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Utilizing Google Trends data for effective modeling of COVID-19 outcomes: a vector auto regression (VAR) approach
Get PDFOver the past decade, especially during the three-year COVID-19 epidemic, infodemiology, which uses web-based data for public health issues, has helped assess and anticipate human behavior. Google\u27s real-time population data can indicate popular interest during a pandemic. This study analyzes Google Trends (GT) data of COVID-19-related search phrases and CDC information to forecast US daily new cases, cumulative cases, and deaths. Seasonality and trends are removed from trend data using an Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Using an eight-week forecast horizon, Granger Causality tests and Vector Auto Regression (VAR) models predict COVID-19 cases and deaths. GT\u27s relative search volume of COVID-19 keywords and CDC\u27s daily confirmed cases and cumulative deaths determine VAR model input search terms. RMSE (root mean square error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), and MASE (Mean Absolute Scaled Error) were used to compare forecast accuracies. Also analyzed are Long-Covid search trends
Autonomous Sensory Meridian Response (ASMR) Use in College Students
Get PDFAutonomous Sensory Meridian Response (ASMR) is the experience of tingling sensations in the crown and back of the head as a response to a range of audio-visual triggers such as whispering, tapping, and hand movements (Hostler, 2020). The number of people who produce and utilize ASMR inducing media has increased in the last few years, but little research has been done investigating its use among college students. This experimental study sought to investigate if viewing ASMR videos could reduce heart rate and perceived stress in college students. Twenty participants were shown either an ASMR video or a control video. Before and after watching the video, participants measured their heart rates and completed a perceived stress questionnaire. They were also asked questions about previous experiences with ASMR videos. The data revealed significant changes in heart rate. There were no significant differences found on perceives student stress. Results regarding participants experiences with ASMR videos are reported, however findings were limited based on small sample size
Numerical evaluation of wavenumbers of the acoustic waves propagating in an ice-covered ocean
Get PDFWe consider acoustic wave propagation in a layered ocean waveguide covered by thick ice. The standard method of separation of variables leads to a Sturm-Liouville problem in the crosssection of the waveguide. We are specifically interested in the two leading modes, the separated solutions for the maximal eigenvalues. We first consider the homogeneous waveguide. We prove the differentiability of the eigenvalues with respect to the frequency, the monotonicity of the eigenvalues with respect to the frequency, and the existence of the cut-off frequency. We compare these eigenvalues with the eigenvalues for the case of a waveguide with a free surface. To obtain some information about the influence of global warming on ice covers, we find the change in these eigenvalues with respect to air temperature. We further consider a layered medium. Assuming that the speed of propagation varies within the given limits, we develop a numerical algorithm, based on the formalism for layered media, that allows evaluating the minimum and maximum of the wavenumbers of the leading modes for a given continuous profile of the speed and the given values of Young\u27s Modulus and ice thickness. We compare some of these numerical results with the Machine Learning results. After finding numerical results, we compare them with the results of the asymptotic considerations and find the simplified dispersion relations. We further consider the model of pack ice, a limiting case of thick ice. Like the case of thick ice, we find the analytical, numerical, and asymptotic results for this case. These results were compared with the results of the model of thick ice. With the help of our results, we hope to develop the corresponding inverse problem methods for future work to study the influence of global warming on ice covers
An examination of the disparate impact of neighborhood characteristics on routine and gang-involved gun violence
Get PDFAn extensive body of literature has described the influence of neighborhood characteristics, including socio-economic deprivation, residential turnover, and racial/ethnic composition on gun crime. There have been limited efforts, however, to examine the extent to which these effects might vary based on the nature of gun crime—particularly in communities outside of major cities like Chicago or St. Louis. This study attempts to address this issue through application of negative binomial regression and equality of coefficients tests to data obtained from the crime logs and American Community Survey data of a medium-sized city in the Southeastern U.S. Specifically, this study examines (in)equality in the structural covariates of gun crimes when these offenses are disaggregated by gang-involved gun crime versus non-gang-involved gun crime. Results indicate that the relative influence of neighborhood structural characteristics varies by gun crime type, illustrating the need for disaggregated measures for developing effective policy and assessment
Substance use disorder prevention among sexual and gender minority youth
Get PDFSubstance Use Disorder (SUD) has a more prevalent effect on Sexual and Gender Minority Youth (SGMY), leading to a need for dedicated and specialized programs to reduce disparity. The review included 18 scholarly articles, ranging from the years 1992 to 2022. In the present review, we explored factors related to SGMY substance use, including those that protect and insulate this vulnerable population against a negative coping skill with a wide array of neurological, emotional, and societal adjustment problems. We concluded that SGMY experience SUD more than their straight, cisgender peers. Also, targeted interventions are necessary to curb maladaptive coping strategies and build resilience. Real-world implications of such research were discussed, and a path forward was presented to take care of a vulnerable population in need of intervention, assistance, and care
Playing the policy game: basic knowledge and skills for effective policy process participation
Get PDFMany of us have likely heard the expression “government of the people, by the people, for the people.” Yet, it is the people who are often excluded from the public policy process. Citizen engagement is typically reactive rather than proactive and passive as opposed to active. Voting and protesting are not the only ways that governments hear the voices of the people. Voting allows citizens to choose individuals who represent their interests, yet their interests are not always represented in ways they desire. Protesting brings attention to issues but doesn’t always lead to problems being solved. This book aims to empower readers to be active participants in the policy process rather than centering elected officials, appointed officials or bureaucrats as the only sources of policy power. This book is written in the spirit of equity. In order to have equitable public policies the voices of those who are impacted by these policies need to be heard as “gaps exist between the services governments deliver and what citizens want or need” (Mintrom & Luetjens, 2018, pg. 122). This is not simply a matter of contributing to policy discourse, but perhaps more importantly, a matter of contributing to the design, development and evaluation of public policy. Further, it is about holding policy makers and other decision makers accountable for their actions and the results of the actions. This book draws from lessons learned from my practical experiences, teaching and research. It is my hope that it equips those on the front lines of public policy and social equity with the tools needed to be effective producers and consumers of public policy ideas.https://scholar.utc.edu/open-textbooks/1003/thumbnail.jp
The different shades of liars: four chapters of literary fiction with craft essay
No full textThis creative writing thesis has two parts. Part one is a craft paper, examining the craft elements involved in writing about the passage of time in fiction narratives. The second part of this thesis is the prologue and first four chapters of a literary fiction novel. The story follows Virginia, a seventeen-year-old who recently moved to a new town in rural South Georgia for her father’s work as a Methodist pastor. With an already complicated family and social dynamic, her view of the world is further impacted by her ability to see “auras,” physical representation of each person’s true motives and moods through colors that surround them, an ability that she gained as a result of a car accident. With this view of the world, she struggles to cope with the differences around the words and actions of those around her and the true intent that only she can see
Can replication save lives? Reproducing previous research where behavior based safety practices reduced incident likelihoods
Get PDFProposed and in-progress research: Introduction In 2021, workplace injuries and illnesses numbered 2.6 million, and workplace fatalities from injury alone numbered 5,190, an increase of 8.9% from 2020 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023). Data from 2019 indicates that these types of incidents collectively cost employers more than $1 billion per week in direct costs (Liberty Mutual Insurance, 2022). The high financial toll and prevalence of workplace injuries indicates the critical nature of safety research. A preliminary predictive model has suggested that safety observations and hazard identifications can reduce the likelihood of workplace injuries (Granowsky et al., 2023). This proposed study will perform a robust replication of that work. Methodology Three years of safety data (2020 - 2022) have been obtained, which includes safety observation counts, hazard identification counts, and incident counts, from the maintenance division in a large chemical manufacturing company in the United States. Safety observations and hazard identifications will be normalized by work hours to reflect the total number of observations per 8-hour shift. Safety incidents will be dichotomized to indicate: did an incident occur (1) or an incident did not occur (0). A rolling sum time-series logistic regression analysis will be performed to analyze weather observations and/or hazards over the previous seven days decrease the odds of an incident occurring over the next seven days. The logistic regression analyses will be performed within seven maintenance departments and aggregated upward such that results represent the average odds increase/decrease across the entire division. Results & Discussion Based on previous findings (Granowsky et al., 2023; Sant et al., 2022) it is expected the results will show that for every daily safety observation performed the odds of an incident will decrease between 15 - 25% over the next three days. Similarly, for every hazard identification performed over three days the odds of an incident occurring will decrease between 10 - 20% over the next seven days. These results would reinforce previous findings suggesting that performing safety observations and reporting hazards can mitigate incident risk, significantly benefiting employees and employers alike. An odds reduction of the aforementioned magnitudes would equate to approximately 20 less workplace incidents annually, preventing serious injuries amongst employees and saving the organization countless monies and resources. To maintain a reduction in workplace incidents, organizations need a strong safety culture, rigorous safety reporting procedures, and upper managerial support for workplace safety
Investigating the Gendered Effects of Caregiving Policies in Academia
Get PDFAlthough women receive more doctorates across disciplines, they continue to be underrepresented in academia with representation of women faculty diminishing at higher ranks relative to their male counterparts. This phenomenon is known as the ‘leaky pipeline,’ and is frequently observed in STEM fields, though it exists across disciplines. Previous studies suggest the motherhood penalty heavily impacts women’s careers, especially in academia where biological and tenure clocks coincide. The overall aim of this study is to examine the gendered effects of caregiving policies for faculty in STEM fields at regional comprehensive universities through integrating the Work-Home Resources (W-HR) Model and feminist economics. Feminist economics highlights the unequal challenges faced by women and men, which are often overlooked in gender-neutral caregiving policies. The W-HR Model posits that demands in one domain, such as caregiving responsibilities, can spill over to affect resources in another domain, potentially impacting work outcomes. This study will employ a mixed-methods approach, incorporating publicly available data on caregiving policies and the number of male and female STEM faculty pre- and post-policy implementation from university websites; survey measures assessing work (i.e., productivity, workload) and well-being outcomes (i.e., family guilt, work-family conflict); and structured interviews to gather in-depth insights on parental leave policies and return-to-work experiences. The sample will include approximately 150 faculty from STEM disciplines who have utilized caregiving policies at regional comprehensive universities in the United States. Following the implementation of caregiving policies, we expect a decrease in the number of women faculty in STEM from Assistant to Associate Professor ranks. We also expect women faculty in STEM to report spending significantly more time on caregiving responsibilities than their male counterparts, as well as report significantly poorer work-related and well-being outcomes linked to caregiving compared to male colleagues. The study contributes to both research and practice by informing our understanding of the impact of caregiving policies on gender disparities in academia and guiding interventions to enhance the retention of women faculty in STEM at regional comprehensive universities. Achieving gender equity in academia necessitates addressing these issues, and this research aims to facilitate that progress
Measuring an ability-based emotional intelligence through an AI chatbot
Get PDFEmotional Intelligence (EI) is a rapidly expanding field in Psychology, but the term has often been interpreted too broadly, frequently being equated with good character or social skills, such as personality traits. However, EI should be understood as the ability of individuals to react effectively to others based on the emotional information. The purpose of this study is to explore the plausibility of indirectly measuring emotional intelligence as an ability through an Artificial Intelligence chatbot. This chatbot extracts various textual features from users’ free-text responses collected during online conversations and employs machine-learning algorithms to infer emotional intelligence scores that will be resulted in four facets, (1) ‘Identifying Emotions’, (2) ‘Facilitating Emotions’, (3) ‘Understanding Emotions’, and (4) ‘Regulating Emotions’. The psychometric properties of machine-inferred scores will be examined, and those are internal consistency split-half reliability, factorial validity, convergent validity and discriminant validity, and criterion-related and incremental validity. For the method, five hundred participants will be recruited through SONA, a research management system. Participants in the training sample (n=400) will complete a list of Situational Judgment Test (SJT) items to measure their emotional intelligence on Qualtrics, and they will interact with an AI chatbot for approximately 45 to 60 minutes. Participants in the test sample (n=100) will undergo the same study procedure as the training sample and go through additional steps such as providing their college GPA, ACT and/or SAT scores, and completing a couple of surveys: an IQ (g) test and a life satisfaction scale to assess the criterion variables on academic performance, life satisfaction, and cognitive ability