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    A peer-support lifestyle intervention for preventing type 2 diabetes in India: A cluster randomized controlled trial of the Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program

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    BACKGROUND: The major efficacy trials on diabetes prevention have used resource-intensive approaches to identify high-risk individuals and deliver lifestyle interventions. Such strategies are not feasible for wider implementation in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a peer-support lifestyle intervention in preventing type 2 diabetes among high-risk individuals identified on the basis of a simple diabetes risk score. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Kerala Diabetes Prevention Program was a cluster-randomized controlled trial conducted in 60 polling areas (clusters) of Neyyattinkara taluk (subdistrict) in Trivandrum district, Kerala state, India. Participants (age 30-60 years) were those with an Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS) ≥60 and were free of diabetes on an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). A total of 1,007 participants (47.2% female) were enrolled (507 in the control group and 500 in the intervention group). Participants from intervention clusters participated in a 12-month community-based peer-support program comprising 15 group sessions (12 of which were led by trained lay peer leaders) and a range of community activities to support lifestyle change. Participants from control clusters received an education booklet with lifestyle change advice. The primary outcome was the incidence of diabetes at 24 months, diagnosed by an annual OGTT. Secondary outcomes were behavioral, clinical, and biochemical characteristics and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). A total of 964 (95.7%) participants were followed up at 24 months. Baseline characteristics of clusters and participants were similar between the study groups. After a median follow-up of 24 months, diabetes developed in 17.1% (79/463) of control participants and 14.9% (68/456) of intervention participants (relative risk [RR] 0.88, 95% CI 0.66-1.16, p = 0.36). At 24 months, compared with the control group, intervention participants had a greater reduction in IDRS score (mean difference: -1.50 points, p = 0.022) and alcohol use (RR 0.77, p = 0.018) and a greater increase in fruit and vegetable intake (≥5 servings/day) (RR 1.83, p = 0.008) and physical functioning score of the HRQoL scale (mean difference: 3.9 score, p = 0.016). The cost of delivering the peer-support intervention was US$22.5 per participant. There were no adverse events related to the intervention. We did not adjust for multiple comparisons, which may have increased the overall type I error rate. CONCLUSIONS: A low-cost community-based peer-support lifestyle intervention resulted in a nonsignificant reduction in diabetes incidence in this high-risk population at 24 months. However, there were significant improvements in some cardiovascular risk factors and physical functioning score of the HRQoL scale

    Overweight, the major determinant of metabolic syndrome among industrial workers in Kerala, India: Results of a cross sectional study

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    Aim To determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of metabolic syndrome (MS) among industrial workers in Kerala, India. Materials and methods We measured fasting plasma glucose (FPG), triglycerides, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure among 2287 industrial workers (mean age 46 years, men 70%) from selected industries of two southern most Kerala districts using standard protocol in 2009. MS was defined according to international diabetes federation (IDF), Adult Treatment Panel (ATP-III) and American Heart Association(AHA)/National Heart Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) criteria (Harmonization). Age-standardized prevalence of MS was assessed for men and women. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to find the associated factors of MS. Results Age-standardized prevalence of MS was 14% (men 14%, women 15%), 19% (men 19%, women 21%) and 27% (men 30%, women 21%) as per IDF, ATP-III and Harmonization criteria respectively. Overweight adults were nine times (OR 9.41, 95% CI 7.34–12.06), twelve times (OR 11.80 CI 9.38–14.84), and four times (OR 3.56, CI 2.94–4.29) more likely to have MS compared to their counterparts according to IDF, ATP-III and Harmonization criteria respectively. Older adults and current alcohol users were more likely to have MS compared to their counterparts. Women were more likely to have MS as per IDF and ATP-III criteria. Conclusions MS prevalence was high among Industrial workers who generally have good access to health care. Overweight and other predictors of MS need to be addressed to reduce MS prevalence in this population

    GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators .Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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    Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Task-shifting for cardiovascular risk factor management: lessons from the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases

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    Task-shifting to non-physician health workers (NPHWs) has been an effective model for managing infectious diseases and improving maternal and child health. There is inadequate evidence to show the effectiveness of NPHWs to manage cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). In 2012, the Global Alliance for Chronic Diseases funded eight studies which focused on task-shifting to NPHWs for the management of hypertension. We report the lessons learnt from the field. From each of the studies, we obtained information on the types of tasks shifted, the professional level from which the task was shifted, the training provided and the challenges faced. Additionally, we collected more granular data on ‘lessons learnt ’ throughout the implementation process and ‘design to implementation’ changes that emerged in each project. The tasks shifted to NPHWs included screening of individuals, referral to physicians for diagnosis and management, patient education for lifestyle improvement, follow-up and reminders for medication adherence and appointments. In four studies, tasks were shifted from physicians to NPHWs and in four studies tasks were shared between two different levels of NPHWs. Training programmes ranged between 3 and 7 days with regular refresher training. Two studies used clinical decision support tools and mobile health components. Challenges faced included system level barriers such as inability to prescribe medicines, varying skill sets of NPHWs, high workload and staff turnover. With the acute shortage of the health workforce in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), achieving better health outcomes for the prevention and control of CVD is a major challenge. Task-shifting or sharing provides a practical model for the management of CVD in LMICs

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