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Russia Is Losing Its Near Abroad
No full textJeffrey Mankoff of INSS writes this piece for Foreign Affairs. The article examines U.S. policy opportunities in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, where regional governments seek greater coordination and diversified partnerships beyond Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran. Washington can discreetly support these efforts by lowering barriers to trade, facilitating the entry of Western—particularly American—firms into energy, infrastructure, and critical minerals projects, and emphasizing economic cooperation through forums such as the C5+1 ministerial conference. While domestic politics in these states may diverge from U.S. preferences, their shared interest in resisting Russian dominance creates strategic alignment with Washington. Sustained U.S. engagement, calibrated to empower local actors while promoting diversified economic and political ties, advances both regional resilience and America’s broader objective of preventing the reemergence of a Russian sphere of influence in Eurasia
Russia\u27s Feisty Neighborhood
No full textIn this episode of The Power Vertical Podcast, host Brian Whitmore speaks with Jeff Mankoff, a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) Center for Strategy and Military Power, about rising tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan following a brutal crackdown and arrests on both sides. They explore how Azerbaijan’s assertiveness reflects shifting power dynamics in the former Soviet space and its growing confidence after victory in Karabakh. The conversation also covers Azerbaijan’s energy clout, ties to Turkey, and Moscow’s costs from escalating tensions. Later, they examine Russia’s faltering effort to rally the Global South against the West, with BRICS losing momentum.https://digitalcommons.ndu.edu/podcasts/1010/thumbnail.jp
Dual use and gain-of-function research: a significant endeavor with biosecurity imperatives
No full textDr. Diane DiEuliis, in the INSS Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Dr. James Giordano, in the INSS Center for Disruptive Technology and Future Warfare, published a new paper in mSphere. The paper addresses the timely and controversial topic of gain-of-function research, its dual-use potential, and implications for US and global biosecurity. The current U.S. administration has recently proposed a pause on all domestic gain-of-function (GoF) research in order to fully revise existing policy. However, domestic controls on GoF research cannot mandate that other nations follow suit and thus do not prohibit non-compliant nations from engaging in such work. In fact, such national constraints may facilitate opportunities for competitor and adversarial nations (and non-state actors) to advance efforts in this space toward nefarious applications. Moreover, certain groups may argue that GoF research may be necessary for advancing biomedical science (A. Casadevall, F. C. Fang, and M. J. Imperiale, mSphere 9:e00714-23, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1128/msphere.00714-23) and global health security and, through this stance, conduct GoF research that has direct dual-use viability. In this light, we argue that all GoF research should be conducted under a robust framework of enhanced BSL controls that explicitly define its dual usability, classify any such enterprise as DURC, engage regulatory oversight, and establish ethical responsibility within the scope and tenor of international law. This essay describes the possible burdens and risks of GoF research, and in addressing the challenges posed by such work, proposes recommendations for future policy toward sustaining beneficial outcomes and preventing or mitigating threats to public health and global biosecurity
The Imperial Trap: Russia’s War in Ukraine and the Lessons of Failed Conquests
No full textDr. Jeffrey Mankoff, in the INSS Center for Strategy and Military Power, authors this War on the Rocks article that analyzes the Russia–Ukraine war as a protracted conflict of attrition. It examines Russia’s structural political and economic limitations, Ukraine’s strategy of strategic neutralization, and the decisive role of sustained Western support in shaping long-term outcomes. Drawing on historical precedents of Russian imperial overreach, the article challenges Moscow’s assumption that time inherently favors Russia and assesses the war’s implications for political cohesion, economic resilience, and military reconstitution
Warship Weapons for Merchant Ship Platforms
No full textIn the past half decade, innovators have heeded calls to increase the Navy’s ship count by putting containerized missiles on merchant ships. They have improved the weapons, drones, and sensors to the point the Navy is experimenting with mounting them on container ships.1 Even so, U.S. politicians, military leaders, and analysts continue to overemphasize the number of destroyers, cruisers, frigates, etc., the Navy needs. But the Navy has acknowledged it cannot meet its goal of 380-plus ships any time soon: In October 2024, Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Warfighting Requirements and Capabilities Vice Admiral James Pitts noted that, if the budget is kept at the projected level, that number would be unobtainable
Space Warfare: Strategy, Principles and Policy, 2nd ed.
No full textThe second edition of Space Warfare by John J. Klein offers a timely and comprehensive update to a foundational text in spacepower strategy. Reviewed by Pennington and Kanarowski, this expanded volume deepens Klein’s signature analogies between maritime and space domains while addressing the significant geopolitical, doctrinal, and legal changes that have reshaped military space operations since the book’s original release in 2006. Notable additions include new chapters on space-based offensive and defensive platforms, “Guardian Angels” and “Celestial Demons,” and a thought-provoking call for a future Space National Guard. While some proposals are forward-looking, Klein’s work remains grounded in strategic theory, drawing heavily from Corbett and Mahan. The review praises the book’s enduring relevance, expanded scope, and intellectual clarity, positioning it as an essential guide for strategists navigating the contested final frontier
Adopting a Data-Centric Mindset for Operational Planning
No full textThe Department of Defense (DOD) is investing heavily in advanced technologies, but its true advantage lies in adopting a data-centric mindset that prioritizes the collection, integration, and use of data to drive faster, smarter decision-making. To modernize its outdated operational planning processes, the DOD must replace static tools like PowerPoint and spreadsheets with real-time data visualizations, automated systems, and standardized data collection templates. By formalizing a data-first culture, operational planning can identify and address critical information gaps, improve battlefield awareness, and accelerate mission execution. This approach enables commanders to make more informed decisions while unlocking the full potential of artificial intelligence and automation. Drawing from Cold War-era lessons, where innovation and doctrine aligned to maintain military superiority, the DOD can ensure its edge in future conflicts by embedding data-driven practices into every level of planning and execution
The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the 21st Century’s Greatest Dilemma
No full textMustafa Suleyman’s The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the 21st Century’s Greatest Dilemma explores the transformative and disruptive impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology (SynBio), highlighting their potential benefits and existential risks. Suleyman, a co-founder of Google DeepMind, examines the containment problem —how to manage the unforeseen consequences of these rapidly advancing technologies. He underscores the democratization of power these technologies enable, their global accessibility, and their potential to create profound societal changes. While Suleyman argues that reinforcing nation-states is essential for containment, the book raises questions about whether international cooperation might be a more viable solution. Suleyman presents practical mechanisms for managing risks, including regulation, transparency, and accountability, while discussing the military and geopolitical implications of emerging technologies like China’s advances in AI and quantum communication. The book offers critical insights for policymakers, military leaders, and technologists, emphasizing the urgent need for collaboration and new governance models to navigate this era of disruptive innovation
Is Mobilization a Major Question?
No full textAs tensions with China escalate in 2027, the U.S. President invokes the Defense Production Act (DPA) to accelerate weapons production. But major defense contractors push back, citing profit risks and legal uncertainty and take the matter to court. Their challenge is strengthened by two recent Supreme Court decisions: the rise of the Major Questions Doctrine, which limits executive authority without clear congressional backing, and the end of Chevron deference, which had long allowed agencies flexibility in interpreting statutes. These legal shifts make mobilizing U.S. industry for national defense slower and riskier, as corporations prioritize shareholder interests and litigation becomes more likely. The article warns that in a crisis, delays caused by lawsuits could be as damaging as any foreign threat. To prevent this, the author urges Congress and the Department of Defense to clarify statutory authority and mobilization plans now, before a legal battle undermines America’s ability to respond
Increasing Operational Access: A Strategy for the Western Pacific
No full textThis article presents a comprehensive argument for why the United States must enhance its military and strategic mobility in the Western Pacific to counter the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) growing regional assertiveness. The article contends that maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific requires a whole-of-government approach to operational access, blending diplomatic outreach, economic engagement, strategic communication, and military posture. Current U.S. basing and access agreements, rooted in Cold War dynamics, no longer suffice for effective power projection in today’s contested environment. To enable integrated deterrence and flexible crisis response, the United States must expand distributed access points, deepen partnerships, and reassure allies while managing PRC perceptions to prevent strategic miscalculation. Operational access emerges not only as a military necessity but also as a tool for regional stability, democratic resilience, and long-term strategic influence across the Indo-Pacific