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Transforming the Agricultural Value Chain for Food Security in Nigeria: Any Role for Public-Private Partnership?
No full textIn the food sector, public-private-partnership (PPP) has the potential, not only to reduce the risk that farmers face, but also to improve the agricultural business environment. As the agricultural and rural sectors are the habitat of the poor, the best value chain strategy should be one that embodies poverty reduction, which can be achieved by increasing the incomes of smallholder farmers and rural dwellers
Averting the Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call to Immediate and Near-term Policy Action
No full textThis paper seeks to advise on how to tackle the skyrocketing prices of food being experienced today all over the nation and to get the Government to take urgent and proactive actions to avert the pain being experienced by the entire Nigerian people
Contemporary Issues in Nigeria\u27s External Debt and Implications for National Sovereignty
No full textThe imperative of public borrowing to finance development, combat natural or artificial disasters, and for other reasons is incontrovertible. The diverse traumatic experience of debt-victim nations: Spain, Mexico, Egypt, Venezuela, et cetera, which narrowly escaped total loss of national sovereignty to foreign lenders, due to debt-induced bankruptcy, have been xr-ayed by literature: Magaji (2000) and Bature (2015), among others. The objectives of this paper are to examine the situation of Nigeria, vis-à-vis the nations which travelled the path of Nigeria\u27s current adventure; and to proffer policy antidotes for averting the highly probable cataclysm which unsustainable external debt might precipitate, particularly against the backdrop of prevailing public apprehension. Adopting expository analytical methodology, the paper concluded that external borrowing is necessary in highly inevitable circumstances, matched with debt management profundity, in order to avert an experience similar to aforementioned victim-countries. Accordingly, it was recommended that Nigeria should strengthen the existing fiscal management capacity for enhanced internal revenue generation; while considering only reproductive borrowing for effective debt restrain
Oil price and foreign direct investment in Nigeria: new evidence from structural breaks and a nonlinear analysis
No full textThe study employed Nn-Linear and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method to analyse the link between oil price and foreign direct investment (FDI) using annual data from (1970 to 2018 Bai-Perman (2003) test revealed two structural break periods (1989 and 1995 showing a long-run relationship between oil price and FDI in Nigeria. The findings after NARDL estimation (short and long runs), showed that oil price, exchange rate and trade, negatively and insignificantly influenced FDI while GDP positively impacted on FDI, through insignificant too. The study concluded that though these variables slow down FDI efforts should be geared towards channeling oil funds to other sectors to encourage foreign investors
Effect of Public Debt on Private Investment in Nigeria: Evidence from an Asymmetric Dynamic Model
No full textThis study examines the effect of public debt on private investment in Nigeria. The linear and non-linear ARDL models are employed to analyse the series spanning the period 1981 to 2018. The estimation results show that an increase in total debt, external debt, and debt service payment adversely affects private investment, with the effects being symmetric. On the other hand, the effect of domestic debt on private investment is found to be asymmetric. Although a negative shock in domestic debt greatly improves private investment, a positive shock leads to a meagre positive effect on private investment. This finding indicates that although domestic debt reduction is more beneficial to private investment, domestic public debt accumulation does not negatively affect private investment in Nigeria. The study recommends curtailing excessive public borrowing and reducing the stock of public debt to improve private investment in Nigeria
Special Remarks
No full textThe theme of this year’s Seminar, Food Security in Nigeria: Options for Policy, is apt, timely and consistent with the current efforts of this administration and the Bank in finding sustainable solutions to the food security challenges confronting us as a nation. As we all know, food is a basic need of every man and key to socio-economic stability. The ability of a country to feed its people, and perhaps extend the surplus to other countries, is one of the key indicators of good standing in the comity of nations. The World Food Summit (1996), defined food security as a situation where all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and preferences, for an active and healthy lifestyle
Food Security, Economic Growth and Price Stability Nexus and Conceptual Issues
No full textA strong argument that encourages analysing food security and food price stability issues is importance to economic well-being. Nigeria is one of the most food insecure countries and highly affected by all three drivers. For one, the country is vulnerable to price instability and successively hit by environmental disasters, that impact people’s livelihoods. Furthermore, its economy is thriving, but around 48.0 per cent of its population lives below the poverty line (World Bank, 2020; World Poverty Clock, 2020). In addition to that, since 2009 northeastern Nigeria is struck by insurgency. Essentially, sustainability in economic growth is dependent on achievement of food security (Manap, & Ismail, 2019). Without a food security strategy, countries will bear a large portion cost. To sustain security, a nation must increase domestic production and minimise relying on food import. Relying highly on food import will cause food security problems with high levels of chronic malnutrition, limitation in human capital development, poverty problem, reduced labour productivity, reduction in life expectancy and decrease economic growth. The objective of this paper is to examine relationship between food security, economic growth and price stability with focus on their Conceptual issues and nexus
Averting the Looming Food Crisis: A Clarion Call to Immediate and Near-term Policy Action
No full textThis paper reviews food crisis and its causes in Nigeria. It takes the position that food crisis has been simmering in Nigeria for the past couple of years and identifies policy instability, poor policy implementation and declining household purchasing power, among others as the major causes of food crisis. It recommends strong policy support and implementation, automatic indexation of wages and pensions and other measures to curb food crisis in the country
Inflations and its uncertainty in Some ECOWAS member states: Transfer Entropy Approach
No full textThis study examines the information flow between inflation and inflation uncertainty (IU) and intrastate inflationary trend among some ECOWAS member states. IU is measured using GARCH models and stochastic volatility model (SV). Transfer entropy was adopted to quantify the extent of information flow. The result showed information flow exists from inflation to the GARCH measure of IU. On the reverse flow from inflation uncertainty to inflation, there is no information flow except for Burkina Faso and Gambia which have asymmetric bidirectional flow between inflation and IU. Adopting SV measure for IU, there are no support for causality from inflation to IU for all the member states except Burkina Faso and Cabo Verde. For the reverse flow, causality exists in all the member states. On the pairwise inflation trend of member states, inflation trends are interconnected and that shocks in one country may transmit to others except for Gambia, Cote d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso. Specifically, Guinea, Liberia and Nigeria inflation shocks have the greatest effect on other WAMZ members within the study period, whereas inflation trend in Benin, Niger and Cote d’Ivoire are the most influential among WAEMU states. In conclusion, inflation - IU relationship is sensitive to how IU is measured leading to mixed findings. This study recommends the need for price stability among the ECOWAS member states. Given the interdependence among some members of each bloc of ECOWAS, policy synchronization on price stability could enhance the overall objective of single digit inflation and reduce the welfare effect of inflation uncertainty
The Nigerian economy, monetary policy and Covid-19: an unholy trinity
No full textThis article presents the dynamics of an unholy trinity involving the interplay of economic forces in the thick of a crippling health crisis with monetary policy to the rescue through activation of relevant instruments. In response to the outbreak, the Monetary Policy Committee announced several policy measures which include granting of extension of loan moratorium on principal repayments, interest rate reduction on all intervention loan facilities from 9% to 5%, establishment of a N50bn targeted credit facility to household and MSMEs and regulatory forbearance to banks and credit support to the healthcare industry among others. it is worthy to state that monetary policy alone cannot solve the economic problems caused by COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, but the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) needs to work alongside other critical players beyond the financial sector and ensure pragmatic policies that strive towards diversication towards agriculture, strong protection for jobs through support to small and medium-sized enterprises, and enhancement of the existing support to the health sector among others