CIMMYT Publications Repository
Not a member yet
7809 research outputs found
Sort by
Impacts of fall Armyworm, groundnut rosette, and soybean rust diseases on smallholder welfare and the effectiveness of control strategies
No full textSmallholder farmers in Malawi and Zambia face significant challenges to their food security and welfare owing to the increasing prevalence of crop pests and diseases, such as the fall armyworm (FAW), groundnut rosette virus (GRV), and soybean rust. As climate change is projected to exacerbate these threats, understanding their impact and identifying effective control strategies is crucial. This study aims to determine the impact of these pests on crop yields, household income, and food security, as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of various control strategies using survey data from 1100 farmers in Malawi and Zambia. The descriptive results show that approximately 70% of the farmers experience FAW attacks in their maize fields, approximately 28% experience rosette in their groundnuts, and 40% of the farmers report soybean rust infestations. The econometric results show that FAW, rosette, and soybean rust result in 13.5%, 27.2%, and 25.2% yield loss in maize, groundnuts, and soybean, respectively. We also find that the FAW negatively affects income and food security. While rust, rosette, and their combination had no significant effect on income and food security, their combination with FAW led to a greater negative impact than the FAW alone. Although farmers employ multiple strategies to control these pests/diseases, we find evidence, albeit not robust to different estimation strategies, that pesticides, crop rotation, and the use of improved seeds aid in reducing the negative effect of pests/diseases on crop yields. These findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that can inform policies and interventions aimed at enhancing food security and supporting resilient farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa
Global shocks and local sellers: Kenyan fertilizer markets' response to the fuel-fertilizer-food price crisis
No full textGlobal fertilizer prices doubled during the 2020-2022 fuel-fertilizer-food crisis, pushing an additional 210 million people into acute food insecurity. We use transaction-level data from agro-dealers to analyze how this global shock transmitted through Kenyan retail markets. How global price shocks spread across rural markets to affect firms and farmers in low-income countries remains poorly understood. We show that retail fertilizer prices in Kenya rose 81% on average during the crisis, with remarkable spatial variation ranging from 5% decreases to 138% increases across shops. We use dyadic panel analysis to identify changes in price transmission and in market integration across Kenyan fertilizer retailers and to evaluate the effects of government policy intervention. We find evidence of asymmetric price transmission; agro-dealer prices responded faster to import price increases than decreases. We show that larger shops and major agricultural production zones experienced faster price transmission and stronger integration with import markets relative to high-poverty areas. Kenya's National Fertilizer Subsidy Program slowed price transmission but may have prolonged higher fertilizer retail prices. Our results imply that farmers do not benefit as rapidly from input price reductions as they would under symmetric transmission. Our results also demonstrate that global shocks transmit unevenly across markets, suggesting effective stabilization policies should account for heterogeneity in market conditions and variable pass-through behavior
Chapter 20. What do we know about the future of food systems in South Asia?
No full textMicronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups. • The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports. • Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks o the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land. • Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples such as rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow. • Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, such as pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.115-12
Unveiling the heterosis pattern of modern maize breeding in Southwest China through population structure and genetic diversity analysis
No full textMaize (Zea mays L.) is an important food crop throughout the world and is also one of the earliest crops to use heterosis. In this study, we evaluated the genetic diversity, population structure, and selective sweep of 100 elite inbred maize lines collected from the current breeding program in Sichuan province, Southwest China, using 5,261,175 high-quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We discovered an abundance of genetic diversities and classified them into four groups. By combining kinship relationships, these groups were further divided into Tropic-local A, Improved-tropic, Tropic-local B, and Improved-local. Genomic differentiation was assessed using Fst values (0.21-0.44) as well as genetic diversity (pi = 6.07 x 10-4 - 6.61 x 10-4). We generated 900 (90 x 10) hybrids using 90 and 10 inbred maize lines from 100 diverse maize germplasms. All hybrids were evaluated for 10 traits in three replicate tests across two locations. We found that the patterns of G1 x G3, G1 x G4, G2 x G3, and G3 x G4 exhibited significant heterosis in yield-related traits and have been used in commercial breeding. In addition, we also explored the relationship between 10 traits of hybrid offspring and the number of heterozygous SNP. Under most heterosis modes, the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) value of the trait was highly consistent with the trend of deleterious SNPs, but there was a deviation in the G1 x G3 mode. Taken together, the results provide insight into the utilization of the current maize germplasm in Sichuan province to improve hybrid breeding
Metabolic marker-assisted genomic prediction improves hybrid breeding
No full textHybrid breeding is widely acknowledged as the most effective method for increasing crop yield, particularly in maize and rice. However, a major challenge in hybrid breeding is the selection of desirable combinations from the vast pool of potential crosses. Genomic selection (GS) has emerged as a powerful tool to tackle this challenge, but its success in practical breeding depends on prediction accuracy. Several strategies have been explored to enhance prediction accuracy for complex traits, such as the incorporation of functional markers and multi-omics data. Metabolome-wide association studies (MWAS) help to identify metabolites that are closely linked to phenotypes, known as metabolic markers. However, the use of preselected metabolic markers from parental lines to predict hybrid performance has not yet been explored. In this study, we developed a novel approach called metabolic marker-assisted genomic prediction (MM_GP), which incorporates significant metabolites identified from MWAS into GS models to improve the accuracy of genomic hybrid prediction. In maize and rice hybrid populations, MM_GP outperformed genomic prediction (GP) for all traits, regardless of the method used (genomic best linear unbiased prediction or extreme gradient boosting). On average, MM_GP demonstrated 4.6% and 13.6% higher predictive abilities than GP for maize and rice, respectively. MM_GP could also match or even surpass the predictive ability of M_GP (integrated genomic-metabolomic prediction) for most traits. In maize, the integration of only six metabolic markers significantly associated with multiple traits resulted in 5.0% and 3.1% higher average predictive ability compared with GP and M_GP, respectively. With advances in high-throughput metabolomics technologies and prediction models, this approach holds great promise for revolutionizing genomic hybrid breeding by enhancing its accuracy and efficiency
Africa Dryland Crops Improvement Network
No full textThe Africa Dryland Crops Improvement Network (ADCIN), established in August 2023, is a collaborative network initiated after a consultation meeting in Senegal in February 2022 and a network members’ meeting in Ghana in January 2023. It comprises more than 17 countries and over 200 scientists in various agricultural disciplines and organizations. Our vision is to create a dynamic and sustainable network for improving dryland crops in Africa by leveraging and enhancing the collective strengths of its members to accelerate farmers’ access to improved crop varieties.2 page
Feeding a fast-growing population by 2050 through accelerated agricultural transformation: potential avenues for Ethiopia
No full textIn recent years, Ethiopia has recorded noteworthy progress in boosting agricultural productivity. Compared with many countries in Africa, Ethiopia’s achievement has been remarkable, especially considering the dire historical challenges, marked by the devastating famine in the 1980s. Despite notable strides in enhancing food production across the country, a significant segment of the population continues to face persistent food insecurity. The agricultural sector struggles to generate sufficient output to match the pace of population growth, facing challenges such as low yield, limited arable land, high population density intensified by persistently high fertility, environmental degradation, climate change, and water scarcity. Ethiopia stands at the forefront of Africa’s burgeoning population growth, with an estimated population of 213 million by mid-century, compared to 120 million people in 2023. In this chapter, we explore potential avenues for accelerated agricultural transformation. Our goal is to propose strategies that can enhance productivity, encourage off-farm employment opportunities, and augment agricultural output through value addition. We particularly emphasize the importance of land consolidation, inclusive structural changes in the agricultural sector, and a vibrant non-agricultural sector to absorb excess rural labour. Although this chapter primarily focuses on Ethiopia, we draw inferences and offer insights for other African countries where relevant.35-4
Asociación de índices de vegetación RGB con rendimiento y dosis de nitrógeno en trigo harinero
No full textEl trigo (Triticum aestivum) es un cultivo industrial de primera importancia para México, autosuficiente en la producción de trigo cristalino, pero con déficit de 5 200 000 T anuales de trigo harinero. Esta problemática es multifactorial, algunos de los componentes más importantes son el diferencial entre el rendimiento actual y potencial, así como el manejo deficiente de la fertilización nitrogenada. El objetivo de esta investigación fue determinar si existe correlación significativa entre el Índice de Vegetación estimado a partir de ortofotos en luz visible con el rendimiento y las necesidades de nitrógeno del trigo harinero, para complementar o reemplazar el índice NDVI obtenido con el sensor infrarrojo Greenseeker™, y contribuir con ello a la nutrición racional de las plantas. Se cultivó la variedad Alondra F2014 en Celaya, Guanajuato, México, y se aplicaron 6 tratamientos de fertilización nitrogenada (0 kg/ha a 300 kg/ha de nitrógeno, en incrementos de 60 kg) bajo un diseño de bloques completos al azar con tres repeticiones, durante los ciclos de cultivo OI 2021-2022 y OI 2022-2023. Las variables estimadas fueron rendimiento de grano, los índices de vegetación GLI, TGI, VARI, GRVI y RGBVI, calculados sobre ortofotos construidas a partir de imágenes obtenidas por un vehículo aéreo no tripulado, y el índice NDVI como testigo, medido con el sensor GreenSeeker™; todos ellos estimados semanalmente a partir de 20 d después de la siembra y hasta el inicio de la madurez fisiológica. Los resultados demuestran altos coeficientes de correlación ≥ 0.90 entre todas las variables; y altos coeficientes de determinación, promedio en la etapa de encañe inicial de 0.80 a 0.91 entre los índices RGB y NDVI, y (R2) ≥ 0.86 entre índices VIV con el rendimiento. Los índices VIV, especialmente VARI, pueden emplearse en lugar del NDVI como herramienta para identificar eficientemente las necesidades del cultivo.Wheat (Triticum aestivum) is an industrial crop of primary importance for Mexico, selfsufficient in the production of durum wheat, but with a deficit of 5 200 000 T of bread wheat per year. This problem is multifactorial, some of the most important components are the difference between current and potential yield, as well as poor management of nitrogen fertilization. The objective of this research was to determine if there is a significant correlation between Vegetation Indices estimated from visible light orthophotos with the yield and nitrogen needs of bread wheat to complement or replace the NDVI indices obtained with the GreenseekerTM infrared sensor, and thus contribute to the rational nutrition of plants. For this purpose, the Alondra F2014 variety was grown in Celaya, Guanajuato, Mexico and six nitrogen fertilization treatments were applied (0 kg/ha to 300 kg/ha of nitrogen, in increments of 60 kg) under a randomized complete block design with three repetitions, during the FW 2021-2022 and FW 2022-2023 crop cycles. The estimated variables were grain yield, the GLI, TGI, VARI, GRVI and RGBVI vegetation indices, calculated on orthophotos constructed from images obtained by an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, and the NDVI indices as a control, measured with the GreenSeekerTM sensor; all of them were estimated weekly from 20 d after sowing and until physiological maturity. The results show high correlation coefficients, >= 0.90 between all variables, and high coefficients of determination average at the tillage stage from 0.80 to 0.91 between RGB and NDVI indices and (R2) >= 0.86 between VIV indices and yield. Therefore, VIV indices, especially VARI, can be used instead of NDVI as a tool to efficiently identify crop needs.176-18
Farm differentiation and intervention targeting in Mixed Farming Systems of Coastal and Inland Bangladesh
No full textMultiple stakeholders use farm and farmer attributes such as land size and experience to select participants and beneficiaries for agricultural interventions. Such criterion often ensures project success and impact but potentially widens inequality if uncoordinated. In South Asia, despite the general improvement in farm productivity, not all farmers have benefited and wide variability in performance persist. Over past decades, vertical research-extension-farmer innovation transfer approaches have evolved to enable increased and direct interactions among researchers, extension, private sector and farmers. Horizontal participatory approaches have facilitated co-creation and codesign of interventions tailored to specific farmer segments. This study demonstrates how participatory workshops can be used to segment different farm typologies and design targeted strategies. Bangladesh is used as a cast study example for diverse intensification strategies due to regional variations in cropping systems driven by environmental and resource constraints. In the South, farmers are often limited to single-season rice cultivation due to flooding, salinity, irrigation, and land tenure challenges while in the North, diverse cropping patterns are enabled by better resource access and stronger markets. Using the approaches described in this report, organizations can design interventions to address specific regional challenges, such as soil quality issues in the North and salinity problems in the South. Economic conditions can dictate cropping intensity: limited finances may constrain farmers in southern Bangladesh, while those in the north can optimize crop choices for better returns. This study provides a methodological approach that can enhance innovation targeting given these differing circumstances by combining broad strategies for wide adoption with tailored approaches for specific farmer segments. While generalized strategies may enable mass adoption, they also have negatives, namely that they can overlook local variations and potentially worsen inequalities, highlighting the need for coordinated efforts to meet the diverse needs of farming communities.20 page
Los roles de las mujeres en el control de plagas y enfermedades de cultivos: Una revisión de la literatura
No full textPara mantener y aumentar la productividad, la rentabilidad y la resiliencia de los sistemas agroalimentarios es importante contar con un manejo eficiente de control de plagas y enfermedades. Esta problemática sigue afectando muchas comunidades rurales, especialmente de pequeña escala, provocando efectos negativos sobre la seguridad alimentaria de los productores. Por ello, es importante desarrollar y escalar, tecnologías y prácticas integradas sostenibles y sensibles al género para el de control de las plagas y enfermedades. Las mujeres participan en el control de las plagas y enfermedades de los cultivos y desempeñan papeles clave en diferentes actividades agrícolas. Sin embargo, su participación es subestimada debido a normas sociales y culturales, barreras institucionales y mediciones imprecisas que exacerban las brechas de género entre hombres y mujeres al restringir el acceso a recursos y activos que permitirían aumentar los rendimientos en las producciones agrícolas. El presente informe técnico sintetiza la revisión de artículos y literatura gris que abordan la evidencia existente sobre la participación de las mujeres en el control y manejo de plagas y enfermedades en la producción agrícola. Específicamente, identifica roles y diferencias de género en el control de plagas y enfermedades, señala preferencias tecnológicas para esta tarea y las razones subyacentes a las mismas y los obstáculos que enfrentan. Se concluye que es posible que las distinciones entre las preferencias de los hombres y las mujeres no se expliquen en términos de preferencias sino de limitaciones en la capacidad de elección por parte de estas últimas.20 page