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Review of he Moment of rupture: historical consciousness in interwar German thought, by Humberto Beck
No full textReseña, teoría política, teologí
De lo oneroso a lo eficiente: la experiencia burocrática de cineastas ante la implementación del programa público FOCINE en México
Get PDFPolítica cultural, cine mexicano, burocracia, experiencia burocrática, FOCINELa experiencia burocrática en el ámbito de la política cultural en México ha recibido escasa atención en la investigación académica. Este estudio analiza el Programa de Fomento al Cine Mexicano (FOCINE) desde su inicio en 2021 hasta 2024, con el objetivo de evaluar la experiencia burocrática de los cineastas frente a la implementación de este programa. La pregunta de investigación que dirige este trabajo es: ¿Cuál es la experiencia burocrática de los cineastas frente a la implementación de programas públicos para la industria cinematográfica, específicamente en el caso de FOCINE? La metodología empleada es un análisis exploratorio cualitativo basado en 10 entrevistas semiestructuradas. Los hallazgos indican que, en contraste con la literatura existente sobre cargas administrativas, la experiencia de los cineastas con FOCINE es mayormente positiva. Esto se debe a la acumulación de conocimiento y estrategias desarrolladas por los cineastas a través de su constante interacción con procesos administrativos de aplicación a convocatorias y fondos públicos. Adicionalmente, se identificaron desafíos en el proceso, como la necesidad de adaptar los ciclos de producción al año fiscal y el cumplimiento con documentos fiscales. Este estudio contribuye a llenar un vacío en la literatura sobre la experiencia burocrática en la implementación de políticas culturales, subrayando la importancia de considerar estas experiencias en el diseño de políticas públicas
Does education reduce criminal activities? An aggregated empirical approach in Chile
Get PDFHuman capital, crime, schooling, developing countries, spatial analysisSocial returns of education are all the benefits that accrue to society resulting from an increase in its citizens’ overall education level. This paper addresses the relationship between regional criminal activities and the educational level in a city. We hypothesize that, at the aggregate level, higher education is related to low levels of criminal activities. We focus on Chile as a case study and build an unbalanced panel data from 2006 to 2017 with an average of 308 municipalities. We find that high human capital deters regional criminal activities while low human capital does not
The effects of educated leaders on policy and politics: quasi-experimental evidence from Brazil
Get PDFPolitical economy, local elections, education, healthWe examine whether and how the educational background of political leaders matters for policy choices and outcomes. Using data on municipalities in Brazil from 2000–2008, we estimate the effects of electing a more educated leader in a regression-discontinuity design whereby policy inputs and outcomes in municipalities where a highly educated candidate barely won the election are compared with those of municipalities where a highly educated candidate barely lost. Our results indicate that highly educated mayors make different choices regarding the allocation of public funds and inputs in critical sectors when compared to non-highly educated mayors, yet they do not produce better indicators on a variety of measurable outcomes. Furthermore, our estimates suggest a negative impact of educated mayors on local economic growth and children’s health. We additionally document the existence of heterogeneity in the effects of highly educated leaders along political ideology and age of the candidate. Lastly, highly educated leaders are not more likely to be reelected, suggesting that they are not perceived as etter politicians
Spatial relationship between unemployment immigration and criminality in a developing city
Get PDFCrime, unemployment immigration, spatial econometricsThis article discusses the relationships between Unemployment, immigration, and crime. In recent years, Venezuelan social and economic instability has led to an exodus of Venezuelan citizens to Colombian cities. Cali, Colombia’s third most important city, is aware of this phenomenon, as it receives the Venezuelan immigrant population. In light of the few existing job opportunities in Cali, this influx has impacted violence and crime rates in the city. The international literature has shown correlations between economic activity, crime, and immigration, but the spatial interactions between these elements in the inner city have not been analyzed. This lack of study is unusual in a developing country like Colombia. Therefore, this study fills that gap by constructing crime indices and estimating spatial models using proximity to police stations. Our results show that there is a positive spatial relationship between the Unemployment of the immigrant population and the levels of crime in the City of Cali. Results also show that immigration as such as does not increase crime
Strategies for reducing organized crime recruitment in federal states: an analysis with game theory
No full textReclutamiento juvenil, crimen organizado, tasa de descuento, políticas públicas, teoría de juegosEsta investigación aborda el problema del reclutamiento de jóvenes por el crimen organizado en México, centrándose en los ocho estados con más homicidios de jóvenes entre 15 a 34 años, en el periodo 2010 y 2022. El argumento central es que la tasa de descuento temporal—la tendencia a valorar más las recompensas inmediatas sobre las futuras es el mecanismo clave que explica la vulnerabilidad de los jóvenes al reclutamiento criminal. Esta tasa de descuento está influenciada por seis variables críticas: la proporción de homicidios contra otros decesos en el estado, la tasa de homicidios juveniles, la presencia de fuerzas armadas, la esperanza de vida, el nivel educativo y los salarios promedio. El estudio demuestra que los estados con mayores tasas de homicidios, menor presencia de fuerzas de seguridad, menor esperanza de vida, niveles educativos más bajos y salarios reducidos tienden a generar tasas de descuento más elevadas entre los jóvenes, haciéndolos más susceptibles al reclutamiento. Esta investigación innova al introducir el sesgo hacia el presente como marco teórico explicativo, alejándose de los enfoques tradicionales que se centran solo en factores socioeconómicos o de seguridad. La tasa de descuento temporal proporciona un mecanismo teórico que conecta causalmente las condiciones estructurales con las decisiones individuales de los jóvenes frente al reclutamiento. A través de un análisis empírico exhaustivo y un modelado teórico basado en la teoría de juegos, la investigación examina las interacciones estratégicas entre jóvenes, familias, organizaciones criminales y el Estado. Los resultados revelan que las variables con una fuerte asociación o mayor peso explicativo son la tasa de homicidios juveniles y la proporción de homicidios totales, seguidas por el nivel educativo y la presencia de fuerzas armadas. La esperanza de vida y los salarios promedio también muestran asociaciones, aunque de menor magnitud. Los equilibrios identificados en los modelos de teoría de juegos son consistentes con los patrones observados en estados como Chihuahua y Guerrero, donde las altas tasas de homicidios coinciden con una mayor propensión de los jóvenes a valorar las ganancias inmediatas del crimen organizado sobre los beneficios a largo plazo de la educación y el empleo legal. El estudio no se limita al diagnóstico del problema, sino que avanza hacia la proposición de estrategias de intervención basadas en evidencia. Las propuestas están específicamente diseñadas para modificar las tasas de descuento de los jóvenes a través de intervenciones en las variables identificadas como más influyentes. Estas incluyen programas educativos y laborales focalizados, iniciativas de fortalecimiento familiar y comunitario, y políticas de seguridad que integran de manera innovadora la prevención con la aplicación efectiva de la ley. Esta investigación realiza una contribución significativa a la literatura existente sobre crimen organizado y desarrollo juvenil en México al identificar y cuantificar la influencia relativa de las seis variables principales que afectan las tasas de descuento temporal. El marco analítico desarrollado integra factores psicológicos, económicos y sociales, proporcionando una comprensión sobre esas dimensiones del fenómeno del reclutamiento criminal. Los hallazgos presentados tienen implicaciones profundas y de largo alcance para el diseño e implementación de políticas públicas. Los modelos de teoría de juegos muestran que las tasas de descuento afectan los equilibrios de cooperación entre Estado y familias, particularmente a través del umbral crítico δ*<1/2 identificado en el modelo de estrategia del gatillo. Las propuestas desarrolladas en la investigación abordan esto mediante tres estrategias interrelacionadas: el Programa de Desarrollo Educativo y Laboral que modifica los pagos inmediatos y futuros, la Iniciativa de Fortalecimiento Familiar y Comunitario que fortalece el equilibrio cooperativo, y la Estrategia Integral de Prevención que institucionaliza estos esfuerzos a nivel estatal. La efectividad de estas intervenciones depende de su capacidad para alterar simultáneamente las variables que mostraron mayor peso en los modelos: las tasas de homicidios, el nivel educativo y la presencia de fuerzas armadas. Las intervenciones propuestas modificarían las tasas de descuento a través de mecanismos específicos modelados en la teoría de juegos: el Programa de Desarrollo Educativo y Laboral altera directamente el término Mr(1-e)-C-D al incrementar la eficacia educativa (e) y reducir la tasa de reclutamiento (r) mediante la combinación de incentivos inmediatos (becas) y futuros (desarrollo profesional). La Iniciativa de Fortalecimiento Familiar fortalece el equilibrio cooperativo (In, Ed, Re)=(4,4,5) al alinear los pagos de Estado y familias. La Estrategia Integral institucionaliza estos cambios en los parámetros mediante el Consejo Estatal y el Observatorio, asegurando que δ se mantenga por debajo del umbral crítico δ*<1/2 identificado en el modelo de estrategia del gatillo. Al abordar este complejo problema desde múltiples ángulos y con un enfoque metodológico riguroso, este estudio no solo amplía nuestro entendimiento teórico del reclutamiento criminal, sino que también ofrece conocimientos prácticos y accionables para los formuladores de políticas, profesionales del desarrollo juvenil e investigadores en el campo de la seguridad pública y el desarrollo social en México y más allá.This research addresses the problem of youth recruitment by organized crime in Mexico, focusing on the eight states with the highest homicide rates among young people aged 15 to 34 between 2010 and 2022. The central argument is that the temporal discount rate—the tendency to value immediate rewards over future ones—is the key mechanism explaining youth vulnerability to criminal recruitment. This discount rate is influenced by six critical variables: the proportion of homicides against other deaths in the state, youth homicide rate, presence of armed forces, life expectancy, educational level, and average wages. The study demonstrates that states with higher homicide rates, less security force presence, lower life expectancy, lower educational levels, and reduced wages tend to generate higher discount rates among young people, making them more susceptible to recruitment. The research innovates by introducing present bias as a theoretical explanatory framework, moving away from traditional approaches that focus solely on socioeconomic or security factors. The temporal discount rate provides a theoretical mechanism that causally connects structural conditions with individual youth decisions regarding recruitment. Through comprehensive empirical analysis and game theory-based theoretical modeling, the research examines strategic interactions between youth, families, criminal organizations, and the State. The results reveal that variables with the strongest association or explanatory weight are youth homicide rates and total homicide proportion, followed by educational level and armed forces presence. Life expectancy and average wages also show associations, though of lesser magnitude. The equilibriums identified in game theory models are consistent with patterns observed in states like Chihuahua and Guerrero, where high homicide rates coincide with a greater youth propensity to value immediate criminal organization gains over long-term benefits of education and legal employment. The study does not limit itself to diagnosing the problem but advances towards proposing evidence-based intervention strategies. The proposals are specifically designed to modify youth discount rates through interventions in the variables identified as most influential. These include targeted educational and labor programs, family and community strengthening initiatives, and innovative security policies that integrate prevention with effective law enforcement. This research makes a significant contribution to the existing literature on organized crime and youth development in Mexico by identifying and quantifying the relative influence of the six main variables affecting temporal discount rates. The developed analytical framework integrates psychological, economic, and social factors, providing insight into these dimensions of criminal recruitment. The presented findings have profound and far-reaching implications for public policy design and implementation. Game theory models show that discount rates affect cooperation equilibriums between the State and families, particularly through the critical threshold δ*<1/2 identified in the trigger strategy model. The research proposals address this through three interrelated strategies: the Educational and Labor Development Program that modifies immediate and future payments, the Family and Community Strengthening Initiative that strengthens the cooperative equilibrium, and the Comprehensive Prevention Strategy that institutionalizes these efforts at the state level. The effectiveness of these interventions depends on their ability to simultaneously alter the variables that showed the greatest weight in the models: homicide rates, educational level, and armed forces presence. The proposed interventions would modify discount rates through specific mechanisms modeled in game theory: the Educational and Labor Development Program directly alters the term Mr(1-e)-C-D by increasing educational effectiveness (e) and reducing recruitment rate (r) through a combination of immediate (scholarships) and future (professional development) incentives. The Family Strengthening Initiative strengthens the cooperative equilibrium (In, Ed, Re)=(4,4,5) by aligning State and family payments. The Comprehensive Strategy institutionalizes these changes in parameters through the State Council and Observatory, ensuring that δ remains below the critical threshold δ*<1/2 identified in the trigger strategy model. By addressing this complex problem from multiple angles and with a rigorous methodological approach, this study not only expands our theoretical understanding of criminal recruitment but also offers practical and actionable insights for policymakers, youth development professionals, and researchers in the field of public safety and social development in Mexico and beyond
Commuting in unequal cities: the political economy of bus services in Latin America
Get PDFWhy do some cities deliver better and more affordable public transportation services than others? This dissertation investigates urban bus systems in major cities of the Global South, focusing on the political factors that have shaped the historical development of these services. By examining the cases of Buenos Aires (Argentina), Mexico City (Mexico), and São Paulo (Brazil), it explores how the affordability and quality of bus services have evolved over time in these Latin American metropolises. In the early 20th century, these cities had bus systems that were quite similar in terms of quality and fare prices for users. However, during the second half of the century, each city's bus system developed differently, resulting in significant contrasts. To address the question of why there are differences in the affordability and quality of urban bus systems among Global South metropolises, this dissertation is organized into three distinct parts. Considering the significant gap in the political science literature on the provision of urban public transportation, the first part of this dissertation proposes a conceptual and analytical framework to characterize, classify, and contrast different bus systems based on their levels of affordability and quality. By intersecting these two dimensions in a 2x2 table, four distinct ideal types of “fare regimes” are identified: inclusive top-notch (high quality and affordability), expensive mediocrity (low quality and affordability), prohibitive high-end (high quality, low affordability), and cheap service trap (low quality, high affordability). This typology of fare regimes forms the foundation for subsequent analyses, facilitating the classification of how each city's bus system has evolved over the last century. For example, Buenos Aires has consistently maintained an inclusive top-notch bus service over the past decades. In contrast, São Paulo has fluctuated between an inclusive top-notch and an expensive mediocrity system, and Mexico City has shifted from an inclusive top-notch service to a cheap service trap. The remainder of this dissertation elucidates how cities with initially inclusive top-notch bus systems diverged onto different developmental trajectories. To achieve this, Part 2 conducts a macro-level analysis of significant episodes that prompted substantial structural changes within the bus systems. The central thesis posits that privatization – the transfer of operations to the private sector – constituted a critical juncture for urban bus systems in each city, fundamentally transforming service standards and power distribution among key stakeholders. I argue that the outcomes of privatization varied due to the distinct coalitions that emerged in each city, with enduring legacies observable to the present day. Employing new historical and qualitative data sets and utilizing comparative historical methods, I demonstrate that city administrations with a technical-bureaucratic orientation, such as São Paulo's, gravitated towards privatization through a formal business model. This approach fostered local oligopolies and resulted in a predominantly prohibitive high-end regime. Conversely, left-wing populist governments, exemplified by Buenos Aires, championed the interests of former bus drivers, thereby sustaining an inclusive top-notch bus system. Finally, corporatist administrations, like those in Mexico City, aligned with groups that reinforced their corporatist foundation, leading to a cheap service trap regime. Finally, Part 3 investigates how recent democratic governments have navigated the enduring legacies of privatization within the urban transportation sector. Amid institutional and political inertia, where private actors possess well-defined interests and positions, I employ Process Tracing and qualitative data from various sources to illustrate that changes in bus systems over the past three decades have been predominantly incremental. Based on the related literature, I argue that these changes have been driven by political-electoral factors influencing service governance as these cities transitioned to democracy in the 1980s and 1990s. In this context, dynamics related to the median voter, partisan politics, credit claiming, and blame avoidance account for the incremental yet significant transformations observed in Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and São Paulo bus systems in recent years. The findings of this dissertation provide significant insights into how political dynamics have historically influenced public transportation policies and outcomes in urban settings. Theoretically, this work contributes to the broader political science discourse on the provision of public goods in major cities, particularly by addressing a topic that remains underexplored in the literature. Additionally, the empirical evidence presented in this dissertation offers insights into how the developmental trajectories of Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and São Paulo can be generalized to other cities in the Global South. This is particularly relevant given that the privatization of bus operations and the transition from authoritarianism to democracy are phenomena observed in numerous cities across the region
The effects of violence on remittances: the case of Central America
No full textRemittances, violence, violence perception, victimization, Central AmericaThe present work delves into the literature on remittances and violence, using security perception and crime victimization as proxies. Central America is considered one of the world's most significant remittance-receiving regions and one of the most violent regions. Therefore, this study examines the impact of violence on the receipt of remittances. This will be measured not only by security perception but also by crime victimization. I analyze this relationship using public opinion surveys from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua for the time periods from 2010 to 2023 (around six survey waves), by analyzing the data with a logistic regression model. The findings highlight that there exists a difference between violence perception and crime victimization in terms of receiving remittances. A high violence perception does not necessarily correspond negatively to the receipt of remittances for almost all of the analyzed countries, while crime victimization corresponds positively to remittances in all cases
Programas parciales de desarrollo urbano de la Ciudad de México: la imagen de la Ciudad desde la normatividad
Get PDFLas ciudades son espacios donde dan lugar los más altos productos de la acción humana, la cotidianeidad. Como muchas ciudades de Latinoamérica, la Ciudad de México se caracteriza por una expansión descontrolada de las áreas urbanas, generando condiciones de desigualdad social. Por ello la regulación urbanística es relevante, dado que el aumento de la población y el consumo no controlado de suelo urbano han sido responsables de ciudades más grandes y densas, incapaces de generar las condiciones óptimas de habitabilidad. Ante la necesidad de ordenar el espacio urbano, existen diversos instrumentos jurídicos que dan contenido, racionalidad, orden y dirección a la ciudad, entre estos se encuentran los Programas Parciales de Desarrollo Urbano (PPDU). Los PPDU, elaborados en conjunto con los residentes de la zona de aplicación, permiten comprender la composición urbana desde una aproximación de respuesta inmediata, es decir desde el nivel del ordenamiento territorial con mayor incidencia en la población: las calles, colonias y barrios. Ante la cantidad de problemas urbanos que puede darse en un espacio específico, los PPDU contienen diversidad de normas encaminadas a cumplir un tipo de proyecto social de ciudad. La presente investigación responde a ¿Qué tipo de Ciudad configuran a través de su normativa los Programas Parciales de Desarrollo Urbano? La investigación está encaminada a probar que los PPDU son instrumentos jurídicos de aplicación heterogénea, que atienden problemas públicos distintos, con instituciones distintas y por tanto, los ciudadanos habitan de manera distinta el espacio. Así, a partir de la lectura, sistematización y análisis de los cuarenta y nueve PPDU emitidos por la Secretaría de Desarrollo Urbano y Vivienda a la fecha, la investigación propone tres grupos clasificatorios de los Programas Parciales a fin de determinar el tipo de Ciudad configurada a través de estos: la ciudad histórica, la ciudad verde y la ciudad global
Monetary policy and climate change: a case for Mexico
No full textEl cambio climático y el aumento en la frecuencia y en la intensidad de los eventos meteorológicos extremos en las últimas décadas puede llegar a tener repercusiones importantes en la economía y en el manejo de política monetaria debido a los riesgos físicos y de transición del cambio climático. En este trabajo se explora el efecto de dos eventos climáticos extremos en particular sobre la economía mexicana, donde se presta particular atención a los efectos que estos tienen sobre la política monetaria. Se utiliza un modelo Dinámico de Equilibrio General Estocástico (DSGE) que permite a través de una distribución de probabilidad mixta la incorporación de choques climáticos. Los resultados muestran que ante un choque climático la producción disminuye y que a mediano plazo volverá a su valor de estado estacionario. Por otro lado, se encontró que ante un choque climático extremo la tasa de interés nominal aumenta. Un resultado que es contraintuitivo con los resultados obtenidos en este ejercicio y que requiere estudios posteriores.Climate change and the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in recent decades may have important repercussions on the economy and on the management of monetary policy due to the physical and transition risks of climate change. This research explores the effect of two extreme weather events in particular on the Mexican economy, paying particular attention to the effects they have on monetary policy. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is used that allows the incorporation of climate shocks through a mixed probability distribution. The results show that in the event of a climate shock, production decreases and that in the medium term it will return to its steady state value. On the other hand, it was found that in the event of an extreme climate shock, the nominal interest rate increases. A result that is counterintuitive with the results obtained in this exercise and that requires further studies