Atmósfera (Journal)
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Characteristics of particulate matter collected at an urban background site and a roadside site in Birmingham, United Kingdom
Get PDFThis study was conducted to investigate the compositional characteristics of particulate matter (PM) collected both at an urban background site (Elms Road observational site, EROS) and a roadside site (Bristol Road observational site, BROS). PM samples were collected at the receptor sites between March 28 and April 11, 2012. Observed parameters included water-soluble ions (Cl–, NO–3, SO42–, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+) and trace metals (V, Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Zn, Cu, Sb, Ba, Pb). Results showed higher concentrations of NO–3, NH4+, Al and Fe at BROS than EROS regarding PM2.5; and Cl–, NO–3, Na+, K+ and Fe regarding PM2.5-10, indicating roadside increments. The ionic and metal components of PM2.5 at EROS constituted 44 and 7% of the total measured PM mass, respectively. The proportions of these species were 46 and 8% at BROS. For PM2.5-10, water-soluble ions and trace metal components represented 42 and 12% at EROS, and 56 and 11% at BROS
Implementation of the Unified Post Processor (UPP) and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) for WRF-chem evaluation performance
Get PDFThis study focuses on a detailed description of several modifications made in both the Unified Post-Processor (UPP) and the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) release packages, which are necessary in order to incorporate relevant chemical species and meteorological parameters into the verification process. The changes made in UPP and MET are illustrated with a high ozone concentration episode, comparing the Weather Research and Forecasting-chemistry (WRF-chem) simulations against observational data from the Red Automática de Monitoreo Atmosférico (Automatic Atmospheric Monitoring Network) during a weekend in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. National Emission Inventory (2006) formatted data was supplied to the WRF-chem model. Examples of statistical results and plots contemplating the new chemical species added to the verification process are given, with the aim to illustrate the kind of verification measurements and plots that MET could provide now. Finally, The modifications made over different files in UPP and MET packages could be of particular interest for users and developers of the WRF-chem model concerned about the forecast of the analysis episodes related with poor urban air quality
Economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions: An analysis of Latin America and the Caribbean
Get PDF This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per-capita and economic growth in a panel of 20 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1971-2011. This empirical relationship, known in the economic literature as the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, suggests that the relationship between these variables, in the long run, follows an inverse U-shape, that is, from a certain level of per-capita income, an increased economic growth would be accompanied by improvements in environmental quality. Although this hypothesis has been studied since the 1990s, its empirical validity has recently been questioned on the basis of, among other things, the lack of diagnosis of the stationarity properties of the variables, and in a panel data context, the presence of cross-sectional dependence. Taking into account both criticisms, we use recent unit root tests and cointegration techniques that are robust to the presence of cross-sectional dependence. We find contradictory results depending on the assumption of cross-dependence. Under the assumption of cross-independence, the existence of an EKC with a realistic turning point is confirmed. However, this assumption is subsequently rejected, and because of the presence of cross-dependence in the panel, a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables cannot be established, and we reject the existence of an EKC
Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation
Get PDFLimiting global warming to prevent dangerous climate change requires drastically reducing global greenhouse gases emissions and a transformation towards a low-carbon society. Existing energy- and climate-economic modeling approaches that are informing policy and decision makers in shaping the future net-zero emissions society are increasingly seen with skepticism regarding their ability to forecast the long-term evolution of highly complex, nonlinear social-ecological systems. We present a structured review of state-of-the-art modeling approaches, focusing on their ability and limitations to develop and assess pathways towards a low-carbon society. We find that existing methodological approaches have some fundamental deficiencies that limit their potential to understand the subtleties of long-term low-carbon transformation processes. We suggest that a useful methodological framework has to move beyond current state of the art techniques and has to simultaneously fulfill the following requirements: (1) representation of an inherent dynamic analysis, describing and investigating explicitly the path between different states of system variables, (2) specification of details in the energy cascade, in particular the central role of functionalities and services that are provided by the interaction of energy flows and corresponding stock variables, (3) reliance on a clear distinction between structures of the sociotechnical energy system and socioeconomic mechanisms to develop it and (4) ability to evaluate pathways along societal criteria. To that end we propose the development of a versatile multi-purpose integrated modeling framework, building on the specific strengths of the various modeling approaches available while at the same time omitting their weaknesses. This paper identifies respective strengths and weaknesses to guide such development.
Mapping recession risk for cultural heritage stone in Mexico City due to dry and wet deposition of urban air pollutants
Get PDFAir pollution is a threat to cultural heritage because it accelerates the natural deterioration of monuments, palaces, churches, and archaeological ruins, which have an irreplaceable value. In the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), there are 19 968 buildings registered as archaeological, historic, or artistic monuments. Some are built with calcareous rocks (limestone and marble) but many of them are made with andesite, tezontle and tuff stone. This paper reports for the first time the spatial distribution of the potential risk of deterioration on calcareous rocks in terms of surface recession with regard to Mexican cultural heritage in the MCMA for the base year 2007. The risk estimate was performed using Lipfert’s damage function, only applicable to carbonate stones of medium and low porosity. These include mainly medium/high density limestone and marble. Carrara white marble has a density of 2.69 g cm–3 and a porosity of 0.37%, and limestone has a density of 2.2-2.6 g cm–3 and a porosity of 5-20%. For high porosity (low density) limestone the function would be applicable with a potential under-estimation. In this function, annual recession rate is a function of annual averages of precipitation, pH, and dry deposition of SO2 and HNO3. Data from several meteorological monitoring networks, the MCMA air quality and acid deposition monitoring networks, and a 3D air quality model (MCCM) were interpolated in a GIS in order to obtain map layers for these variables. These overlaid maps were used to apply the Lipfert functions at the specific coordinates of a small sample of relevant historic or artistic monuments. The complexity of climate gradients, wind patterns, and emissions distribution within the Mexico Megacity leads to gradients as large as 50% in estimated recession rates using the Lipfert function at nearby sites made of the same type of building materials. The Comisión Ambiental de la Megalópolis (Environmental Commission of the Megacity) divides the MCMA into five sectors. Differences in recession rates between them were, in 1990, as large as those between estimated values for Oviedo, Paris, and Prague in Europe for the period 1980-2000. Recession rates decreased by about 50% from 1990 to 2007, the base year for this report, due to the success of air pollution control actions focused on the protection of public health. Nevertheless, strong recession gradients are still expected for carbonate stone within the MCMA. The recession values reported in this work must be taken as conservative estimates due to the not yet optimal performance of 3D air quality models in urban meteorology and the high degree of uncertainty in modeling emissions inventories. Most notable is the SO2 emissions inventory. These maps call for a program of experimental determination of recession rates for building materials that comprise a very large part of Mexico’s unique cultural heritage. These maps should also be added to the critical level maps obtained for human exposure, crops, and ecosystems in order to properly estimate the actual cost of air pollution in the MCMA and the area under its influence
Penetration of marine aerosol in a tropical coastal city: Havana
Get PDFBuilding structures constitute obstacles for the entrance and distribution of marine aerosol in the atmosphere of Havana City (tropical coastal climate). Due to the shielding effect caused by building structures, a considerable decrease in chloride deposition is determined at a short distance from the sea. Heavier and larger-sized chloride aerosol particles can settle down in the vicinity of breaking waves. The annual average wind speed showed significant influence in increasing chloride deposition at the exposure site close to the sea, where the effect of building structures is negligible and the predicted levels of corrosivity of the atmosphere are high, very high and extreme. Air temperature was the main climatic factor influencing chloride deposition (when temperature decreases, chloride deposition increases). Penetration of marine aerosol is eight times lower in Havana City with respect to other sites without obstacles. Airborne salinity distribution inside the city is different than outside the city
Ozone climatology and its variability from ground based and satellite observations over Irene, South Africa (25.5º S; 28.1º E) – Part 2: Total column ozone variations
Get PDFIn this research, the climatological characteristics of total column ozone (ToZ) over Irene, South Africa (25.5º S, 28.1º E), are studied using both ground-based and satellite observations. Satellite data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) from November 1978 to May 1993; the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-1 (GOME-1) from August 1995 to June 2003; the Earth Probe Total Ozone Monitoring Spectrometer (EP-TOMS) from January 1997 to December 2005; the Microwave Limb Sounder from October 2004 to April 2013; the Ozone Monitoring Interferometer (OMI) from October 2004 to December 2013; the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) from January 2007 to December 2013; and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) from June 2008 to December 2011, were used in this study together with ground-based measurement from a Dobson instrument (August 1989 to December 2011). The seven satellite and ground-based instruments used for this study were selected as they provide long term ozone monitoring data. Satellite observations were collected when they overpass Irene and showed that ToZ replicated the expected behavior of spring maximum and autumn minimum. When compared with other satellite data sets, TOMS ToZ data displayed values approximately 8 DU higher overall but showed good general agreement with measurements from the ground-based Dobson instrument. The OMI instrument had the best agreement with the Dobson instrument as the measurements are within 5 DU for all seasons. The result of trend trend analysis of ozone over Irene shows a significant decrease of ~8 DU in total ozone from 1978 to 1993 with a gradual recovery and increase of ~2 DU in total ozone from 1995 to 2005 as measured by both GOME-1 and EPTOMS. An increase of approximately 7-9 DU is observed in measurements from OMI and IASI thereby illustrating the gradual recovery of the ozone layer. EPTOMS also showed good agreement with the Dobson instrument. GOME-1 and GOME-2 reveal underestimation of ozone while IASI overestimated ozone for the first half of the year. Between 1995 and 2005, both EPTOMS and GOME-1 data showed a gradual increase in column ozone of approximately 2 DU which has increased to approximately 7 DU in the last decade as measured by OMI, GOME-2 and IASI satellites. The result obtained showed a very strong correlation (~97%) between the variation in OMI-Dobson and GOME-2-Dobson and (~85%) between the variation in EPTOMS-Dobson and GOME-1-Dobson
Assessing the ability of three global reanalysis products to reproduce South American monsoon precipitation
Get PDFThe South American monsoon system (SAMS) refers to the strong seasonal variability in precipitation observed over South America, with high precipitation amounts during the summer while winter is the driest season. The aim of this work is to understand how different global reanalysis precipitation datasets (NCEP-2, ERA-Interim and CFSR-1) represent rainfall patterns and intensity associated with SAMS in comparison to gauge-based analysis (CPC). The results show that reanalysis products have some difficulties in simulating both spatial distribution and intensity of the observed precipitation. However, ERA-Interim seems to better correlate with the observed variability in precipitation during the austral warm season. The intensity and positioning of the 850-hPa moisture fluxes and the associated divergence patterns might explain differences found in precipitation from the three global reanalysis products in the SAMS core region
LIDAR ground-based velocity track display analyses and surface observations of a vortex shedding event observed at the Hong Kong International Airport on April 11, 2011
Get PDFVortex shedding occurs downstream of Lantau Island over the Hong Kong International Airport and can be hazardous to aircraft operating from that airport. An in-depth analysis of a vortex shedding structure is conducted using surface observations and Ground-Based Velocity Track Display (GBVTD) analysis of the Doppler Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data. This in-depth examination of the surface data indicates that brief wind anomalies were observed contemporaneously with the passage of the vortices. Winds simulated using an idealized vortex model constructed using LIDAR-estimated properties of each vortex fit reasonably well with the weather buoy wind and pressure observations. GBVTD retrievals indicate radial convergence and upward motion at most times throughout the lifecycle of the vortices. This paper aims to document the three-dimensional structure of such vortices shedded from the mountains, which may be useful for aviation safety involving wind shear detection, avoidance and recovery at airports with similar terrain features nearby
Economic evaluation of climate risk adaptation strategies: Cost-benefit analysis of flood protection in Tabasco, Mexico
Get PDFEconomic losses as a result of natural hazards have been rising over the past few decades due to socio-economic development and perhaps climate change. This upwards trend is projected to continue, highlighting the need for adequate adaptation strategies. This raises the question of how to determine which adaptation strategies are preferred to cope with uncertain climate change impacts. This study shows how a multi-disciplinary cascade of hazard modelling, risk modelling, and a cost-benefit analysis can be applied to provide a first indicator of economically efficient adaptation strategies. We apply this approach to an analysis of flood risk and the desirability of flood protection in the state of Tabasco in Mexico, which faces severe flooding on an almost yearly basis. The results show that expected annual damage caused by coastal flooding is expected to increase from 0.53 billion USD today up to 4.12 billion USD in 2080 due to socio-economic development and climate change. For river floods, expected annual damages are estimated to increase from 1.79 billion USD up to 10.6 billion USD in 2080 if no adaptation measures are taken. Based on the estimated risk and cost-benefit analysis of installing flood protection infrastructure, we determined the economically optimal protection standards for both river and coastal floods as at least 100 years, if we take into account climate change. Our main conclusions are robust to key uncertainties about climate change impacts on flood risks, indirect damage caused by floods, the width of the protected floodplains, and the adopted social discount rate. We discuss how our multi-disciplinary approach can assist policy-makers in decisions about flood risk management, and how future research can extend our method to more refined local analyses which are needed to guide local adaptation planning.