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Disconnected roads: how transport infrastructure falls short in southern Mexico
Full text linkEconomic geography, transport infrastructure, regional developmentThis paper studies the effectiveness of transport infrastructure in promoting development in lagging regions. Using detailed road and census data combined with a spatial general equilibrium model calibrated to Mexico, we show that infrastructure investments in poorer areas are more effective when they enhance connectivity to the national network and are paired with productivity improvements. Between 2004 and 2019, Mexico’s southern states received over one-fourth of all new paved roads but saw limited connectivity gains, as investments focused on low-speed, locally administered roads that primarily connected low-productivity municipalities within states. While the national road expansion raised national real income by 1.0% and welfare by 1.7%, the income elasticity with respect to new roads in the South was only half that of the North. To highlight the critical role of local economic conditions in shaping these returns to new transport infrastructure, we show that a counterfactual 2,200km highway in the South generates only one-third the welfare gains of an equivalent highway in the North—unless accompanied by a 5.5% productivity boost
Review of Undermining the States from within: the institutional legacies of civil war in Central America, by Rachel Schwartz
No full textEstado, guerra, conflict
Monetary shocks and inflation: global evidence from trilemma-based identification
Full text linkInterest rates, monetary experiments, trilemma, instrumental variables, local projections, tasa de interés, experimentos monetarios, variables instrumentales, proyecciones localesAfter decades of low and stable inflation, recent global events ─such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine ─triggered a resurgence in inflationary pressures, prompting central banks worldwide to tighten monetary policy. This paper examines whether monetary policy effectively curbs inflation by employing a trilemma-based indentification strategy on a panel dataset of 36 developing and 8 developed economies from 1990 to 2017. Using higher-frequency monthly data, we improve on traditional quarterly or annual approaches by more precisely capturing central bank responses. By applying our theory-driven, trilemma-based identification strategy to a sample of developing countries, we bring novel insights to existing literature. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks have significant but impermanent effects on inflation. A 100 basis point interest rate hike lowers the price level by 3.7% at its peak after six months, with effects fading within 18 months. Crucially, our results do not exhibit the “price puzzle,” reinforcing the credibility of our identification strategy. Aditonally, we find that monetary policy effects are state-dependent, with stronger disinflationary impacts during high-inflation periods and in economies with lower GDP per capita or higher commodity export dependence. These findings highlight the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission, underscoring the need for tailored policy responses across different economic contexts.Tras décadas de inflación baja y estable, eventos globales recientes ─como la pandemia de COVID-19 y la invasión rusa a Ucrania─ provocaron un resurgimiento de las presiones inflacionarias, llevando a los bancos centrales de todo el mundo a endurecer su política monetaria. Este artículo examina si la política monetaria logra efectivamente reducir la inflación, utilizando una estrategia de identificación basada en la trinidad imposible (trilemma) sobre un panel de datos de 36 economías en desarrollo y 8 desarrolladas entre 1990 y 2017. Usando datos mensuales de mayor frecuencia, mejoramos las aproximaciones tradicionales trimestrales o anuales al capturar con mayor precisión las respuestas de los bancos centrales. Al aplicar nuestra estrategia de identificación, fundamentada teóricamente y basada en el trilemma, a una muestra de países en desarrollo, aportamos nuevas perspectivas a la literatura existente. Nuestros hallazgos indican que los shocks de política monetaria tienen efectos significativos, pero no permanentes sobre la inflación. Un aumento de 100 puntos básicos en la tasa de interés reduce el nivel de precios en un 3.7% en su punto máximo tras seis meses, con efectos que se disipan en un plazo de 18 meses. Es crucial que nuestros resultados no presentan el “price puzzle”, lo que refuerza la credibilidad de nuestra estrategia de identificación. Además, encontramos que los efectos de la política monetaria dependen del estado de la economía, siendo más fuertes durante periodos de alta inflación y en economías con menor PIB per cápita o mayor dependencia de exportaciones de materias primas. Estos resultados resaltan la hterogeneidad en la transmisión de la política monetaria y la necesidad de respuestas de política adaptadas a distintos contextos económicos
Underinvestment in transit, and electoral accountability: a spatial approach to the metro
Full text linkOn May 3rd, 2021, a segment of Mexico City’s Metro Line 12 collapsed, killing 25 people and disrupting mobility for thousands. This disaster sparked public debate about political responsibility, infrastructure quality, and urban governance in Mexico. This tragedy, which has not been studied by others, led to the following question: What was the impact of the collapse of Metro Line 12 on electoral outcomes in Mexico City during the 2021 and 2024 elections? Previous literature on accountability shows that voters may punish incumbents after disasters, but often fail to assign blame accurately due to partisanship, poor information, or populist discourse. While “blind retrospection” and partisan filtering are well-documented, little empirical research has studied how infrastructure failures in urban transit affect multi-level electoral accountability. This case provides a rare opportunity to study electoral accountability in response to an infrastructure failure in a dense urban context under a populist regime. Using a spatial natural experiment framework, the study compares electoral sections near the collapse site with similar unaffected areas to estimate causal effects. The empirical strategy leverages detailed electoral and census data, modelling proportional changes in party support through simultaneous equations. The incumbent alliance experienced consistent and statistically significant losses across all elections, with vote share declines between 4.5% and 12.9% in affected areas. The backlash was strongest in local races, particularly mayoral contests, despite mayors lacking direct responsibility for the Metro system. Accountability was real but misdirected: voters punished local officials more than higher-level actors who held greater institutional responsibility. Early losses (2018–2021) favored the main opposition, while the third party gained more in the later period (2021–2024). These findings show that in urban democracies, service failures can drive political change—even in contexts of populist narrative control. The collapse of Metro Line 12 illustrates that neglecting public infrastructure carries a tangible political cost: despite efforts to deflect blame, voters responded with measurable electoral punishment, particularly at the local level. This underscores the need for clear attribution of responsibility and stronger accountability mechanisms to uphold democratic governance
Business cycles in Mexico: insights from a small open economy dsge model
No full textThis dissertation examines financial crises and Sudden Stops in Mexico through the lens of a small open-economy DSGE model that incorporates occasionally binding colateral constraints. Solved with global methods and calibrated to quarterly Mexican data, the model considers endowment shocks and joint interest rate–tradables shocks. A key feature of this model is its ability to generate multiple equilibria. Results show that interest rate and tradables shocks better match data moments—especially output persistence and RER dynamics—than endowment-only shocks. Crises are infrequent but severe, with equilibrium selection affecting their intensity and frequency. While the model captures key stylized facts, it overstates volatility. These findings highlight the role of financial frictions in EMEs and may offer a basis to inform and advance the discussion on macroprudential policy in Mexico
Policy learning in the implementation of containment measures by subnational governments during the COVID-19 health crisis
No full textEl tema central de esta tesina es analizar la manera en que los cuatro modos de aprendizaje de políticas afectaron la respuesta nacional para enfrentar la crisis sanitaria de COVID-19. Así, el objetivo principal consiste en identificar el grado en que el aprendizaje a través de la jerarquía, el aprendizaje epistémico, el aprendizaje mediante la negociación y el aprendizaje reflexivo fueron utilizados durante los primeros meses de la pandemia en los gobiernos subnacionales, y cómo estos influyeron en el número de medidas para contener la crisis. Para ello, esta investigación se basa en un modelo de regresión lineal múltiple para analizar la relación entre el número de medidas implementadas por los gobiernos subnacionales durante la pandemia (variable dependiente) y un conjunto de variables independientes que incluyen los cuatro modos de aprendizaje de políticas, así como factores de control asociadas al contexto institucional y sociodemográfico: número de adultos mayores y número de camas hospitalarias. En esta investigación se confirmó que el aprendizaje a través de la jerarquía y el aprendizaje epistémico tuvieron un efecto significativo y positivo en la adopción de medidas, lo que muestra que las reglas y rutinas institucionales, así como el conocimiento experto y especializado, fueron determinantes en un contexto de alta incertidumbre y emergencia. Por su parte, el aprendizaje reflexivo también mostró un efecto positivo, aunque menos contundente. Y en el caso del aprendizaje mediante la negociación no se obtuvieron resultados significativos. Un aporte relevante de esta investigación es el esfuerzo de desarrollar una estrategia empírica para analizar de manera cuantitativa los cuatro modos de aprendizaje de políticas en los 32 gobiernos subnacionales. Se espera que esta propuesta metodológica contribuya a la literatura sobre teoría organizacional, adaptación, y toma de decisiones en tiempos de alta incertidumbre y crisis.The central theme of this thesis is to analyze how the four modes of policy learning affected the national response to the COVID-19 health crisis. The main objective is to identify how learning in the shadow of hierarchy, epistemic learning, learning through bargaining, and reflexive learning were used during the first months of the pandemic in subnational governments, and how these influenced the number of measures implemented to contain the crisis. To this end, this research relies on a multiple linear regression model to examine the relationship between the number of measures implemented by subnational governments during the pandemic (dependent variable) and a set of independent variables that include the four modes of policy learning, as well as control factors associated with the institutional and sociodemographic context: number of older adults and number of hospital beds. This research confirmed that learning in the shadow of hierarchy and epistemic learning had a significant and positive effect on policy adoption, demonstrating that institutional rules and routines, as well as expert and specialized knowledge, were decisive in a context of high uncertainty and emergency. Reflexive learning also showed a positive effect, although less significant. In the case of learning through bargaining, no significant results were obtained. A relevant contribution of this research is the effort to develop an empirical strategy to quantitatively analyze the four modes of policy learning in the 32 subnational governments. This methodological proposal is expected to contribute to the literature on organizational theory, adaptation, and decision-making in times of high uncertainty and crisis
Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the maternal mortality ratio in Mexican municipalities
No full textThe COVID-19 pandemic intensified the vulnerability of women of reproductive age to maternal mortality. This research analyzes the impact of the pandemic on the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) at the municipal level in Mexico between 2018 and 2022. A panel data set was constructed, and a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) Difference-in-Differences model, as well as an event study model, were applied to evaluate the temporal evolution of the impact. The TWFE model results show that an increase of one positive COVID-19 case per 1,000 inhabitants is associated with an increase of 0.015 maternal deaths per 1,000 live births, an effect that was more severe during 2020. The event study model reveals that, in municipalities with high COVID-19 morbidity, the MMR increased on average by 0.052 per 1,000 live births compared to untreated municipalities. Although morbidity decreased in 2021, treated municipalities maintained an average excess of 0.020 maternal deaths. These findings demonstrate the differentiated impact of the pandemic and underscore the importance of strengthening obstetric care during health emergencies
Choosing democracy over party?: how civic education can mitigate the anti-democratic effects of partisan polarization
Full text linkCivic education, partisan polarization, democratization, online experiments, educación cívica, polarización partidista, democratización, experimentos en líneaHow can the negative effects of partisan polarization on democratic attitudes be mitigated? Can polarized individuals be persuaded to choose democracy over party, i.e., support a candidate from an opposing party who upholds democratic norms when their co-partisan candidate fails to do so? We tested the effect of an online civic education intervention conducted on over 41,000 individuals in 33 countries that war desgned to promote the choice for “democracy” by emphasizing the benefits of democratic versus autocratic regimes. The results are striking: exposure to civic education messages significantly dampens the negative effect of partisan polarizaton on anti-democratic co-partisan candidate choice. Civic education also has a small positive effect on polarization itself, with further exploration showing that this is the result of increased evaluiations of parties that uphold democratic norms and practices, resulting in greater differences between democratic parties.¿Cómo se puede mitigar los efectos negativos de la polarización partidista en las actitudes democráticas? ¿Se puede persuadir a los individuos polarizados para que elijan la democracia sobre el partido, es decir, que apoyen a un candidato de un partido opositor que defiende las normas democráticas cuando su candidato copartidario no lo hace? Probamos el efecto de una intervención de educación cívica en línea realizada con más de 41,000 individuos en 33 países, diseñada para promover la elección de la “democracia” enfatizando los beneficios de los regímenes democráticos frente a los autocráticos. Los resultados son sorprendentes: la exposición a mensajes de educación cívica reduce significativamente el efecto negativo de la polarización partidista en la elección de candidatos copartidarios antidemocráticos. La educación cívica también tiene un pequeño efecto positivo sobre la polarización en sí misma, con una exploración adicional que muestra que esto se debe a una mayor evaluación de los partidos que defienden normas y prácticas democráticas, lo que resulta en mayores diferencias entre los partidos democráticos
Implicaciones del control convencional sobre normas constitucionales en la legitimidad de la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos
Full text linkLa cuestión de si la Corte Interamericana de Derechos Humanos está facultada para ejercer control sobre una Constitución es un debate ya superado por la práctica de este tribunal regional. No obstante, conceder dicha facultad no implica que su justificación quede exenta de escrutinio, en particular frente a la preocupación democrática que surge cuando la autoridad de decisión se traslada de un órgano legislativo nacional a una corte regional o internacional. Este trabajo adopta una propuesta metodológica orientada a evaluar la legitimidad de esa decisión en función de su cumplimiento con el derecho a la justificación. En este sentido, se aparta tanto de posturas escépticas o nacionalistas respecto del derecho internacional, como de aquellas que desatienden los reclamos democráticos. Así, la evaluación que se desarrolla enfatiza el cumplimiento y la legitimidad de la decisión judicial internacional, siempre que esta reconozca a las personas sobre quienes ejerce su autoridad como seres que se justifican y que merecen una justificación
From fields to classrooms: the effect of poppy supply shortages on school enrolment in Mexico
Full text linkThis thesis examines how illicit market dynamics may influence educational outcomes in rural Mexico. Focusing on the opium poppy economy, it analyzes whether drug seizures and declining profitability following the rise of fentanyl in 2015 are associated with changes in school enrolment. Using municipal-level data, the study finds heterogeneous patterns: in more corporatized regions, enforcement shocks correlate with higher enrolment, while in marginalized areas, effects turn positive only after sustained market collapse. The analysis suggests a mechanism in which changing opportunity costs reshape household decisions about schooling. These findings point to the need for further research into how informal and illegal labor markets compete with human capital investment, particularly in contexts of poverty and limited state presence. By framing illicit agriculture as a structured labor market, this study contributes to a broader agenda on education, development, and child labor