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Understanding drivers of sorghum variety adoption and seed supply pathways in market-linked systems in lower Eastern Kenya: value-chain actor engagement
No full text24 page
Advanced spatial analytics for policy support: Use cases from One CGIAR
No full textThe CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations (“Policy Program”) is committed to driving transformation across Food, Land, and Water (FLW) systems. Identifying viable policies and investment options through Foresight and Prioritization exercises (Area of Work 1) is key to reaching this goal. However, prioritizing interventions that are relevant to local needs and conditions, while addressing global drivers and megatrends that affect FLW systems across different scales remains a challenge. This report seeks to address this challenge. It demonstrates how spatial analytics, a fast-evolving field that sits at the intersection of economics, public policy, geography, and data science, can provide actionable policy insights. It also aims to equip policymakers and partners with advanced and accessible spatial analytical tools to design and implement tailored policies, investments and programs. The report starts by providing a unified framework that brings together diverse spatial analytics approaches to support policy. It reviews the evolution of spatial analytics, spanning geographic information systems (GIS), spatial economics, and economic models with spatially explicit inputs and outputs. It also introduces a taxonomy of building blocks to illustrate how different spatial tools and methods can address various policy questions. This report draws on 11 use cases from across CGIAR centers in which spatial analytics have been applied to inform policies across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It demonstrates how spatial analytics can identify priority intervention areas and appropriate actions at the local level while accounting for global drivers. Key challenges in scaling spatial analytics for policy application are also identified, including data gaps, methodological complexities, and computational constraints. The report concludes by outlining future directions to fully leverage spatial analytics for policy support. This report aims to advance the integration of spatial analytics across disciplines and scales, enabling the translation of local spatial patterns into regional and global policy frameworks. The curated use cases show that spatial analytics is no longer a niche technical exercise, but an operational tool that facilitates FLW systems transformation towards desirable futures. By systematically linking spatial heterogeneity to multi-scale policy needs, spatial analytics can generate actionable and scalable insights for policy development and implementation.11 page
Rural land rental markets in developing countries: can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?
No full textA longstanding puzzle in the African land rental market literature is the often-observed discrepancy between the number of tenants (renters-in) and the much smaller number of landlords (renters-out) in survey data. If this discrepancy derives from systematic biases in survey data responses on rental market participation, then the existing body of survey-based empirical work on land rental markets impacts may be fundamentally flawed. To examine this issue, we implemented two survey experiments. First, we tested the hypothesis that some categories of rented land are underreported because enumerators and respondents focus primarily on parcels directly managed or cultivated by the household. A random subset of respondents received a priming nudge reminding them to account for all land, including rented- or sharecropped-in and rented- or sharecropped-out parcels. Second, we tested whether households underreport rented- or sharecropped-out land due to reluctance to disclose activities that may carry social or institutional repercussions, using a double-list experiment to infer true rates of participation. Interestingly, our results indicate a significant underreporting of both renting-in and renting-out land but arising through different mechanisms. The priming nudge increased reports of renting-/sharecropping-in by 4 percentage points (equivalent to 13% of landlords in the sample) but had negligible effects on reported renting-/sharecropping-out. By contrast, the list experiment suggests that the true share of renting-out households is about 15%: much higher than the 3% in parcel-roster responses. These results underscore the need for improved survey methods to accurately observe land rental market participation and evaluate its impact
Delineating profit gaps in rice and wheat production: evidence from India’s economically marginalized region
No full textMost farms in the Global South are small family farms and supporting these in generating ideal profits is critical for reducing poverty. We study the state of Bihar, the poorest in India where approximately 100 million people source their food and income from farms smaller than two hectares. Our research assesses the profit efficiencies achieved by smallholders in rice and wheat production and examine the variation in profit efficiencies across different farm sizes and geographical regions of the state. Applying single-step stochastic profit frontier analysis with data from 4016 randomly selected farmers, we estimate profit potential and identify sources of profit inefficiency. Spatial mapping with profit efficiency scores helps visualize differences and pattern within the state. The findings reveal that high planting cost in wheat and high harvesting costs in rice and wheat reduce profit efficiency. Additionally, excessive rainfall in August and higher temperature in November impede profit efficiency of rice and wheat, respectively. The biggest source of inefficiency in rice and wheat production is costly diesel-driven irrigation system. Our estimates suggest that closing profit efficiency gaps can increase smallholder profits by 38% in rice and 35% in wheat. Identifying strategies to close profit gaps in smallholder settings and agriculture-led economies is crucial for informing interventions that alleviate rural poverty
A manual of soil health management for extension workers and farmer trainers in Malawi
No full text39 page
Sparse testcrossing for early-stage genomic prediction of GCA to increase genetic gain in maize hybrid breeding programs
No full text21 slide
Mitigating the challenges of transboundary viral disease in Sub Saharan Africa – Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN): A global model to stop transboundary plant disease threats and secure Africa’s maize future
No full text16 slide
Mango under climate change scenarios: Evaluating temperaturebased suitability across elevation gradients of Nepal
No full textMango (Mangifera indica L.) has been grown predominantly in southern plains of Nepal. Climate change is expected to affect vegetation including its impact on mango phenology. To investigate how future climate affect mango suitability in Nepal, thresholds of bioclimatic variables such as Bio5 and Bio6 were set based on available literatures and related climate projections of 30 years’ time interval, were sourced from CHELSA platform. This constitutes the near current (1981-2010) as baseline for this study, and near future (2011-2040), mid-century (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100) timeframes for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and climate forcing scenarios (SSP1- 2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Utilizing geospatial layers of the bioclimatic variables, currently available land cover map and digital elevation model (DEM), the change in suitable area and elevation for mango were mapped for Nepal. The results suggest that elevated temperature across different climate projection scenarios will increase additional mango suitable area up to 35.9 percent during end century from near current and extend suitability to higher elevation, ranging from additional 89.02 m in SSP1-2.6 of near future to 502.67 m in SSP5-8.5 of end century. The increment in suitability will further differ across elevation ranges and provinces, Karnali witnessing the highest rate of change in suitable area in all scenarios. The upward extension of suitability in the changed climatic conditions for Nepal’s has implications in future fruit zoning and climate adaptation planning. This also demands further research on integration of this tropical fruit in the existing farming systems where mango cultivation was not in practice.16 page
Impact of production- and consumption-oriented interventions on crop varietal adoption: cluster-randomized controlled trial evidence from Northern Nigeria
No full textThis paper evaluates the impact of three interventions (seed trial packs, consumption-oriented interventions, and agricultural training, either individually or bundled) in improving varietal turnover in northern Nigeria via a 3-year cluster-randomized controlled trial. A secondary objective of the paper is to evaluate the performance of these varieties in farmers’ fields. Results show that seed trial packs increased adoption of promoted varieties by 42%–44% of farmers and 42%–47% of maize and cowpea land area. Farmers rated production, processing, marketing, and consumption characteristics of these varieties very highly. Yields on plots with promoted varieties were significantly higher than those of farmers’ traditional varieties, ranging from 16% to 25% more for maize and 70% for cowpea in the first season, with observed yields persisting in the second season.1009-102
