textThis study assesses the impact of exchange control liberalisation on economic growth in Botswana. In literature it has been very unclear of how the liberalisation of exchange controls impacts economic growth as there has been mixed results. Botswana liberalised its exchange controls in 1999 and to date there has been no empirical study that assesses how their liberalisation has impacted Botswana’s growth. This study attempts to fill in the gap. It uses quarterly data from 1981 until 2006. Cointegration and VECM methods are used for estimation. The results show that exchange control liberalisation had no impact on economic growth in Botswana for the period studied. Botswana’s government needs to try and develop policies that will promote sectors that spur economic growth. Policies imposed should be in the form which enhance growth such as increasing capital stock and human capital in order to spur economic growth
The Effects of Job Satisfaction on Employees’ Turnover Intention in Commercial Banks in Tanzania
No full textEmployee turnover is a costly work outcome to any organization. Knowledge of the antecedents of turnover intentions helps managers design and implement turnover reversal strategies and practices to curb actual turnover. Scanty research evidence exists on antecedents of employee turnover intention in developing countries. This study investigated the effect of job satisfaction on the turnover intentions of employees of a leading commercial bank in Tanzania. A structured questionnaire was administered on a sample of 235 employees. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the level of job satisfaction and turnover intentions. Independent sample t-tests and ANOVA, with post hoc comparisons, were used to compare turnover intentions across employees’ demographic characteristics. Hierarchical multiple regression techniques were used to assess the effect of job satisfaction on turnover intention after controlling for the effects of demographic variables. Turnover intention was significantly higher among the younger, inexperienced and urban-based employees but significantly lower for the married. Overall job satisfaction, and satisfaction with pay, promotion, supervision, fringe benefits, and communication, significantly predicted employees’ turnover intentions beyond the effects of the four demographic variables investigated. Commercial banks should give a considerable attention to individual differences, overall job satisfaction, and its facets, to manage turnover intentions among their employees
A Review of the Physiological Effects of Exercise Duration and Intensity during Walking and Jogging
No full textJogging and walking are the most common aerobic exercises engaged in by numbers of people at different intensity and duration. This paper reviews research works on physiological effects of jogging at high intensity and walking for long duration. These include effects on cholesterol levels, blood glucose levels, cardiorespiratory fitness, weight loss, metabolic syndrome and flexibility. Past research works established that jogging which is at high intensity burns large amounts of calories and walking at long duration also burns calories and works muscles but at lower impact, making it easier on the joints, muscles and bones. Conclusively, the review submits that both forms of aerobic exercise, jogging and walking, are of great importance to human health but they differ in their levels of intensity and duration. Walking is a general form of exercise for everybody, both young and old regardless of their health status at certain duration while jogging is beneficial but should be prescribed and supervise
Prospects for Commercial Feedlot Finishing of Sheep in Zanzibar
No full textEvaluation of growth and carcass performance of sheep under two feedlot finishing diets was done in Zanzibar. Fifty-four sheep aged 9-12 months with initial body weight 18.9±0.6kg) were divided into three treatments T1, T2 and T3 each with three replicates. T2 and T3 sheep were assigned randomly to two concentrate formulations (concentrate 1 and concentrate 2) while T1 of similar number used as control were grazing during the day and offered no supplements. All animals in T2 and T3 were offered 600g/day concentrates and free access of green forages as basal feed. The concentrates’ principal energy ingredients were rice bran and wheat pollard included as 35% and 25% in T2 and 40% and 20% in T3 respectively while holding other ingredients constant. Feeding was done for 82 consecutive days; finally 6 animals were randomly picked from each treatment and slaughtered for carcass analysis. A taste panel was assigned to assess acceptability and ranking of mutton against beef and goat meat by consumers. The results revealed average daily gain of 19.8 ± 4.92, 90.2 ± 3.94 and 85.7 ± 3.85g/day for T1, T2 and T3, respectively. There were no significant differences on feed intake, growth performance, empty body weight and hot carcass weight between T2 and T3, however both (T2 And T3) were significantly superior (P < 0.05) to T1. The taste panellists ranked mutton as significantly superior (P < 0.05) in all quality parameters over beef and goat meat. Cash returns were significantly higher (P < 0.05) from animals receiving T2. It was concluded that concentrate 1 (T2) can profitably support an average daily gain of 90.2g for sheep entering the feedlot at 18kglive weight and producing carcasses acceptable to consumers in Zanzibar
Improving Competitiveness for SMEs to Harness Available Trade and Investment Opportunities: The Case of Tanzania
No full textLess developed countries’ capability to face global economic challenges depends so much on the stage of development of their small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Nevertheless, SMEs competitiveness in Tanzania and other developing countries face a number of encumbrances hindering their success in both local and international markets. This paper undertakes a thorough review of the factors affecting SMEs competitiveness in Tanzania. Factors affecting SMEs competitiveness include: the remaining investment climate impediments, inadequate innovation, poor infrastructure and high transactions cost. There are also hindrances related with information asymmetry, shortages and/or insufficient supply of factors of production and the poor economies of scale and scope. Based on the findings, policy recommendations for the improvement of SMEs competitiveness are made. Among others: the government should continue instituting environment conducive for businesses, promote the use of research and development outputs, emphasise business agglomerations and sharing of capacities, and continually propagate entrepreneurial attitudes and skills