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    Debt challenges and fiscal space constraints in developing countries : how to overcome them to invest in sustainable development at scale?

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    The additional annual investment requirements for developing countries to achieve sustainable development goals, including climate action, have been estimated at an average of $3.1 trillion by 2030 or 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product globally and an important share of this amount will need to be government funded. However, this will be highly challenging for many countries due to high levels of public debt and limited fiscal space. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of trends in developing countries’ public debt and its impact on fiscal space. The paper includes an examination of the currency risk associated with foreign currency denominated debt, proposes a novel indicator of fiscal space, and conducts an econometric exercise to understand its determinants. The paper considers selected policy recommendations to address debt challenges and fiscal space constraints and concludes that addressing these challenges is a necessary condition for many developing countries to be able to invest in sustainable development at an appropriate scale.Abstract .............................................................................4 I. INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................5 II. RISING PUBLIC DEBT LEVELS AND INTEREST PAYMENTS.............................7 III. THE ROLE OF THE INTEREST RATE...............................................................11 IV. AN ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE: CURRENCY RISK..........................................15 V. IMPLICATIONS FOR FISCAL SPACE AND A PROPOSED INDICATOR ..............19 VI. DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL SPACE..............................................................23 VII. HOW TO ADDRESS DEBT AND FISCAL SPACE CHALLENGES? .......................28 7.1 Improve debt restructuring procedures ......................................................28 7.2 Improve the functioning of sovereign debt markets .....................................30 7.3 Strengthen the mobilization of public domestic resources .......................31 VIII. CONCLUSION..............................................................................................33 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................36 Annexes .............................................................................................................39 A. Classification of countries by development status, region and income group...39 B. Classification of countries and jurisdictions by securities market development....42 C. Treatment of outliers in the dataset for the regression analysis ....................4

    Sustaining Timor-Leste’s economy amid the oil depletion : the coffee sector holds potential

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    This policy brief first examines the economic challenge of oil depletion and provides historical context. It then explores both the potential and the challenges of the coffee sector as an alternative growth sector for development. The final section provides a set of policy recommendations for policymakers and relevant stakeholders, including the development agencies.Timor-Leste’s current oil reserves, which account for over 95% of total exports, are expected to run out within the next decade. While new exploration is underway, results will take years to materialize. Until then, the country must develop alternative sectors to avoid the deterioration of its already fragile economy. This policy brief brings attention to the potential of the coffee industry and discusses how Timor-Leste can generate income by capitalizing on its unique “Timor-hybrid” coffee variety, rising global coffee prices, and robust regional demand for coffee. However, the low productivity among coffee trees remains the key constraint. To address this, building on the government’s existing initiatives, this policy brief recommends: (1) scaling up coffee tree rehabilitation efforts based on the 2019’s long-term development plan, (2) strengthening policies to mobilize private sector investments, and (3) leveraging the global and regional support mechanisms to access technical expertise in coffee production

    Funding the future: financing development in middle-income countries

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    This policy brief outlines financing challenges and opportunities for middle-income countries (MICs) amid rising development demands, constrained fiscal space, and limited access to concessional finance. MICs find themselves caught between the limitations of traditional economic growth models and the imperative to meet sustainable development ambitions with limited financial resources.. The policy brief identifies three strategic fronts for consideration and action: 1. Enhancing Domestic Savings and Fiscal Space: Strengthening national savings through improved household incomes, social protection, and financial literacy is key. On the fiscal side, tax revenues must be boosted through reforms in tax structure, administration, and digitalization, while untapped sources such as property taxes and land value capture should be considered. Robust domestic revenue generation can reduce dependence on external financing. 2. Safeguarding Debt Sustainability: While public borrowing remains vital for investing in sustainable development, its productive use, efficient allocation, and prudent debt management are essential to avoid future fiscal and debt distress. The policy brief highlights the importance of stronger legal frameworks, transparency, and contingency planning. It also calls for more timely and fair international debt restructuring mechanisms for MICs, especially in climate-vulnerable or liquidity-constrained cases. 3. Developing Efficient Financial Intermediaries: Deepening financial markets and supporting institutional infrastructure (e.g. credit bureaus, insolvency systems) can enhance access to finance, especially for smaller firms. National development banks should be reformed and leveraged alongside multilateral development institutions to de-risk investments and support priority sectors. Meanwhile, local currency bond markets can be strengthened to provide more reliable access to finance and investment options for domestic savings.Summary ........................................................................................................................ 4 I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 5 II. STRENGTHENING DOMESTIC SAVINGS AND FISCAL SPACE ........................................ 7 A. Factors shaping domestic savings and measures to boost it ........................................... 7 B. Measures for enhancing tax revenues .............................................................................. 8 C. Tapping into the fertile public revenue base of property market ................................... 12 III. EFFECTIVELY MANAGING PUBLIC DEBT SUSTAINABILITY RISKS ................................ 14 A. Debt sustainability pressures in middle-income countries in Asia and the Pacific ....... 14 B. Productive use of borrowed funds as the first line of defense against debt distress .... 15 C. Effective public debt management and monitoring as a fiscal safeguard ...................... 16 D. Timely public debt restructuring and debt relief for countries in need .......................... 17 IV. CREATING EFFICIENT FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES AND RELATED INFRASTRUCTURE TO CHANNEL FINANCIAL RESOURCES TOWARDS STRATEGIC INVESTMENT AREAS ..... 19 A. The development of financial markets and private institutions ..................................... 19 B. National development banks as enablers to finance development ambitions ............... 21 V. CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................................... 22 REFERENCE .................................................................................................................. 2

    National cooling action plans and their contribution to the sustainable development agenda

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    National Cooling Action Plans (NCAPs) provide governments with a structured framework to address these challenges. They enable countries to assess cooling needs, strengthen standards and regulations, expand passive design and efficiency measures, and align national strategies with international commitments under the Paris Agreement, the Kigali Amendment, and the Global Cooling Pledge. This policy brief highlights the scale of the cooling challenge, the role of NCAPs in advancing sustainable development, and the enabling environments required for success. It concludes with policy recommendations that emphasize mainstreaming passive cooling, expanding financing options, improving coordination, enhancing data systems, and promoting equitable access. Together, these measures will allow Asia-Pacific countries to transform cooling from a driver of emissions into an enabler of resilience, inclusive growth, and climate action.Table of Contents Contents SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 4 I: INTRODUCTION .............................................. 5 II: THE COOLING CHALLENGE IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ............................. 6 2.1 An expanding need for sustainable cooling ........................................ 6 III: WHAT ARE NATIONAL COOLING ACTION PLANS?.................................................................................. 7 3.1 NCAPs and national development objectives ..................................... 7 3.2 Status of NCAP development in the region............................................ 8 IV. ENABLING ENVIRONMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION PATHWAYS ....................... 9 V: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ...................................... 12 VI: CONCLUSION ............................ 1

    Urban transformation in Asia and the Pacific : from growth to resilience

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    In this report, ESCAP explores the future of urbanization in Asia and the Pacific, focusing on the dynamic shifts in the region’s urban landscape. It highlights the region’s demographic transformations, including population ageing, and the persistent challenges of urban poverty and inequality. The analysis covers urban areas of all sizes, from megacities to smaller towns, and emphasizes the need for innovative governance models and sustainable development strategies to meet the region’s unique urban needs. Key vulnerabilities, such as economic volatility, climate risks and social disparities, are addressed, as are opportunities for cities to serve as testing grounds for new solutions. ESCAP underscores the critical role of regional cooperation in overcoming the challenges faced by cities and identifies shared approaches to localizing global goals, enhancing multilevel climate action and fostering inclusive urban growth. It also emphasizes the importance of data, digital transformation and innovative financing in supporting sustainable urban development and ensuring cities are equipped to navigate the complex future ahead. Contents Foreword iii Acknowledgements iv Boxes, figures and tables vi Acronyms vii Executive summary ix Chapter 1 Urban evolution: Shaping the future of cities in Asia and the Pacific 1 1.1 Urban landscapes: Evolving demographic dynamics 2 1.2 Urban diversity: From megacities to small towns 6 1.3 Urban governance: Who runs the city? 7 1.4 Urban resilience and sustainability: Seizing the urban SDG opportunity 13 Chapter 2 City limits: Key vulnerabilities of urban Asia and the Pacific 19 2.1 Cities on the edge: Economic volatility 20 2.2 Climate and environment showdown: How cities are facing the future 21 2.3 Urban fault lines: Migration, inequality and social justice 27 Chapter 3 Unlocking the future: Tapping into the urban potential of Asia and the Pacific 32 3.1 Financing the future: Innovative solutions for urban investment 33 3.2 Inclusivity matters: Gender, age, disabilities and social equity in cities 38 3.3 Localizing global goals: Tailoring SDGs and climate action 41 3.4 Prioritizing implementation: Turning ideas into action 45 Chapter 4 Recommendations for transforming vision into action 60 4.1 Enhance regional cooperation for resilient and sustainable urban development 61 4.2 Adopt integrated national urban policies to bolster multilevel governance 61 4.3 Strengthen subnational and local data collection and reporting to promote evidence-based urban policies 61 4.4 Plan for urban demographic changes with strengthened spatial planning and inclusive social policies 62 4.5 Pursue a diversified and innovative approach to urban financing 6

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