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    Dynamic Prediction of Rectal Cancer Relapse and Mortality Using a Landmarking-Based Machine Learning Model: A Multicenter Retrospective Study from the Italian Society of Surgical Oncology—Colorectal Cancer Network Collaborative Group

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    Background: Almost 30% of patients with rectal cancer (RC) who submit to comprehensive treatment experience relapse. Surveillance plays a leading role in early detection. The landmark approach provides a more flexible and dynamic framework for survival prediction. Objective: This large retrospective study aims to develop a machine learning algorithm to profile the patient prognosis, especially the risk and the onset of RC relapse after curative resection. Methods: A cohort of 2450 RC patients were analyzed using landmark analysis. Model A applied a classical cause-specific Cox approach with a landmarking approach, while Model B implemented a landmarking-based RSF (random survival forest) competing risk algorithm. The two models were compared in terms of predictive and interpretative ability. A bootstrapped validation strategy was employed to validate the model’s performance and prevent overfitting. The best-performing hyperparameters were selected systematically, ensuring the model’s robustness within the landmark approach. The study assessed these factors’ importance and interactions using RSF and compared the predictive accuracy to that of the classical Cox model. Results: Model B outperformed Model A (mean C-index 0.95 vs. 0.78), capturing complex interactions and providing dynamic, individualized relapse predictions. Clinical factors influencing survival outcomes were identified across time with the landmark approach allowing for more accurate and timely predictions. Conclusions: The landmark approach offers an improvement over traditional methods in survival analysis. By accommodating time-dependent variables and the evolving nature of patient data, this approach provides a precise tool for profiling RC survival, thereby supporting more informed and dynamic clinical decision-making

    Spheroids Composed of Reaggregated Neonatal Porcine Islets and Human Endothelial Cells Accelerate Development of Normoglycemia in Diabetic Mice

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    The engraftment of transplanted islets depends on the rapid establishment of a novel vascular network. The present study evaluated the effects of cord blood-derived blood outgrowth endothelial cells (BOECs) on the viability of neonatal porcine islets (NPIs) and the post-transplant outcome of grafted NPIs. Dispersed NPIs and human BOECs were reaggregated on microwell cell culture plates and tested for their anti-apoptotic and pro-angiogenic capacity by qRT-PCR and immunohistochemistry. The in vivo functionality was analyzed after transplantation into diabetic NOD-SCID IL2rγ−/− (NSG) mice. The spheroids, which contained reaggregated neonatal porcine islet cells (REPIs) and BOECs, exhibited enhanced viability and a significantly elevated gene expression of VEGFA, angiopoetin-1, heme oxygenase-1, and TNFAIP3 (A20) in vitro. The development of normoglycemia was significantly faster in animals transplanted with spheroids in comparison to the only REPI group (median 51.5 days versus 60 days) (p < 0.05). Furthermore, intragraft vascular density was substantially increased (p < 0.01). The co-transplantation of prevascularized REPI-BOEC spheroids resulted in superior angiogenesis and accelerated in vivo function. These findings may provide a novel tool to enhance the efficacy of porcine islet xenotransplantation

    Vaccinations and regional inequalities in Italy

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    Per-oral endoscopic myotomy versus laparoscopic Heller's myotomy plus Dor fundoplication in patients with idiopathic achalasia: 5-year follow-up of a multicentre, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial

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    Background: In this trial, we previously showed per-oral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) to be non-inferior to laparoscopic Heller's myotomy (LHM) plus Dor fundoplication in managing symptoms in patients with idiopathic achalasia 2 years post-procedure. However, post-procedural gastro-oesophageal reflux was more common after POEM at 2 years. Here we report 5-year follow-up data. Methods: This study is a multicentre, randomised, open-label, non-inferiority trial performed at eight centres in six European countries (Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Belgium). Patients with symptomatic primary achalasia were eligible for inclusion if they were older than 18 years and had an Eckardt symptom score higher than 3. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1; randomly permuted blocks of sizes 4, 8, or 12) to undergo either POEM or LHM plus Dor fundoplication. The primary endpoint was clinical success, defined by an Eckardt symptom score of 3 or less without the use of additional treatments, at 2 years, and was reported previously. Prespecified secondary endpoints at 5 years were clinical success; Eckardt symptom score; Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index score; lower oesophageal sphincter function by high-resolution manometry; and parameters of post-procedural reflux (reflux oesophagitis according to the Los Angeles classification; pH-metry, and DeMeester clinical score). We hypothesised that POEM would be non-inferior (with a non-inferiority margin of –12·5 percentage points) to LHM plus Dor fundoplication with regards to clinical success. All analyses were performed on a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) population, which included all patients who underwent the assigned procedure. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01601678) and is complete. Findings: Between Dec 7, 2012, and Oct 9, 2015, 241 patients were randomly assigned (120 to POEM and 121 to LHM) and 221 had the assigned treatment (112 POEM and 109 LHM; mITT). 5-year follow up data were available for 90 (80%) patients in the POEM group and 87 (80%) patients in the LHM group. Clinical success rate at 5 years was 75·0% (95% CI 66·2 to 82·1) after POEM and 70·8% (61·7 to 78·5) after LHM (difference 4·2 percentage points [95% CI –7·4 to 15·7]). The mean Eckardt symptom score decreased from baseline to 5 years in both groups and the overall difference in mean scores was –0·29 (95% CI –0·62 to 0·05). Change in Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index scores, as well as in integrated relaxation pressure on manometry, from baseline to 5 years, did not differ significantly between the groups. At 5 years, 26 (41%) of 63 patients after POEM and 18 (31%) of 58 patients after LHM had reflux oesophagitis (difference 10·2 percentage points [95% CI –7·0 to 26·8]). Significant oesophagitis (Los Angeles classification grade B, C, or D) was observed in nine (14%) of 63 patients after POEM and in four (7%) of 58 patients after LHM. pH-metry was performed in 81 (37%) of 221 patients, with higher mean acid exposure time for POEM (10·2% [95% CI 7·6 to 14·2]) than for LHM (5·5% [3·1 to 11·8]). Significantly more patients in the POEM than in the LHM group had abnormal acid exposure time at 5 years (>4·5%; 28 [62%] of 45 vs 11 [31%] of 36; difference 31·7 percentage points [95% CI 9·8 to 50·5]). The presence of reflux symptoms at 5 years was similar in both groups, with a mean DeMeester clinical score of 1·3 (95% CI 1·0 to 1·6) after POEM and 1·1 (0·9 to 1·4) after LHM. The complications of peptic stricture, Barrett's oesophagus, and oesophageal adenocarcinoma were not reported. Interpretation: Our long-term results support the role of POEM as a less invasive myotomy approach that is non-inferior to LHM in controlling symptoms of achalasia. Gastro-oesophageal reflux was common in both groups, but with a tendency towards higher rates in the POEM group. Thus, patients should be provided with the advantages and disadvantages of each approach in decision making. Funding: European Clinical Research Infrastructure Network, Hamburgische Stiftung für Wissenschaften, Entwicklung und Kultur Helmut und Hannelore Greve, Dr med Carl-August Skröder Stiftung, Dr Gerhard Büchtemann Stiftung, Agnes-Graefe Stiftung, Georg und Jürgen Rickertsen Stiftung, Reinhard Frank Stiftung, Johann Max Böttcher Stiftung, Richard und Annemarie Wolf Stiftung, Olympus Europa, German Society for Gastroenterology and Metabolism and Olympus Europe Foundation, United European Gastroenterology Week, Olympus EuroNOTES Research Fund Program, Harvard Catalyst, the Harvard Clinical and Translational Science Center, and Harvard University and its affiliated academic health-care centres

    Acute Heart Failure: Transitioning From Symptom-Based Care to Remission

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    During the past century, the characteristics of patients with heart failure (HF) and acute HF (AHF) have shifted from patients with severe pump failure due to rheumatic, hypertensive and ischemic heart disease to older and more obese patients with multiple severe comorbidities. The pathophysiology of AHF has shifted, in parallel, from that of advanced, end-stage pump failure caused by severe left ventricular dysfunction to age, obesity and comorbidity-related cardiovascular dysfunction combined with neurohormonal and inflammatory dysregulation or “inflammaging.” With the advent of neurohormonal blockers leading to improved outcomes of patients with chronic HF, the focus of AHF therapy has also changed from care directed at early symptom improvement to therapies directed toward longer-term improvements in quality of life and outcomes. Studies conducted in the past 5 years suggest that the beneficial effects seen with the 4 pillars of guideline-directed medical therapy for HF, mostly comprising neurohormonal blockade, can be extended to AHF when these therapies are initiated and rapidly uptitrated during admission and after discharge. A recent pilot study, CORTAHF (Effect of Short-Term Prednisone Therapy on CRP Change in Emergency Department Patients With Acute Heart Failure and Elevated Inflammatory Markers), has suggested that these benefits can be extended by treating patients with AHF and markers of inflammatory activation with anti-inflammatory therapies. Future studies should further examine whether combined anti-inflammatory therapy and neurohormonal blockade can lead to the reversal of disrupted underlying pathophysiology and remission in patients with AHF

    Boundaries of the foreign language effect under conditions of uncertainty

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    People's decisions may change when made in a foreign language (FL). Research testing this foreign language effect (FLE) has mostly used scenarios where uncertainty is expunged or reduced to a form of risk, whereas real-life decisions are usually characterized by uncertainty around outcome likelihood. In the current work, we aimed to investigate whether the FLE on decision-making extends to uncertain scenarios. Moreover, as it is still unclear what linguistic and psychological factors contribute to the FLE, we tested the effects of participants' FL background, cognitive style and risk-taking attitude on decision processes under certain and uncertain conditions. Overall, we report null effects of language context (native versus foreign language) and problem condition (certain versus uncertain prospects) on participants' choices. In addition, we found that both FL background and decision makers' traits modulated participants' choices in a FL, without emerging into the 'classic' FLE on decision-making. However, the direction of such effects was complex, and not always compatible with previous FLE theories. In light of these results, our study highlights the need to reconceptualize the FLE and its implications on decision-making

    History of Peripartum Depression Moderates the Association Between Estradiol Polygenic Risk Scores and Basal Ganglia Volumes in Major Depressive Disorder

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    Background: The neurobiological differences between women who have experienced a peripartum episode and those who have only had episodes outside of this period are not well understood. Methods: Sixty-four parous female patients with major depressive disorder who had either a positive (n = 30) or negative (n = 34) history of peripartum depression (PPD) underwent magnetic resonance imaging acquisition to obtain structural brain images. An independent 2-sample t test comparing patients with and without a history of PPD was performed using voxel-based morphometry analysis. Additionally, polygenic risk scores for estradiol were calculated, and a moderation analysis was conducted between 3 estradiol polygenic risk scores and PPD history status on extracted cluster volumes using IBM SPSS PROCESS macro. Results: The voxel-based morphometry analysis identified larger gray matter volumes in bilateral clusters encompassing the putamen, pallidum, caudate, and thalamus in patients with a PPD history than in patients without a history. The moderation analysis identified a significant interaction effect between 2 estradiol polygenic risk scores and PPD history on gray matter cluster volumes, with a positive effect in women with PPD and a negative effect in women with no history of PPD. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that women who have experienced a peripartum episode are neurobiologically distinct from women who have no history of PPD in a cluster within the basal ganglia, an area important for motivation, decision making, and emotional processing. Furthermore, we show that the genetic load for estradiol has a differing effect in this area based on PPD status, which supports the claim that PPD is associated with sensitivity to sex steroid hormones

    Post-transplant cyclophosphamide separates graft-versus host disease and graft versus leukemia effects after HLA-matched stem-cell transplantation for acute myeloid leukemia

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    : The association of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) effects after allogeneic stem-cell transplantation (SCT) is well-established but was not confirmed in the modern era and following post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy). We assessed GVHD/ GVL association in AML patients following HLA-matched SCT with standard calcineurin-based (n = 12,653, 57% with additional in-vivo T-cell depletion) or PTCy-based (n = 508) GVHD prophylaxis. Following standard prophylaxis, acute GVHD grade II-IV and III-IV, chronic GVHD, and extensive chronic GVHD rates were 23.8%, 7.5%, 37.0%, and 16.3%, respectively. Acute GVHD grade II and III-IV were associated with lower relapse [hazard-ratio (HR) 0.85, P = 0.002; HR 0.76, P = 0.003, respectively)], higher non-relapse mortality (NRM) (HR 1.5, P &lt; 0.001; HR 6.21, P &lt; 0.001) and lower overall survival (OS) (HR 1.49, P &lt; 0.001; HR 6.1, P &lt; 0.001). Extensive chronic GVHD predicted lower relapse (HR 0.69, P &lt; 0.001), higher NRM (HR 2.83, P &lt; 0.001), and lower OS (HR 2.74, P &lt; 0.001). Following PTCy, GVHD rates were 22.8%, 6.2%, 35.5%, and 17.7%, respectively. Acute GVHD was not associated with relapse (HR 1.37, P = 0.15) but predicted higher NRM (HR 3.34, P &lt; 0.001) and lower OS (HR 1.92, P = 0.001). Chronic GVHD was not prognostic for these outcomes. In conclusion, GVHD and GVL are strongly associated with contemporary SCT. However, following PTCy, GVHD is not associated with reduced relapse.The association of graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) effects after allogeneic stem-cell transplantation (SCT) is well-established but was not confirmed in the modern era and following post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy). We assessed GVHD/ GVL association in AML patients following HLA-matched SCT with standard calcineurin-based (n = 12,653, 57% with additional in-vivo T-cell depletion) or PTCy-based (n = 508) GVHD prophylaxis. Following standard prophylaxis, acute GVHD grade II-IV and III-IV, chronic GVHD, and extensive chronic GVHD rates were 23.8%, 7.5%, 37.0%, and 16.3%, respectively. Acute GVHD grade II and III-IV were associated with lower relapse [hazard-ratio (HR) 0.85, P = 0.002; HR 0.76, P = 0.003, respectively)], higher non-relapse mortality (NRM) (HR 1.5, P < 0.001; HR 6.21, P < 0.001) and lower overall survival (OS) (HR 1.49, P < 0.001; HR 6.1, P < 0.001). Extensive chronic GVHD predicted lower relapse (HR 0.69, P < 0.001), higher NRM (HR 2.83, P < 0.001), and lower OS (HR 2.74, P < 0.001). Following PTCy, GVHD rates were 22.8%, 6.2%, 35.5%, and 17.7%, respectively. Acute GVHD was not associated with relapse (HR 1.37, P = 0.15) but predicted higher NRM (HR 3.34, P < 0.001) and lower OS (HR 1.92, P = 0.001). Chronic GVHD was not prognostic for these outcomes. In conclusion, GVHD and GVL are strongly associated with contemporary SCT. However, following PTCy, GVHD is not associated with reduced relapse

    Venous Thromboembolism in Patients with Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A Systematic Review of Incidence, Types, and Clinical Outcomes

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    Background: Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are a heterogeneous group of tumors with unique biological characteristics and complications, including thromboembolism. This systematic review evaluates the incidence, types, and clinical outcomes of venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) in NEN patients. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed, Scopus, and Embase was conducted to identify studies on TEs in NENs. Eligible studies included case reports, case series, and retrospective cohort studies reporting VTEs, including deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and visceral vein thrombosis (VVT). Data were extracted on tumor site, functionality, differentiation grade, and VTE type. Results: In total, 33 studies were included, comprising 26 case reports, 2 case series, and 5 retrospective cohort studies. VTE prevalence ranged from 7.5% to 33% across studies. The most common VTEs were DVT, PE, and portal vein thrombosis (PVT). A meta-analysis revealed a pooled VTE prevalence of 11.1% (95% CI: 9.07–13.53%). Pancreatic NENs exhibited the highest thrombotic burden, particularly in poorly differentiated and advanced-stage tumors. Functioning tumors, including glucagonomas and ACTH-secreting NENs, were strongly associated with VTEs, potentially related to their systemic effects on coagulation and inflammation. Conclusions: Venous thromboembolism is a significant complication in NEN patients, especially in advanced or poorly differentiated tumors. Early detection and targeted management are critical for improving outcomes. Further investigations are required to clarify the mechanisms underlying thromboembolism in NENs and to develop optimized prophylactic and therapeutic strategies tailored to this patient population

    The Influence of Tumor Burden Score and Lymph Node Metastasis on the Survival Benefit of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

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    Introduction: While postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) is generally recommended for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), its benefit remains debated. This study aimed to identify patients that may benefit from AC following liver resection of ICC. Methods: Patients who underwent liver resection for ICC between 2000 and 2023 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Individual multivariable Cox models were used to evaluate the interaction between each prognostic factor and the effect of AC on survival. Results: Among 1412 patients, 431 (30.5%) received AC. Both higher tumor burden score (TBS; hazard ratio [HR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91–1.00; p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.033) and metastatic lymph node status (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38–0.89; p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.014) demonstrated interactions with the survival benefit from receipt of AC. Interaction plots highlighted how AC was associated with improved survival beyond a TBS of approximately 6. Notably, among 555 (39.3%) patients with TBS &lt;6 and N0 or Nx status, 5-year overall survival (OS) was no different between patients who received AC versus individuals who did not (55.1% [95% CI 48.9–62.1] vs. 58.7% [95% CI 49.8–69.2]; p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.900). In contrast, among 857 (60.7%) patients with TBS ≥6 or N1 status, AC was associated with improved 5-year OS (30.7% [95% CI 26.2–36.0] vs. 33.0% [95% CI 26.9–40.5]; p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.018). Conclusions: TBS and lymph node status may be useful in a multidisciplinary setting to inform decisions about AC planning for ICC patients following curative-intent resection

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