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Civil War Prediction : Literature Review on Territorial and Ethnic Structural Conditions
Get PDFArmed civil conflicts in foreign countries have significant consequences for states in the international system. The political, social and economic threats generated by them have in recent years become relevant in a global sense. In order to successfully deal with them, the international community desires to develop a reliable prediction and prevention model. The crucial part concerns the identification of the causal paths leading to conflict escalation but assembling these paths must be preceded by the evaluation of various possible causes as separate variables. It is also important to factor causal complexity into the model, therefore, to analyze not only single variables but also their interconnections. The article reviews two major areas of civil conflict causes – territorial and ethnic. It summarizes the main arguments and theories beyond the suggested proxy variables representing territorial and ethnic problems. By reviewing the existing research, this study aims to facilitate the selection of variables for prediction and prevention systems. The result is a literature review clarifying the relations among the causes of conflict that underlies their importance. All proposed territorial and ethnic causes have to be assessed in relation with complementary variables but also applied to a particular country which would benefit from the prediction and prevention model
East and South Africa : Spillover Effect of Conflicts
No full textThe article aims to present four conflicts in East and South Africa that spilled over into neighboring states. The article covers a limited period of time from the end of the Cold War to the present and focuses on the area of East and South Africa. All these conflicts are briefly introduced and the author concentrates mainly on the description of the spillover effect (it includes, for example, the phase of the confllict in which the confllict spilled over to a neighboring state, timing, interconnection or cooperation of armed groups). The most important goal of the article is to analyze conditions based on conflict theories and spillover effect theories that led to the spillover into these states and compare them with other neighboring states, where the conflicts did not occur
Predictive Cyber Situational Awareness and Personalized Blacklisting: A Sequential Rule Mining Approach
Get PDFCybersecurity adopts data mining for its ability to extract concealed and indistinct patterns in the data, such as for the needs of alert correlation. Inferring common attack patterns and rules from the alerts helps in understanding the threat landscape for the defenders and allows for the realization of cyber situational awareness, including the projection of ongoing attacks. In this paper, we explore the use of data mining, namely sequential rule mining, in the analysis of intrusion detection alerts. We employed a dataset of 12 million alerts from 34 intrusion detection systems in 3 organizations gathered in an alert sharing platform, and processed it using our analytical framework. We execute the mining of sequential rules that we use to predict security events, which we utilize to create a predictive blacklist. Thus, the recipients of the data from the sharing platform will receive only a small number of alerts of events that are likely to occur instead of a large number of alerts of past events. The predictive blacklist has the size of only 3 % of the raw data, and more than 60 % of its entries are shown to be successful in performing accurate predictions in operational, real-world settings
Legal Remedies Against Grant Decisions
Get PDFThis contribution deals with grant procedures in the Czech Republic, in particular with grants from the European Structural and Investment Funds. The main aim of the article is to examine possible legal remedies that can be used by grant applicants in case of adverse decisions. There is no separate legal act dealing solely with grant procedures in the Czech Republic. Therefore, this contribution analyses the relation between Act No. 218/2000 Coll., Budgetary Rules and Act No. 500/2004 Coll., Code of Administrative Procedure, with an emphasis on the amendment to Budgetary Rules which came into effect on 1st January 2018 and brought significant changes to rules governing the grant procedures. This article does not deal with the control of projects implementation nor remedies against sanctions for the breach of budgetary discipline. The methods of description, analysis, comparison and synthesis are used for writing this contribution
The Myanmar Conflict : A Role of Cyberspace in Counterinsurgency
Get PDFThe article analyses the Myanmar internal conflict from cybersecurity prism combined with counterinsurgency (COIN) approaches. It assesses the role of cyberspace in the state´s COIN conduct and concludes that cyberspace has played a big role in the prolonged conflict, directly and indirectly inciting violence against minorities and as such the state´s COIN approach has failed.Článek se zabývá spojením pohledů kybernetické bezpečnosti a protipovstalectví (COIN) na případu interního konfliktu v Myanmaru. Zkoumá, jakou roli kyberprostor a zejména nenávistný obsah na Facebooku hrál v přímém i nepřímém zažehnutí násilí proti minoritám a uzavírá, že jako takový státní protipovstalecký postup selhal
Library advocacy ve vysokoškolské knihovně
Get PDFWebinář představuje zákadní dílčí oblasti konceptu library advocacy a možnosti jeho využití ve vysokoškolských knihovnách. Věnuje se představení principů celého konceptu a dále jeho rozdělení na praxi library advocacy od knihovny samotné a od jejich stakeholderů. Dále je prostor věnován hodnotám, které vysokoškolská knihovna vytváří. Následují ukázky kampaní ze zahraničních knihoven v souladu s dobrou praxí library advocacy
SoK: Contemporary Issues and Challenges to Enable Cyber Situational Awareness for Network Security
Get PDFCyber situational awareness is an essential part of cyber defense that allows the cybersecurity operators to cope with the complexity of today's networks and threat landscape. Perceiving and comprehending the situation allow the operator to project upcoming events and make strategic decisions. In this paper, we recapitulate the fundamentals of cyber situational awareness and highlight its unique characteristics in comparison to generic situational awareness known from other fields. Subsequently, we provide an overview of existing research and trends in publishing on the topic, introduce front research groups, and highlight the impact of cyber situational awareness research. Further, we propose an updated taxonomy and enumeration of the components used for achieving cyber situational awareness. The updated taxonomy conforms to the widely-accepted three-level definition of cyber situational awareness and newly includes the projection level. Finally, we identify and discuss contemporary research and operational challenges, such as the need to cope with rising volume, velocity, and variety of cybersecurity data and the need to provide cybersecurity operators with the right data at the right time and increase their value through visualization
Early Warning Signals of Military Coups : A Case Study of Montenegro
Get PDFThe following paper focuses on the identification of basic early warning signals of military coups. The primary purpose is to use a theoretical framework of coups and create a list of factors that increase the probability of upcoming or ongoing military coups. This list will be applied to a case study of Montenegro, which recently experienced an attempt of overthrowing its government.Tento text je zaměřen na identifikaci základních signálů, které by mohly varovat před vojenským pučem. Jeho hlavním smyslem je na bázi teoretického rámce vojenských pučů vymezit faktory, které zvyšují pravděpodobnost blížícího se a proběhnuvšího vojenského převratu v zemi. Vytvořené schéma a seznam faktorů budou aplikovány v rámci jednopřípadové studie na nedávný pokus o puč v Černé Hoře
Crisis and Transformation : The Aftermath of First Contact in Three Mid-20th Century Science Fiction Novels
Get PDFDespite being a hallmark of science fiction since the inception of the genre, narratives that feature first contact scenarios between humans and alien civilizations became particularly popular in the middle of the twentieth century. Critical analyses have long neglected the uniqueness of first contact narratives in this period, especially their clear ‘mentorship-like’ rather than ‘invasionlike’ nature and the invariable transformation of humanity that follows the event. This article attempts to fill this gap in the research by comparing how the aftermath of first contact is treated in novels by the ‘Big Three’ of science fiction: Arthur C. Clarke (Childhood's End, 1953), Robert A. Heinlein (Stranger in a Strange Land, 1961), and Isaac Asimov (The Gods Themselves, 1972). The article argues that the structure of first contact in these narratives is deliberately crafted to appeal to both contemporary cultural (mainly Cold War related) anxieties, and to hard-wired biological biases. In each of the novels discussed, this transformation sees humanity, through various means, become more like the aliens. This change results in a type of hyper-sociality, which can be viewed in a positive or negative light depending on the narrative context, the conflicting attitudes towards communality and individualism, and the contemporary zeitgeist of the Cold War. In addition to a close reading of the three texts, the article also employs a sentiment analysis, with the help of Matthew Jockers’ ‘syuzhet’ package, in order to uncover the emotional valence of the transformation underlying the trope
Inventář tendence k vině a hanbě (ITVAH) : pilotní studie
Get PDFTato studie je pilotáží nové metody pro měření náchylnosti k prožívání viny a hanby, Inventáře tendence k vině a hanbě (ITVAH). ITVAH je metoda založená na použití scénářů, která rozlišuje afektivní a behaviorální složky těchto dispozic a zároveň zohledňuje soukromé, resp. veřejné prožívání viny a hanby. Pro každý z 16 scénářů byly vytvořeny dvě položky – afektivní a behaviorální reakce, čímž vzniklo celkem 32 položek. Byl předpokládán čtyřfaktorový model měření – Negativní hodnocení chování (NHCh), Náprava, Negativní hodnocení self (NHS) a Únik. Dále byla předpokládána negativní souvislost NHS a Úniku se sebehodnocením a tendencí k sebeodpuštění a pozitivní souvislost NHCh a Nápravy s tendencí k sebeodpuštění. Pilotní studie proběhla na vzorku 249 česky mluvících dospělých (67 % žen, věk 18–75, Md = 22). Na základě ordinální konfirmační faktorové analýzy se zohledněním reziduálních kovariancí mezi položkami vztahujících se ke stejnému scénáři jsme zjistili akceptovatelnou shodu předpokládaného modelu s daty. Pro předpokládané souvislosti se sebehodnocením a tendencí k sebeodpuštění jsme však získali pouze částečnou oporu, v rozporu s teoretickým očekáváním jsme zjistili středně silný negativní vztah mezi tendencí k sebeodpuštění a afektivní složkou viny. Pro širší používání této metody v československém prostředí je důležité dále ověřit konstruktovou validitu metody společně s ověřením souběžné validity s The Test Of Self-Conscious Affect-3 (TOSCA-3).This paper constitutes a pilot study of a novel measure for assessing proneness to guilt and proneness to shame, Inventář tendence k vině a hanbě (ITVAH, Inventory of Proneness to Guilt and Shame). ITVAH is a scenario-based method distinguishing affective and behavioural components of guilt and shame and also considering the private or public experience of guilt and shame, respectively. Two items (affective and behavioural reaction) were created for each of the 16 scenarios, resulting in total of 32 items. A four-factor measurement model was assumed – Negative behaviour evaluation (NBE), Reparation, Negative self-evaluation (NSE), Withdrawal. Next, we assumed negative correlations of NSE and Withdrawal with self-esteem and self-forgiveness and positive correlations of NBE and Reparation with self-forgiveness. The pilot study was carried out on 249 Czech-speaking adults (67 % women, aged 18–75, Md = 22). An ordinal confirmatory factor analysis with residual covariances between items connected to the same scenarios was conducted. The hypothesized four-factor model was found acceptable. However, we found limited evidence for the hypothesized relationships with self-esteem and self-forgiveness – in contrast to theoretical expectations we found a medium-strong negative relationship between self-forgiveness and affective component of guilt. For further use of the measure in the Czech and Slovak environment it is necessary to assess additional evidence of construct validity and concurrent validity with The Test of Self-Conscious Affect-3 (TOSCA-3)