Riviste Online SApienza - R.O.SA - 2 (Sapienza University of Rome)
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On the reliability of computer-based climate models
Get PDFSince 1850 the global surface temperature of the Earth has warmed by about 0.9°C. The computer climate models adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such as the General Circulation Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), projected that the global surface temperature could rise more than 1.5°C by 2030 and more than 4-5°C by 2100 relative to the pre-industrial period (1850-1900) because of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These computer projections are being used to justify expensive mitigation policies to drastically reduce CO2 emissions due to the use of fossil fuel. However, these models must be validated before their interpretation of climate change could be considered reliable. Herein, I summarize recent scientific research pointing out that these GCMs fail to properly reconstruct the natural variability of the climate throughout the entire Holocene and at multiple time scales such as: (1) the Holocene Climatic Optimum (9000-6000 years ago) with the subsequent cooling from 5000 years ago to now; (2) the large millennial oscillations observed throughout the Holocene that were responsible, for example, for the Medieval Warm Period; (3) several shorter climatic oscillations with periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60 years; (4) the climate change trend after 2000 to date, which the models greatly overestimate; and many other patterns. These different pieces of evidence imply two main facts: (1) the models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to radiativeforcing, such as to an atmospheric CO2 doubling, is overestimated at least by a factor of 2, which implies a more realistic ECS between 1°C and 2°C; (2) there are a number of solar and astronomical forcings that are still missing in the models or are poorly understood yet. Consequently, these GCMs are not physically reliable for properly interpreting past and future climatic changes. Alternatively, semi-empirical climatic models should be used. Data analysis found that the climatic natural variability is made of several oscillations from the decadal to the millennial scales (e.g. periods of about 9.1, 10.4, 20, 60, 115, 1000 years) and others. These oscillations are coherent with solar, lunar and astronomical oscillations. A semi-empirical climate model that makes use of these oscillations plus a reduced ECS reconstructs with great accuracy the climate variability observed since 1850 and projects a very moderate warming until 2040 and a warming lower than 2°C from 2000 to 2100 using the same anthropogenic emission scenarios used for the 21st-century climate simulations of the CMIP5 models. This result suggests that climatic adaptation policies, which are far less expensive than the mitigation ones, could be sufficient to address the consequences of climatic changes that could occur during the 21st century
The antlions of Cyprus: review and new reports (Neuroptera: Myrmeleontidae)
Get PDFThe antlions (Myrmeleontidae) of Cyprus have been poorly studied and only 13 species were known from this biogeographically interesting island. In light of new field research, we provide an updated checklist to the Cypriot antlions, including seven species reported for the first time from the island. Of these, the findings of the Middle Eastern species Distoleon laticollis and Cueta kasyi are particularly noteworthy. The Cypriot antlion fauna appears dominated by widespread Mediterranean elements, with relatively few Middle Eastern and endemic species
An updated checklist of the scarab beetle fauna of Asinara Island, Sardinia, Italy (Coleoptera: Trogidae, Geotrupidae, Scarabaeidae, Aphodiidae, Cetoniidae, Dynastidae, Hybosoridae)
Get PDFThe island of Asinara, located in the northwest of Sardinia, is characterized by a large number of feral grazing mammals belonging to four herbivorous species (horse, donkey, mouflon, and goat) and an omnivorous one (wild boar). Hand-collections of scarabs in 2014 and the examination of unpublished records revealed the presence of five species new for Asinara (Trox nodulosus, Ateuchetus laticollis, Sisyphus schaefferi, Caccobius schreberi and Cetonia carthami). Based on all records (published and unpublished) we present a new checklist of the scarab beetle fauna of Asinara which increased from 30 to 43 species belonging to seven families: 2 Trogidae, 2 Geotrupidae, 13 Scarabaeidae, 19 Aphodiidae, 5 Cetoniidae, 1 Dynastidae, and 1 Hybosorida
Geographical distribution and conservation status of the threatened saproxylic beetles Rhysodes sulcatus (Fabricius, 1787), Clinidium canaliculatum (O.G. Costa, 1839) and Omoglymmius germari (Ganglbauer, 1891) in Italy (Coleoptera: Rhysodidae)
Get PDFThe distribution of the three Italian species of Rhysodidae was reviewed by re-examining published data, museum conserved and newly collected specimens. Rhysodes sulcatus chronogeonemy encloses a large majority of old findings and only two recently confirmed active populations are recorded after the year 2000. Omoglymmius germari shows a similar picture, with only one recent record (2018) in the Pollino National Park (Basilicata) but a small number of active populations after 2000. Clinidium canaliculatum populations are in a much better conservation status, with about 50 new sites detected after 2000 in the Sila National Park. Threats and research/monitoring needs have been discussed for each species and new IUCN status proposed for Italian populations: Critically Endangered (CR) for Rhysodes and Omoglymmius, Near Threatened (NT) for Clinidium
The jewel beetle Lamprodila (Palmar) festiva Linné, 1767, a new invasive urban pest of Cupressaceae in Cluj area (Romania) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)
Get PDFThe jewel beetle Lamprodila festiva (Linné, 1767), in natural habitats of S Europe originally associated with Juniperus spp. (Juniper; Cupressaceae), has been recorded as a recent invasive pest in several European areas, affecting different genera of these coniferous trees and spreading rapidly during the last few years in many countries of Europe. The research was carried out in 2017-2018 in Cluj-Napoca area (Romania), in field and laboratory conditions. The aim of our studies was to identify and study some populations of this new invasive pest occurring in urban areas of NW Romania
The likely alien species Pseudacrobasis tergestella (Ragonot, 1901) in central Italy (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae)
Get PDFIn this paper, we refer to the finding of Pseudacrobasis tergestella in central Italy. This species was found in Europe and described for the first time from NE Italy; subsequently it was found in Eastern Asia and described again as P. nankingella. In Italy, only two specimens from the North and four specimens from the South were known. Now the species was also recorded in central Italy providing evidence of the continuity of its distribution in our country
First record of the migrant dragonfly Pantala flavescens for mainland Italy (Insecta: Odonata)
Get PDFIn this contribution we report the observation of an individual of the migrant dragonfly Pantala flavescens (Fabricius, 1798) found at Montanaro (Piemonte, Italy) on 14 Aug 2019. This represents the first record of the species for mainland Italy and one of the very few available for Western and Central Europe before 2019. We discuss two hypotheses on the origin of this individual integrating available literature with very recent records retrieved from citizen science faunistic platforms
Groundwater and flood events in different hydrogeological periods: a case study in the Aspio River (Marche Regione)
Get PDFWhen applying hydrological models at basin scale, it is essential to take into account the contribution of groundwater and its behaviour, together with the hydrological state before and after storm events. The main objectives of the present study were the evaluation and discussion of factors contributing to the formation of river discharge, how and to what extent these factors affect the risk of flood and, finally, how they are related to the type, duration and intensity of rainfall events, especially associated with flash floods. This was achieved by applying HEC-HMS models to a small watershed in central Italy, characterised by high hydrogeological risk. The watershed is equipped for total rainfall, river discharge and groundwater level measurement. In addition, double ring infiltrometric tests were performed during different hydrological periods. The results highlighted a direct correlation between flood risk and the hydrological period; the insertion of groundwater data in the model allowed for a sensitivity analysis of the relationship between the level of risk and the hydrogeological settings and properties of the area. Moreover, the analysis of some “extreme” events occurring in the summer period highlighted river behaviour in very different hydrological states
