CBN Digital Commons (Central Bank of Nigeria)
Not a member yet
1580 research outputs found
Sort by
Simple Sequential Procedure for Modeling of Item Non-Response in Econometric Analysis: Application to CV Survey Data
No full textItem non-response occurs when respondents fail to provide answers to some or all of the questions posed during survey interviews. The standard procedure is to exclude such responses from the econometric analysis. This may be appropriate if the sample included does not differ significantly from those excluded in the analysis. If this is not the case, the econometric analyst faces a sample selection bias problem. The aim of this paper is to provide further evidence using a simple sequential procedure to deal with the problem when using non-randomly selected samples in social science research. The procedure entails different levels of estimation and diagnostic with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Heckman’s 2-step and Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) estimators. In the application context, we found the FIML estimator to be more efficient in dealing with sample selection bias than the Heckman’s 2-step approach
Still on the equilibrium real exchange rate of the naira: a re-examination
No full textThis study estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate for Nigeria using the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) approach and the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Role (BEER) model as well as, determined the extent, of Naira exchange rate misalignment over the period l970 q1 to 2013 q4. Evidence of three major episodes of over/undervaluation of the nominal exchange rate using the PPP were provided. The WER model results established the existence of a long-run interaction between the real exchange rate (RER) and the fundamental variables. ln particular, the behaviour of the RER is determined by the degree of openness, net foreign asset, real interest rate differential and government spending. Furthermore, the result suggest that 4.9 per cent of the short-run shocks are obviated each quarter
Is the Naira-US Dollar real exchange rate misaligned?
No full textPolicy makers are generally interested in knowing the degree of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment because of its connection to currency crises and other external sector imbalances. In Nigeria, the Naira-US Dollar RER appreciated by 81.3 per cent between 2000 and 2008 and depreciated afterwards by 10.10 per cent to close at an average of N 150.72 in 2009, due to the impacts of the global financial crisis. The main thesis of this study is: Are the movements in Naira RER during QI :2000 to 02:2011 in line with the economic fundamentals or not? Based on the theory of cointegration and error correction models as well as calibrated values of relevant explanatory variables, the study obtained estimates of sustainable Naira equilibrium RER and computed the corresponding misalignment levels in a time series perspective. It was confirmed that the RER appreciation of 2002-2008 and depreciation of 2009 were consistent with the long run equilibrium trend. It was also found that the RER oscillated quite closely around its equilibrium path during the study period as it was misaligned by 0.29 per cent. Lastly, the study found a slight RER misalignment (0.03 per cent) during the RDAS/WDAS regimes and thus recommends that the current exchange rate policy in the country be retained while ensuring that official interventions in the foreign exchange market are guided by movements in relevant macroeconomic fundamentals
Fiscal Federalism in Nigeria: A Cluster Analysis of Revenue Allocation to States and Local Government Areas, 1999 – 2008
No full textExisting literature on revenue allocation in Nigeria shows more concern for merits and demerits of sharing principles and /or formulae. Several alternatives have been proposed and will continue to be developed to address the unending agitations from beneficiaries. Contrary however, this paper analyzes two items of revenue (statutory and VAT) shared among the states including FCT and all the Local Government Areas (LGAs) between May 1999 and December 2008. The net statutory allocation after deductions was also analyzed. Using Cluster analysis to evaluate revenue allocation in Nigeria, States and LGAs exhibiting similarity in revenue received were grouped and their common features highlighted. The result of this exercise may be a pointer to resolving the issue of viability when combined with other statistics
Enhancing Data Generation for National Development in Nigeria: Institutional and Structural Issues1
No full textIn this presentation, attention is focused on data generation for the purposes of reasoning, discussing and calculating the status, process and prospects of economic development. Economic development has also been defined in various ways. Again for the present purposes, economic development will be conceived as the process of economic growth and structural transformation (Ajakaiye, 2002). Clearly, data, as a gathered body of facts about the economy, is a basic requirement in the process of economic growth and transformation. Foremost, facts about the economy are necessary in order to appreciate the current state of the economy in terms of growth and structural change. It is also required to understand the functioning of the economic system and how the growth and structural changes are occurring. On the basis of the knowledge of state and functioning of the economic system, plausible, realistic and attainable targets of growth and structural change can be set for the economy over a specified period of time, be it short (annual or quarterly or monthly), medium (typically 5 years) and long term (usually 10 years and beyond)
On the Development of Residential Property Price Indices for Nigeria
No full textThis work focuses on the development of house price indices for Nigeria, and the estimates of the Nigerian Residential Property Price Indices on housing characteristics are presented. Four main methods of index construction were considered, these are hedonic regression, repeat-sales, stratification and central price tendency methods. It was discovered that econometric methods like hedonic and repeat sales were constraints in constructing residential property price indices for Nigeria by the nature of the data available. Hence, the central price tendency and the sale-based stratification methods which are internationally used measures were applied to the available zonal-level dataset from a survey of selected urban cities from the six geopolitical zones of the country. While the central price tendency was used to track changes in the price of the median residential dwelling sold from one period to another and the zonal shares of residential property prices, the sale-based approach was used to estimate the trends in the year-on-year growth rate of residential property price indices and the zone-wise price indices. On the whole, the results show a reflection of changes in the composition of residential dwellings sold in Nigeria from 2010 to 2012. The need for housing policy that will empower a comprehensive documentation of all attributes of price determinants for evaluation of residential property in Nigeria was emphasized
Welcome Address by Chizoba Mojekwu
No full textThe welcome address delivered at the 2012 CBN Executive Seminar jointly organized by the Research and Human Resources Departments. This Seminar is carried out annually in pursuant to one of our core values as a learning organisation. The theme of the Seminar; “Macro-prudential Framework and Financial System Stability in Nigeria” was carefully selected to keep you abreast of the new approach to a risk-based supervision of the banking system
Ratings game : a review
No full textPost-2008 global financial crisis placed the search light on the activities of global rating agencies, especially in the United States and Europe. The article discussed the regulatory role played by private credit rating agencies and their impact on the financial system. The author attempts to draw attention to the conflict of interests between the objectives of private credit agencies and the regulatory role they play. A synopsis of the article is presented in section II below, while comments and lessons for Nigeria are discussed in section III
Exchange market pressure in Nigeria and the reaction of the monetary authority: an empirical investigation
No full text,The paper used monetary model approach to exchange market pressure developed by Girton and Roper (1977) to construct Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index for Nigeria and the reaction of the monetary authority in dampening the pressure during managed floating regime spanning 1999 Q I through 20 12Q4. Empirical findings from the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method suggested that interest rate differential and external reserves were important variables in managing EMP, while domestic credit related inversely with EMP. The policy implication of this is that foreign reserves remained the most important determinant of EMP in Nigeria. Essentially, contractionary monetary policy, through increase in short -term interest rate, can be used to ease exchange market pressure
The monetary model of exchange rate determination: the case of Nigeria
No full textThe monetary model of exchange role proposes a strong relationship between exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. The model infers that the price of a country’s currency is determined by the interaction of demand and supply of money, hence the price level of two partner countries should not differ if expressed in the same currency. This study attempted to confirm this relationship for Nigeria using a bounds testing approach to cointegration. The result reveals that money supply differential is the most influential, followed by relative income and inflation variance. This lends support to the monetary model of exchange rate determination in Nigeria. The study, therefore, suggest that concerted efforts should be made to increase the country’s level of production, stabilise money supply and control inflationary spiral, so as to stabilise the value of the Naira vis-à -vis the US dollar