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MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH TO WILDFIRE OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY MODELING IN SERBIA
No full textWildfire poses a severe threat to forest ecosystems worldwide, causing substantial economic losses and ecological damage. This study aims to evaluate the main driving factors, create models, and generate corresponding maps for current and future wildfire occurrence probability in Serbia under projected climate change scenarios. Machine learning approaches, specifically Distributed Random Forest (DRF) algorithms, were employed to determine the most contributing factors and create models. The study area covered 88,361 km2 of Serbia, with a total of 1,192 wildfires included in the analysis. Independent variables were categorized into topography, vegetation, anthropogenic factors, and climate. Three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios were selected to evaluate the contribution of climate change to wildfire susceptibility. The DRF models showed outstanding performance with AUC values ranging from 0.926 to 0.937 during the training phase and 0.927 to 0.936 during validation. Precipitation seasonality, daily mean air temperatures of the driest quarter, distance to rail, elevation, and distance to municipality were the top contributing predictors in the SSP models. Wildfire occurrence probability maps were generated for the reference period (2008-2022) and future periods under different SSP scenarios. The results indicate that the high to very high susceptibility classes are expected to cover 29.45% to 58.87% of the total area in future periods, depending on the SSP scenario and time frame. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interplay of climatic, vegetational, topographic, and anthropogenic factors driving wildfire susceptibility in Serbia and highlights the importance of considering climate change in wildfire management and mitigation strategies
RAMSAR SITES PROTECTION IN SERBIA: EVALUATION OF NATIONAL LAWS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY ENHANCEMENT
No full textThe Republic of Serbia currently has 11 Ramsar Sites, which occupy a surface area of approximately
130,411 ha. While Ramsar Sites have been protected on a global level, their effective management
calls for improved coherence and strengthening of relevant policies at all governance levels. To fill
this gap, the goal of this research was to compile a list of national policy laws in Serbia that pertain
to wetland protection, and provide implications for improvement in alignment with recommended
policies by the Ramsar Convention. A comprehensive examination was conducted on the laws and
regulations governing the conservation of wetlands in the Republic of Serbia. In addition, Ramsar
Convention policy recommendations were analyzed. Considering that wetland ecosystems are
extremely complex, their eco-media protection is determined by multiple regulations. An overview
of the laws related to the Ramsar wetlands in Serbia includes 13 different laws:
(1) Law on Environmental Protection (135/2004, 36/2009, 72/2009, 43/2011, 14/2016);
(2) Law on Nature Protection (36/2009, 88/2010, 91/2010 (corr.), 14/2016, 95/2018, 71/2021);
(3) Law on Water (30/2010, 93/2012, 101/2016, 95/2018);
(4) Law on Forests (30/2010, 93/2012, 95/2018, 91/2019);
(5) Law on Strategic Environmental Impact Assessment (135/2004, 88/2010, 91/2010 (corr.),
14/2016, 95/2018, 71/2021 (replaced by 94/2024));
(6) Law on Environmental Impact Assessment (135/2004, 36/2009, 72/2009, 43/2011, 14/2016,
94/2024);
(7) Law on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (135/2004, 25/2015, 109/2021);
(8) Law on Waste Management (36/2009, 88/2010, 14/2016, 95/2018, 35/2023);
(9) Law on Agriculture and Rural Development (41/2009, 10/2013 (other law), 101/2016,
67/2021 (other law), 114/2021, 19/2025);
(10) Law on Agricultural Land (62/2006, 65/2008, 41/2009, 112/2015, 80/2017, 95/2018,
95/2019);
(11) Law on Planning and Construction (72/2009, 81/2009 (corr.), 64/2010, 24/2011, 121/2012,
42/2013, 50/2013 (CC decision), 98/2013, 132/2014, 145/2014, 83/2018, 31/2019, 9/2020,
52/2021, 54/2021, 62/2023);
(12) Law on Tourism (17/2019; earlier amendments in 2015; draft amendments pending (based
on 36/09));
(13) Law on National Parks (84/2015, 95/2018).
The review of legal regulations reveals a multifaceted policy framework governing wetland
protection in the Republic of Serbia. Alongside the 13 main laws identified, various by-laws and
implementing regulations include more details and guidance, thus adding further complexity.
However, the multiplicity of relevant regulations also points to potential challenges in policy
integration and enforcement. The experience of the Ramsar Convention underscores that while
international frameworks provide essential guidance, they are not binding, and effective wetland
conservation ultimately depends on robust national policy frameworks. The development of a
unique ("self-contained") wetland regulation and policy can be an important step in recognizing
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wetland disturbances and targeted action to address them. It would further provide an opportunity
to recognize wetlands as ecosystems that require different approaches to their management and
conservation.
Reflecting the Ramsar Convention’s lessons, Serbia and other countries may benefit from
establishing national wetland policies that unify existing sectoral laws, clarify management
responsibilities, and articulate clear conservation objectives. Moreover, wetland conservation
strategies must explicitly address climate resilience, recognizing wetlands as vital carbon sinks and
buffers against climate impacts. Embedding these insights in Serbia’s wetland policy can enhance
the conservation of Ramsar wetlands amid ongoing climatic and anthropogenic challenges
Application of locally manufactured GPS tracking technology in wildlife reintroduction in Serbia
No full textIn Serbia, many game and threatened species currently exhibit low population abundance and fragmenteddistributions, prompting state authorities and expert bodies to initiate species reintroduction programs. Theconservation translocation of species to habitats from which they have been disappeared is a complex processthat depends heavily on careful planning and effective monitoring. GPS telemetry, particularly through the useof modern GPS tags, has become a valuable tool for obtaining critical data on spatial and behavioral ecology,resource selection and their conservation. However, the implementation of GPS technology in Serbia is stillemerging due to limited resources and the high cost of imported equipment. Developing locally manufacturedalternatives could provide a cost-effective and readily available solution for advancing wildlife research in theregion. This study evaluates the performance of GPS tags developed by the Serbian company CANANDI (Niš), apioneer in the field, in tracking three species: Chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra Linnaeus, 1758), Red Deer (Cervuselaphus Linnaeus, 1758), and Eagle Owl (Bubo bubo Linnaeus, 1758). A total of four GPS tags were deployedto assess their effectiveness in monitoring above-mentioned species and to evaluate their potential for broaderapplication in conservation efforts. Preliminary findings, although limited, highlight the usefulness of GPS tags inthe reintroduction process. Results provided valuable insights into the ecological requirements of marked individuals,including the detection of mortality in a Chamois; the successful adaptation of an Eagle Owl to its newenvironment; and dispersion patterns of two Red Deer stags, one of which adapted to the pre-release enclosurewhile the other moved outside the fenced area. These initial findings demonstrate the potential of locally manufacturedGPS technology in supporting wildlife conservation and management. As such they provide a valuablefoundation for future research and improved species reintroduction strategies in Serbia and neighboring areas
TEACHING LANDSCAPE CHARACTER BY GEODESIGN: THE CASE OF SURČIN MUNICIPALITY LANDSCAPE PLAN
No full textThis paper presents an educational approach
to a landscape character assessment, planning and design within a Master course of
Landscape architecture at the Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade.
Through a case study of the Municipality of
Surčin, an agricultural landscape within the
metropolitan area of Belgrade, students are
introduced to the principles of the European
Landscape Convention (ELC) and the methodology of Landscape Character Assessment
(LCA) and IGC, applying tools for the sustainable landscape planning of agricultural areas.
As a territory of the Surčin municipality is historically shaped by agriculture, it has undergone
significant transformation due to urban transformation and infrastructure development.
These changes present the main challenge in
balancing between preserving cultural heritage and ensuring multifunctional landscape
planning and development. That’s why we embrace problem-based learning, actively involving students in applying Landscape Character
Assessment to identify the unique qualities of a
landscape and guide its appropriate protection
and design. With this approach, students are
enabled to address contemporary challenges
and develop an innovative solution for biodiversity conservation, climate resilience and spatial
planning.
Using Geodesign as a decision-support tool,
students are able to integrate spatial analysis
and scenario-based landscape planning where
we also simulate negotiation process within
stakeholders in order to develop sustainable
strategies in the planning processes.
The paper argues that preparing future professionals must involve engaging with landscape
character through Geodesign and IGC, as this
approach enhances students’ ability to understand agricultural landscapes as living heritage. By doing so, we equip students to plan
and design resilient, multifunctional agricultural landscapes that harmonize tradition with
modernit
Ultradifferentiable functions via the Laguerre operator
No full textWe define and characterize ultradifferentiable functions and their corresponding ultradistributions on Rd
+ using iterates of the Laguerre operator. The characterization is based on the
decay or growth conditions of the coefficients in their Laguerre series expansion. We apply
our results to establish an isomorphism between subspaces of Pilipovi´c spaces on Rd , and
the spaces of ultradifferentiable functions on Rd
+
Exploring visual communication in origami design byusing virtual reality and generative ai technologies
No full textBy transforming a flat sheet of paper into a variety of three-dimensional objects,
origami design models illustrate the folding art with a basis in geometry. As an interactive
learning activity, the origami technique could offer great benefits in different applications.
Origami folding is an activity proven to improve analytical skills, concentration,
problem-solving skills and develop creativity with engineering students in several studies.
The folding techniques are explored at the Department of Landscape Architecture and
Horticulture, Faculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade, where the Geometry and Graphic
education relies on the "learning by doing" method which includes the process of exploring
and creating different geometrical structures by using manual and digital approaches. At the
first year of undergraduate studies, the students are encouraged to explore the manual folding
techniques in order to create the five Platonic solids at the course of Descriptive Geometry.
As a part of the Landscape Architectural Graphics, the students explore computational
modeling of various geometric forms and their representation. As an extracurricular activity,
very skilled students have an opportunity to continue to explore different folding techniques
at the Origami Section of the Geometry Workshop. The Origami Section has had several
achievements over the years, some of which include organizing the origami workshop at
Harudori Festival 2018 and participation in the International Danube Day Event 2023. The
creative platform "Geometry Workshop" is also acknowledged with letters of appreciation
from organizers, for successful participation on the European Researchers' Night Festival,
both the one in September 2023 and the one in September 2024. For the XV European
Researchers' Night Festival, students were encouraged to explore different Generative
Artificial Intelligence tools as an intro into the advanced digital approach for origami design
and traditional origami folding techniques, with the aim to raise awareness about endangered
plants in Serbia. The aim was to explore the potential of the Gen-AI tools in origami design
and folding technique, their limits and by presenting the results onon a public event, to examine
the impressions of the visitors to the workshop by observing
Perspectives: State of national forest damage survey programmes in Europe and ways toward improved harmonization and data sharing
No full textRecent increases in forest damage across Europe have challenged national forestry sectors and threatened
progress toward Europe’s climate and bioeconomy goals. Although developments in remote sensing now allow
large-scale wall-to-wall monitoring of forest conditions, reliable damage assessments still require robust
terrestrial data. Yet, existing data often remain inconsistent and fragmentarily distributed across institutions and
countries. Based on consultations with national experts, we here provide an evaluation of national forest damage
survey programmes in 19 European countries, identify obstacles that hinder more effective use of data, and
formulate recommendations to overcome these barriers. We examined five aspects of national forest damage
surveys: (i) legal and institutional frameworks, (ii) data acquisition methods, (iii) damage attribution, (iv) data
quality and consistency, and (v) data accessibility. We found that half of the examined programs have changed
protocols since 2000 and only 53 % of countries currently have survey programs covering their entire forest area
Variability in needle transverse anatomy of Picea abies (l.) H. Karst.: a case study from Čemernik mountain, Serbia
No full textNorway spruce is an important forest species facing the risk of range shift from its current distributional boundaries. This study analyzes the morphological and anatomical characteristics of Norway spruce needles with the aim of determining and understanding the variability and population diversity of this species on Mt. Čemernik in Serbia, a site outside its native range. Differences between one-year-old and two-year-old needles from Norway spruce trees aged 100 and 50 years were investigated. Morpho-anatomical parameters, including needle length, width and thickness, vascular bundle diameter and area, and the number and diameter of resin canals, were analyzed. The research findings and statistical analyses confirm that the old trees possess exceptional traits and represent a valuable gene pool. Considering that ecological valence is a heritable trait, i.e., the ability to adapt is determined by the plant’s genetic basis. A selected phenogroup of three old trees demonstrated successful adaptation to the Čemernik site, suggesting their potential for wider application and further introduction into other mountainous regions with similar conditions where the species is non-native
An objective methodology for waterlogging risk assessment based on the entropy weighting method and machine learning
No full textWaterlogging disasters are one of the most severe and widespread agricultural meteorological disasters. They affect about 15% of land surface globally, causing a significant reduction in crop growth and yields. This paper presents an objective methodology for assessing waterlogging risk, primarily in non-urban, predominantly agricultural areas. The waterlogging risk was assessed by evaluating vulnerability and hazard based on key environmental, anthropogenic, and climatic factors. The weights of factors affecting the waterlogging vulnerability were determined using the entropy weight method (EWM), assuring the objectivity of the overall evaluation results. The obtained waterlogging risk map was validated by comparing it with observed and detected waterlogged sites using Sentinel-2 imagery and Random Forest classification. The key novelties of this study are the use of the entropy weight method to objectively determine the relative importance of factors influencing waterlogging vulnerability, and a two-step validation process which includes field-based comparison and remote sensing validation. The presented methodology was demonstrated in the Vojvodina region, Serbia. The following waterlogging vulnerability factors were used: soil properties, geomorphology, surface depressions, average phreatic water table depth, and land cover. The EWM shows that surface depressions and soil properties have the most significant influence on waterlogging vulnerability. The highest waterlogging hazard classes occur in about 31% of the analyzed territory. The waterlogging hazard was estimated based on water balance for the non-vegetation season and maximum daily precipitation in spring, both modeled using the Generalize Extreme Value distribution function. The highest waterlogging hazard classes occur in about 31% of the analyzed territory. The final risk map shows that the high waterlogging risk occurs in about 11% of the territory. Those are mainly areas in the central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the Vojvodina region, usually along the main watercourses. High agreement between the detected waterlogged areas and the produced waterlogging risk map was achieved, validating the proposed methodology. The presented waterlogging risk assessment methodology is valuable for planning and policy-making for various water management and environmental activities. Although it is demonstrated in Vojvodina, by selecting the appropriate factors of vulnerability and hazard, it can be applied to any other region
Evaluation of the utilisation potential of ficus carica l. under conditions of climatic challenges: state and perspectives
No full text: Chaenomeles japonica (Thunb.) Lindl. has gained attention over the past decade as a new fruit
crop.The research was based on the hypothesis that there are genotypes adapted to climate change, producing
high-quality fruits that provide both cultural and ecosystem services, while also being significant for commercial
production. Therefore, in this study, the biochemical composition and antioxidant capacity of fresh fruit juicy
parts were analysed at the genotype level using an official protocol with two analytical-grade reagents: ethanol
and distilled water. The results highlight ethanol as a more efficient solvent for extracting bioactive compounds,
enhancing their potential for neutralizing free radicals. Additionally, the findings confirm significant
concentrations of phenolic compounds, tannins, flavonoids, anthocyanins, and vitamin C, as well as antioxidant
activity. These results could have important implications for the practical use value of the selected genotype,
demonstrating its sustainability under climate change conditions