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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Times of Crises: A New Keynesian Perspective in Continuous Time
No full textTo analyse the interdependence between monetary and fiscal policy during a financial crisis, we develop an open-economy DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy as well as financial markets in a continuous-time framework based on stochastic differential equations. Monetary policy is modelled using both a standard and a modified Taylor rule and fiscal policy is modelled as either expansionary or austere. In addition, we differentiate between open economies and monetary union members. We find evidence that the modified Taylor rule notably reduces the likelihood that the financial market crisis affects the real economy. But if we assume that households are averse with respect to outstanding government debt, we find that a combination of expansionary monetary policy and austere fiscal policy provides better stabilisation of both domestic and foreign economies in terms of both output and inflation. In the case of a monetary union, we find that stabilisation of output in the country where the financial shock originates is no longer as easy and, in terms of prices, there is now deflation in the country where the crisis originated and a positive inflation rate in the other country
Access to Data in Connected Cars and the Recent Reform of the Motor Vehicle Type Approval Regulation
No full textThe need for regulatory solutions for access to in-vehicle data and resources of connected cars is one of the big controversial and unsolved policy issues. Last year the EU revised the Motor Vehicle Type Approval Regulation which already entailed a FRAND-like solution for the access to repair and maintenance information (RMI) to protect competition on the automotive aftermarkets. However, the transition to connected cars changes the technological conditions for this regulatory solution significantly. This paper analyzes the reform of the type approval regulation and shows that the regulatory solutions for access to RMI are so far only very insufficiently capable of dealing with the challenges coming along with increased connectivity, e.g. with regard to the new remote diagnostic, repair and maintenance services. Therefore, an important result of the paper is that the transition to connected cars will require a further reform of the rules for the regulated access to RMI (esp. with regard to data access, interoperability, and safety/security issues). However, our analysis also suggests that the basic approach of the current regulated access regime for RMI in the type approval regulation can also be a model for developing general solutions for the currently unsolved problems of access to in-vehicle data and resources in the ecosystem of connected driving
The Effect of Legislated Tax Changes on the Trade Balance: Empirical Evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom
No full textUsing a narrative account of quarterly discretionary changes in tax liabilities from 1974Q4 to 2018Q2 in a VAR setting, we study whether legislative tax changes affect the trade balance in the US, Germany, and the UK. As legislative tax changes we consider (i) all changes, (ii) personal income tax changes, (iii) business tax changes, (iv) indirect tax changes in Germany and the UK, (v) asymmetric reactions after tax hikes and cuts, and (vi) spillovers of US tax changes into Germany and the UK. Generally, we find that after a reduction in aggregated tax liabilities, exports in the US and the UK react quite similarly and tend to fall, whereas imports tend to rise across all three countries. Consequently—and fostered by growing output—the net-exports-to-GDP ratio decreases, significantly so in the US and UK. When disaggregating the tax shocks, we find similar reactions in the US and UK, whereas for Germany, we often find a symmetric reaction of exports and imports, leaving the NEX-to-GDP ratio unchanged. However, employing normal variations of the tax changes as a yardstick, the economic magnitude of the estimated effects on the trade variables is not particularly large
The Choice of Institutions to Solve Cooperation Problems: A Survey of Experimental Research
No full textA growing experimental literature studies the endogenous choice of institutions to solve cooperation problems arising in prisoners’ dilemmas, public goods games, and common pool resource games. Participants in these experiments have the opportunity to influence the rules of the game before they play the game. In this paper, we review the experimental literature of the last 20 years on the choice of institutions and describe what has been learned about the quality and the determinants of institutional choice. Almost all institutions improve cooperation if they are implemented, but they are not always implemented by the players. Institutional costs, remaining free‐riding incentives, and a lack of learning opportunities are the most important barriers. At the individual level, own cooperativeness and beliefs about other players’ behavior can be identified as important determinants of institutional choice. Cooperation tends to be higher under endogenously chosen institutions than exogenously imposed institutions. However, a significant share of players fails to implement the institution and they often perform poorly, which is why we cannot conclude that letting people choose is better than enforcing institutions from outside
Cardiovascular predictors of mortality and exacerbations in patients with COPD
No full textIn chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), comorbidities and worse functional status predict worse outcomes, but how these predictors compare with regard to different outcomes is not well studied. We thus compared the role of cardiovascular comorbidities for mortality and exacerbations. Data from baseline and up to four follow-up visits of the COSYCONET cohort were used. Cox or Poisson regression was employed to determine the relationship of predictors to mortality or mean annual exacerbation rate, respectively. Predictors comprised major comorbidities (including cardiovascular disease), lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV1], diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide [TLCO]) and their changes over time, baseline symptoms, exacerbations, physical activity, and cardiovascular medication. Overall, 1817 patients were included. Chronic coronary artery disease (p = 0.005), hypertension (p = 0.044) and the annual decline in TLCO (p = 0.001), but not FEV1 decline, were predictors of mortality. In contrast, the annual decline of FEV1 (p = 0.019) but not that of TLCO or cardiovascular comorbidities were linked to annual exacerbation rate. In conclusion, the presence of chronic coronary artery disease and hypertension were predictors of increased mortality in COPD, but not of increased exacerbation risk. This emphasizes the need for broad diagnostic workup in COPD, including the assessment of cardiovascular comorbidity.Gefördert durch den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der UB Marburg
Zur strukturellen Finanzlage der Länder: eine aktuelle Auswertung und Methodenkritik
No full textSeit Einführung der neuen Schuldenregel hat sich die Finanzlage der deutschen Bundesländer deutlich verbessert. Nach unseren Berechnungen mit dem Aggregierten Quotierungsverfahren konnten die meisten Länder ihre strukturellen Budgetdefizite abbauen und im Jahr 2017 schon 14 Länder strukturelle Budgetüberschüsse erzielen; lediglich das Saarland und Nordrhein‐ Westfalen wiesen strukturelle Defizite auf. Die „strukturelle“ Besserung überzeichnet indes die Konsolidierungsfortschritte, denn sie ist zum großen Teil dem historisch niedrigen Zinsniveau zu verdanken, das zu erheblichen Einsparungen beim Schuldendienst führte. Da die Finanzierungskonditionen aber nicht dauerhaft so günstig bleiben wie in den vergangenen Jahren, verdecken die Zinsersparnisse den bei vielen Ländern noch bestehenden Konsolidierungsbedarf. Wir plädieren daher dafür, nur nachhaltige Einsparungen bei den Zinslasten als strukturelle Besserung zu klassifizieren und entwickeln ein Bereinigungsverfahren, das neben den Konjunktureinflüssen auch die Verzerrung durch das äußerst niedrige Zinsniveau beachtet. Unsere Simulationen zeigen, dass nach einer Bereinigung um die nicht nachhaltigen Einsparungen beim Schuldendienst nicht mehr 14, sondern nur neun Länder im Jahr 2017 einen strukturell mindestens ausgeglichenen Haushalt erzielt haben. Bei den verbleibenden sieben Ländern besteht teilweise noch erheblicher Konsolidierungsbedarf. Wir zeigen darüber hinaus, dass die zur quantitativen Vergleichbarkeit der Länderfinanzen in der Regel verwandten Einwohner‐Indikatoren wesentliche Strukturunterschiede zwischen den Ländern unberücksichtigt lassen und damit zu irreführenden Schlussfolgerungen führen können. Wir empfehlen daher, bei Ländervergleichen Kennzahlen zu verwenden, die strukturelle Unterschiede zwischen den Ländern bei Erwerbstätigkeit und Produktivität beachten
Rolle der von Makrophagen sezernierten diffundierbaren Signale bei der Chemotaxis von Escherichia coli
No full textMeine Doktorarbeit untersuchte die bakterielle Chemotaxis zu
diffundierbaren Signalen, die von Makrophagen ausgeschieden
werden, unter Verwendung des Modellorganismus Escherichia coli.
Während umfangreiches Wissen über die Physiologie dieses
Mikroorganismus besteht, wurde weniger Forschung betrieben, um
seine Interaktion mit ausgeschiedenen Signalen von Zellen des
Immunsystems zu verstehen. Meine Forschung zielte darauf ab,
Metaboliten zu identifizieren, die in den Kulturüberständen von
Makrophagen ausgeschieden werden, und systematisch ihre Fähigkeit
zu testen, eine chemotaktische Reaktion in E. coli auszulösen. Zu
diesem Zweck führte ich eine vergleichende Metabolomik-Studie über
die ausgeschiedenen Metaboliten von M1-Makrophagen
(mikrobizid/inflammatorisches Phänotyp), M2-Makrophagen (anti-
inflammatorisches Phänotyp) und Mφ-Makrophagen (ruhender
Phänotyp) durch. Meine Daten zeigten, dass die ausgeschiedenen
Metaboliten in den Kulturüberständen hauptsächlich Produkte des
Tryptophanabbaus waren. Um festzustellen, ob E. coli Chemotaxis
gegenüber einem dieser Überstände zeigte, führte ich einen direkten
Vergleich durch, nachdem ich sie mit E. coli-Zellen in einem
Mikrofluidik-Chip gemischt hatte.Ich fand heraus, dass E. coli eine
Anziehungsantwort auf Überstände von stimulierten Makrophagen
(M1 und M2) zeigte. Diese Reaktionen konnten jedoch nicht auf die
Produkte des Tryptophanabbaus zurückgeführt werden, was darauf
hindeutet, dass potenzielle Chemoeffektoren, die im Medium
ausgeschieden werden, aus verschiedenen Stoffwechselwegen
stammen.
PCA enthüllte, dass der Metabolitengehalt in Bezug auf Quantität und
Qualität für Mφ und M2 ähnlich war. Im Gegensatz dazu waren M1-
Makrophagen von M2 und Mφ unterschieden. Diese Unterscheidung
beruhte hauptsächlich auf dem umfangreichen Abbau von Tryptophan
und der Ausscheidung von Kynurenin-Metaboliten. Daher
unterschieden sich die Arten von Metaboliten, die von allen drei
Makrophagen-Phänotypen ausgeschieden wurden, signifikant in den
Mengen an Kynurenin-Metaboliten. Zusätzlich wurden Verbindungen
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
aus dem Serotonin-Stoffwechsel in hohen Mengen in den Überständen
der Makrophagen ausgeschieden. Wir haben auch festgestellt, dass
M1-Makrophagen Komponenten der Melanin-Synthese und einen
Chemotaktant für die entzündliche Rekrutierung von Neutrophilen
ausscheiden — 5-Hydroxyindolessigsäure (5-HIAA).
Nukleoside sind bekannt dafür, dass sie in Kulturen von
mäuseabgeleiteten Knochenmarksmakrophagen (BMDMs)
ausgeschieden werden. Um chemotaktische Antworten auf Nukleoside
zu testen, verwendete ich einen FRET-basierten Chemotaxis-Assay
unter Verwendung des E. coli W3110-Stamms als Modellorganismus.
Die wichtigste Erkenntnis meiner Chemotaxis-Experimente war, dass E.
coli eine Anziehungsantwort auf Nukleoside zeigte. Experimente mit
Chemorezeptor-Mutanten bestätigten, dass Pyrimidin-Nukleoside
durch den Tap-Chemorezeptor erkannt werden. Dynamische
Reaktionsmessungen zeigten, dass diese Erkennung durch indirekte
Bindung an Tap erfolgt, was auf die Beteiligung eines unbekannten
Nukleosid-bindenden Proteins im Periplasma hinweist, das mit Tap
interagiert, um die Chemotaxis zu Nukleosiden zu vermitteln. Unter den
getesteten Nukleosiden zeigte E. coli eine chemotaktische Reaktion auf
Pyrimidin-Deoxyribonukleoside – Thymin und Desoxycytidin – mit
hoher Sensitivität. Uridin und die Purin-Ausnahme – Deoxyguanosin –
zeigten ähnliche Reaktionen. Interessanterweise zeigte unter den
Nukleobasen nur Uracil eine Anziehungsantwort.
Die aus meiner Dissertation gezogenen Schlussfolgerungen erfordern
weitere Forschung, die darauf abzielt, die Rolle der bakteriellen
Chemotaxis zu Nukleosiden im Kontext von Infektionen und chronisch-
entzündlichen Erkrankungen zu klären.My PhD thesis explored bacterial chemotaxis to diffusible signals
secreted by macrophages, using the model organism Escherichia coli.
While an extensive knowledge exists on the physiology of this
microorganism, less research has been done to understand its
interaction with secreted signals from cells of the immune system. My
research aimed to identify metabolites secreted in the culture
supernatants of macrophages and systematically, test their ability to
elicit chemotactic response in E.coli.
To this end, I performed a comparative metabolomics study on the
secreted metabolites of M1 macrophages (microbicidal/inflammatory
phenotype), M2 macrophages (anti-inflammatory phenotype), and Mφ
macrophages (resting phenotype). My data revealed that the secreted
metabolites in the culture supernatants were predominantly products
of tryptophan degradation. To determine whether E. coli exhibited
chemotaxis towards any of these supernatants, I conducted a side-by-
side comparison after mixing them with E. coli cells in a microfluidic
chip. I found that E. coli showed an attractant response towards
supernatants from stimulated macrophages (M1 and M2). However,
these responses could not be attributed to the tryptophan degradation
products suggesting that putative chemoeffectors secreted in the
medium are from different pathways.
PCA uncovered that the metabolite content, both in terms of quantity
and quality, were similar for Mφ and M2. In contrast, M1 macrophages
were distinct from both M2 and Mφ. This distinction was primarily due
to the extensive degradation of tryptophan and secretion of kynurenine
metabolites. Therefore, while the types of metabolites secreted by all
three macrophage phenotypes were similar, they differed significantly
in the levels of kynurenine metabolites. Additionally, compounds from
serotonin metabolism were highly secreted in macrophage
SUMMARY
supernatants. We also found that M1 macrophages secrete
components of melanin synthesis and a chemoattractant for
inflammatory recruitment of neutrophils—5-Hydroxyindoleacetic acid
(5-HIAA).
Nucleosides are known to be secreted in cultures of mouse bone-
marrow derived macrophages (BMDMs). To test chemotactic
responses to nucleosides, I employed a FRET-based chemotaxis assay
using the E. coli W3110 strain as the model organism.
The major finding of my chemotaxis experiments was that E. coli
exhibited an attractant response to nucleosides. Experiments with
chemoreceptor mutants confirmed that pyrimidine nucleosides are
sensed by the Tap chemoreceptor. Dynamic response measurements
revealed that this sensing occurs through indirect binding to Tap,
suggesting the involvement of an unknown nucleoside binding protein
in the periplasm that interacts with Tap to mediate chemotaxis to
nucleosides.
Among the tested nucleosides, E. coli exhibited a chemotactic response
to pyrimidine deoxyribonucleosides—thymidine and deoxycytidine—
with high sensitivity. Uridine and the purine exception—
deoxyguanosine—showed similar responses. Interestingly, among the
nucleobases, only uracil demonstrated an attractant response.
The conclusions drawn from my thesis warrants for further research
aimed at elucidating the role of bacterial chemotaxis to nucleosides in
context of infections
Does Prostitution Constrain Sex Crimes? Micro-Evidence from Korea
No full textThis paper investigates empirically whether prostitution reduces sex crimes.
Theoretical predictions suggest two contradicting effects: substituting or complementing. By using survey data of sex offenders in Korea, I find that prostitution increases the probability of committing sex crimes. Also, the experience of buying sex with a minor exacerbates the severity of sex crimes. These results indicate that prostitution intensifies one’s propensities for more violent sexual behaviors, suggesting a complementary relationship between prostitution and sex crimes. The main findings do not alter after accounting for the endogeneity of the model by applying an exogenous instrument – the location of red-light districts
Trans-ancestry polygenic models for the prediction of LDL blood levels: an analysis of the United Kingdom Biobank and Taiwan Biobank
No full textPolygenic risk score (PRS) predictions often show bias toward the population of available genome-wide association studies (GWASs), which is typically of European ancestry. This study aimed to assess the performance differences of ancestry-specific PRS and test the implementation of multi-ancestry PRS to enhance the generalizability of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol predictions in the East Asian (EAS) population. In this study, we computed ancestry-specific and multi-ancestry PRSs for LDL using data obtained from the Global Lipid Genetics Consortium, while accounting for population-specific linkage disequilibrium patterns using the PRS-CSx method in the United Kingdom Biobank dataset (UKB, n = 423,596) and Taiwan Biobank dataset (TWB, n = 68,978). Population-specific PRSs were able to predict LDL levels better within the target population, whereas multi-ancestry PRSs were more generalizable. In the TWB dataset, covariate-adjusted R2 values were 9.3% for ancestry-specific PRS, 6.7% for multi-ancestry PRS, and 4.5% for European-specific PRS. Similar trends (8.6%, 7.8%, and 6.2%) were observed in the smaller EAS population of the UKB (n = 1,480). Consistent with R2 values, PRS stratification in EAS regions (TWB) effectively captured a heterogenous variability in LDL blood cholesterol levels across PRS strata. The mean difference in LDL levels between the lowest and highest EAS-specific PRS (EAS_PRS) deciles was 0.82, compared to 0.59 for European-specific PRS (EUR_PRS) and 0.76 for multi-ancestry PRS. Notably, the mean LDL values in the top decile of multi-ancestry PRS were comparable to those of EAS_PRS (3.543 vs. 3.541, p = 0.86). Our analysis of the PRS prediction model for LDL cholesterol further supports the issue of PRS generalizability across populations. Our targeted analysis of the EAS population revealed that integrating non-European genotyping data with a powerful European-based GWAS can enhance the generalizability of LDL PRS.Gefördert durch den Open-Access-Publikationsfonds der UB Marburg
How Monetary Policy is Made: Two Canadian Tales
No full textThis paper examines the policy rate recommendations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council (GC) and the C.D. Howe Institute’s Monetary Policy Council (MPC) since 2003. We find, first, that differences in the median recommendations between the MPC and the GC are persistent but small (i.e., 25 bps). The median MPC recommendation is based on a higher steady state real interest rate. However, the response of the MPC and the GC to output and inflation shocks are, for the most part, comparable. Second, we are also able to examine the individual recommendations for the MPC. Estimates of the determinants of consensus inside the MPC or disagreement with the GC yield some useful insights. For example, disagreements are more likely when rates are proposed to rise than at other times. Equally interesting is the finding that the Bank of Canada conditional commitment on the overnight rate in 2009‐10 has a relatively larger restricting impact on the MPC’s median recommendation than the GC’s target rate