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Global Carbon Budget 2024
No full textAccurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ.
For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink
Exploring regional development pathways through nature recovery across England's rural-periphery
No full textThis research explored the potential for nature recovery to underpin regional development in the rural-periphery. The thesis brings together emerging debates around nature recovery and regional development, as well as connecting rural and peripheral regions. The research considered the dynamics influencing regional development in rural and peripheral places and the effectiveness of current public and private financing models aimed at nature recovery. The thesis originated out of a partnership with Cornwall Council and Britain’s Leading Edge (BLE) (an alliance of upper-tier local authorities in rural-peripheral regions), with the findings feeding into the strategic policy goals and activity of the network.
Semi-structured interviews were the primary method of data collection. The research involved interviewing representatives from central and local government, business and third sector organisations working within nature recovery in the rural-periphery, across BLE regions. The purpose of the interviews was to explore a range of viewpoints, encouraging the participants to share rich descriptions, experiences, and examples of working in the sector. The questions probed for unexplored angles, success stories, ambitions, failures and professional concerns regarding regional development and nature recovery.
The research sought to answer three major questions:
1: What are the key dynamics influencing regional development through investing in nature recovery in the rural-periphery?
The thesis identified significant and underexplored regional development dynamics that continue to influence the implementation of effective regional planning across the rural-periphery. The findings highlighted the importance of developing more nuanced narratives that promote the economic diversity, inherent strengths and institutional capacity of these areas. The findings also outlined emerging opportunities for economic development through new jobs in nature recovery, expanded local businesses, and the retention of a skilled workforce in areas often characterised by the outward migration of young people. Other important ideas concerned the need to strengthen local government and community organisations, as well as differences between national and local policy actors.
2: How effective is current financing for nature recovery? How do current finance models impact new regional development thinking around nature recovery in the rural-periphery?
The findings deepened our understanding of the financial frameworks used to invest in nature recovery, particularly the concept of natural capital. The thesis explored the way in which ideas about natural capital were being deployed and the need to build inclusive narratives that promote investment that is sympathetic to the values of people living and working in the rural-periphery. The findings also contributed to understanding the models of public and private finance aimed at nature recovery. In particular, the thesis explored the implications of private sector investment schemes aimed at nature recovery, and the importance of local engagement and place-based leadership moving forward.
3: What does regional path development through nature recovery look like for rural-peripheral areas?
The research highlighted the place-specific factors, institutional capacities and values associated with life in the rural-periphery in the context of nature recovery. These findings help to underpin new ideas about regional development for the rural-periphery. Crucially, this involves thinking about alternative ways for the rural-periphery to develop, putting nature at the heart of local economies
Contribution of gut microbiota to infection progression in Lepidoptera
No full textThe main objective of this thesis was to explore tripartite interactions between diet, gut microbiota, and pathogen infection and their impact on host health. These factors can independently or jointly affect insect health, which is important for mass rearing and for biocontrol at farm level. The gut microbiota of caterpillar is naturally low in diversity, but changes with diet, environment, and pathogen infection. We examined how wheatgerm and alfalfa artificial diets affect the growth and survival of Spodoptera exigua, and if this is achieved through gut microbiota modulation. We showed alfalfa diet, which was richer in fiber than the wheat germ diet, promoted growth and changed the metabolically active gut microbiota by promoting the growth of Rhodococcus. Additionally, we tested how the native gut microbiota and Enterococcus mundtii affects survival, gut microbiota composition and immunity of S. exigua during baculovirus infection. We found that a native gut microbiota promotes baculovirus infection while antibiotic treatment increases virus resistance. Resistance is achieved through upregulation of gloverin and the peptidoglycan receptor protein. Finally, as host-microbe symbiotic interactions can shift from mutualistic to parasitic, we asked how symbiont dose and diversity determines the nature of this interaction in Plutella xylostella. Our findings demonstrate parasitism decreases linearly with dose and host transcriptional response indicates a tradeoff between immunity and nutrient metabolism and uptake. Altogether, these insights shed light on the dynamics of host-microbe interactions and are crucial for advancing strategies in insect health
Threading light through dynamic complex media (dataset)
No full textThis is the dataset used for the Mididoddi et al. (2025) article "Threading light through dynamic complex media"
Integration of single‐cell and bulk RNA‐sequencing data reveals the prognostic potential of epithelial gene markers for prostate cancer
No full textPrognostic transcriptomic signatures for prostate cancer (PCa) often overlook the cellular origin of expression changes, an important consideration given the heterogeneity of the disorder. Current clinicopathological factors inadequately predict biochemical recurrence, a critical indicator guiding post-treatment strategies following radical prostatectomy. To address this, we conducted a meta-analysis of four largescale PCa datasets to identify consistent up-regulation of 33 previously reported PCaassociated genes in prostate tumours. By analysing single-cell RNA-seq data, we found these genes predominantly as markers in epithelial cells. Subsequently, we applied 97 advanced machine learning algorithms across five PCa cohorts and developed an 11-gene epithelial expression signature. This signature robustly predicted biochemical recurrence-free survival (BCRFS) and stratified patients into distinct risk categories, with high-risk patients showing worse survival and altered immune cell populations. The signature outperformed traditional clinical parameters in larger cohorts and was overall superior to published PCa signatures for BCRFS. By analysing peripheral blood data, four of our signature genes showed potential as biomarkers for radiation response in localised patients and effectively stratified castration-resistant patients for overall survival. In conclusion, this study developed a novel epithelial marker gene-based signature that enhanced BCRFS prediction and enabled effective risk stratification compared to existing clinical and gene expression derived prognostic tools. Furthermore, a set of genes from the signature demonstrated potential utility in peripheral blood, a tissue amenable to minimally invasive sampling in a primary care setting, offering significant prognostic value for PCa patients without requiring a tumour biopsy
Assessing the reporting quality of published qualitative evidence syntheses in the Cochrane Library
No full textBackground
Over ten years since the first qualitative evidence synthesis (QES) was published in the Cochrane Library, QES and mixed-methods reviews (MMR) with a qualitative component have become increasingly common and influential in healthcare research and policy development. The quality of such reviews and the completeness with which they are reported is therefore of paramount importance.
Aim
This review aimed to assess the reporting quality of published QESs and MMRs with a qualitative component in the Cochrane Library.
Methods
All published QESs and MMRs were identified from the Cochrane Library. A bespoke framework developed by key international experts based on the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC), Enhancing Transparency in Reporting the Synthesis of Qualitative Research (ENTREQ) and meta-ethnography reporting guidance (eMERGe) was used to code the quality of reporting of QESs and MMRs.
Results
Thirty-one reviews were identified, including 11 MMRs. The reporting quality of the QESs and MMRs published by Cochrane varied considerably. Based on the criteria within our framework, just over a quarter (8, 26%) were considered to meet satisfactory reporting standards, 10 (32%) could have provided clearer or more detailed descriptions in their reporting, just over a quarter (8, 26%) provided poor quality or insufficient descriptions and five (16%) omitted descriptions relevant to our framework.
Conclusion
This assessment offers important insights into the reporting practices prevalent in these review types. Methodology and reporting have changed considerably over time. Earlier QES have not necessarily omitted important reporting components, but rather our understanding of what should be completed and reported has grown considerably. The variability in reporting quality within QESs and MMRs underscores the need to develop Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) specifically for QES.
Keywords: qualitative evidence synthesis, reporting quality, mixed-methods reviews, quality assessmen
Widening inclusion: A discrete choice experiment of job preferences of disabled people
No full textPeople with disabilities face barriers to employment compared to people without disabilities, including the way in which employment opportunities are structured. The COVID-19 pandemic has opened up new ways of working (e.g. working from home) which have been trialled in a number of different locations and these have the potential to widen employment opportunities for people with disabilities. It is therefore important to explore the extent to which job preferences differ between people with disabilities and people without disabilities, in particular for aspects such as teleworking. In total, 253 participants (62 male and 191 female) took part in a Discrete Choice Experiment that investigates participants’ preferences for various job aspects. These include discretionary medical leave, flexible scheduling, working from home and the availability of part-time jobs. People with disabilities significantly prefer flexible scheduling and the availability of part-time jobs compared to people without disabilities. The results of a latent class analysis suggest it is older women with disabilities in particular who most value increased flexible job design. An analysis of lexicographic preferences suggests it is people who are most constrained by ‘traditional’ working conditions who benefit the most from increased flexibility e.g. people who require teleworking or flexible scheduling. This suggests that wider adoption of these attributes by employers has the potential to go some way toward addressing the persistent disability employment gaps and related health inequalities observed in many countries around the world
Black Motherhood as a Site of Power: Morrison’s Exploration of Maternal Violence in Beloved, Sula and God Help the Child within the History of Black Movements in the United States
No full textThis study examines Toni Morrison’s exploration of the notion of Black motherhood as a site of power and resistance, focusing on the evolution of maternal violence in her narratives: Beloved, Sula and God Help the Child. By aligning these narratives with critical periods in African American history – the American Civil War, the civil rights movement and the contemporary Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement – this thesis investigates how maternal violence in these narratives serves as a powerful force, challenging social norms and reflecting enduring struggles in Black communities. In Morrison’s earlier narratives, Beloved and Sula, maternal violence is interpreted as a manifestation of protective love within an oppressive culture, reflecting maternal power. However, in Morrison’s last work, God Help the Child, there is a shift and maternal violence is interpreted as a manifestation of maternal weakness and absence. By investigating these themes, this thesis aims to shed light on the complexities and subversive dimensions of Black motherhood, revealing the intersections between maternal violence, historical context and the legacy of Black power and resistance. It considers the role of Black motherhood in resisting oppression, offering valuable insights for contemporary debates concerning race and social justice
Is the DST a coherent response to taxing digital services under international obligations and norms? Comparative analysis of DSTs enacted in the United Kingdom and Türkiye
No full textTaxation of the digital economy has long been on the international tax agenda; the delay in the OECD-led multilateral solution on how to allocate income from digital business models motivated countries to take their own unilateral measures to tax revenue from digital services. According to existing international tax rules, digital services supplied in the market cannot be subject to tax in market jurisdictions due to a lack of nexus. This thesis starts from the question of whether users and consumers in the market create a legitimate nexus to allow a tax on the revenue of non-resident digital service suppliers. The Digital Service Tax (DST) is designed with the generic features of being an interim and unilateral tax on revenue from certain types of digital services. It is argued that these features of the DST led to complexity and uncertainty in the current international tax regime, in addition to being obstacles to long-term multilateral solutions. By placing principles of international taxation, which are discussed within the framework of current profit allocation rules, this thesis assesses the adherence of DSTs to commonly accepted tax principles beyond political concerns. The enactment of DSTs is also challenged in terms of international tax and trade norms and obligations. Common criticisms of DSTs concern their discriminatory nature and their adverse impact on businesses, due to the policy on which this tax is based. However, in the assessment of DSTs in terms of non-discrimination provisions of bilateral tax treaties and WTO GATS, it is concluded that DSTs are compatible with non-discriminatory provisions of bilateral tax treaties. Conversely, it is possible to challenge DSTs under the National Treatment provision of WTO GATs as being discriminatory.
The main contribution of this thesis is a comparative analysis between the DSTs of the United Kingdom and Türkiye, aiming to understand the extent to which legal and political differences between countries have influenced the development of national tax proposals and their respective DST design. In both countries, this tax measure is called a “Digital Service Tax”; however, the implementations of these measures show differences concerning the legal constraints, political motivation, and design of DSTs within the framework of domestic laws. In order to achieve the policy objectives of DSTs in both countries, it is essential to optimise their respective DSTs.
This study concludes that DST is an example of the primacy of national interest over international cooperation, thereby undermining the international solidarity necessary for reaching a multilateral solution to the taxation of the digital economy. This thesis contributes to the ongoing discussion of taxing the digital economy by providing an impartial examination of the extent to which the same tax policies and frameworks differ in their implementation across domestic laws, in particular offering a cautionary tale concerning the adoption of similar unilateral tax measures into domestic law