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Statistical modelling of spatio-temporal rainfall trends, dependence, and extremes in Zimbabwe (1984–2024)
No full textUnderstanding the spatio-temporal variability of extreme rainfall is critical for climate adaptation and for informed water-resource planning in Zimbabwe. This study develops a unified statistical framework to: (1) characterize annual rainfall variability and detect monotonic trends; (2) model extreme rainfall events via block maxima and peaks-over-threshold methods and quantify their long-range dependence; (3) assess the spatial autocorrelation patterns of rainfall across provinces; and (4) explore inter-provincial rainfall dynamics using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Monthly rainfall totals for ten provinces (1984–2024) were retrieved from NASA POWER at provincial centroids. Descriptive statistics reveal a pronounced east–west gradient in mean annual rainfall (390.1 mm in Manicaland; 190.8 mm in Matabeleland South) and variability (Standard deviation up to 147 mm in Manicaland). The Mann–Kendall and block-bootstrap tests indicate no significant monotonic trends (all 0.16), suggesting stationary annual totals over the study period. Extreme-value analysis shows uniformly positive Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) shape parameters (for example) with anomalously large estimates in Harare and the Midlands; Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) fits yield moderate heavy-tails () and scale parameters of 5.6–9.9 mm. Detrended fluctuation analysis produces Hurst exponents (0.25–0.35), indicating anti-persistence and mean-reversion in extreme-rainfall maxima. Spatial autocorrelation metrics (Global Moran’s I = 0.266; Geary’s) confirm significant clustering. Local Moran’s I identifies northeastern hot-spots and southwestern cold-spots. A VAR(2) model—selected via minimum Akaike Information Criterion/Bayesian Information Criterion (also known as the Schwarz Criterion)(AIC/BIC)—highlights significant two-month persistence in Manicaland (,) and one-month memory in Matabeleland North (,). These findings reveal heterogeneous heavy-tailed behaviour, mean-reversion, and spatial clustering in Zimbabwe’s rainfall extremes, underscoring the need for region-specific risk assessments and infrastructure design tailored to local hydro-climatic regimes
Narratives of maternal mental health challenges and opportunities among African immigrant women in Cape Town
No full textMaternal mental health challenges are a critical aspect of women’s reproductive health that occurs in the perinatal period—during pregnancy and after giving birth. The condition is characterised by the onset of mental illnesses such as depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and, in some cases, substance abuse disorder. Maternal mental health challenges affect the quality of care that affected mothers provide for their children; it impacts their ability to function properly, cope with the everyday demands of life, and also affects the quality of life of the mothers themselves. Despite the seriousness and prevalence of maternal mental health conditions among women of reproductive age, as established by many studies before this one, the situation receives little attention in many healthcare settings in Africa. For example, in South Africa, one in three women experiences mild to severe mental health conditions during pregnancy or in the postpartum period. Such women often struggle to access adequate care, support, or the treatment they need to deal with issues that arise in the perinatal period. Poor maternal mental health among women in the perinatal period is linked to risk factors such as poverty, violence, abuse, migration, and substance abuse, among others. To provide more insight into the maternal mental health challenges in the African context, this study explores the maternal mental health experiences of African immigrant women in Cape Town (South Africa). The study rests on the assumption drawn from previous studies that ideological, structural, and socioeconomic positions of African immigrant women shape the manifestation of these conditions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the maternal mental health experiences of African immigrant women in Cape Town in terms of challenges and opportunities, by adopting a qualitative research methodology. The researcher conducted a semi-structured one-on-one in-depth interview with fifteen African immigrant women in Cape Town
Navigating space, waste and mobilities: an exploration of street waste-picker entanglements with the urban(e) and the mundane
No full textThis thesis is centred around a case of urban street waste-pickers dwelling in an affluent neighbourhood of Johannesburg. It explores the complexities of power in place to better understand the entangled processes through which power is fragmented across the urban and how place-making strategies are developed and gain materiality from the margins. Accordingly, this thesis develops the notion ‘infrastructural place-making’ as the mechanism through which street waste-pickers navigate, contribute, make sense of and are entangled within everyday spaces of the urban. This notion brings forth phenomenological dimensions such as the objectivity of the body, its lived experience and its subjective relation to urban space. In this regard, this thesis frames street waste-picker bodies as extensions of urban waste infrastructure - demonstrating how complex waste networks are sustained through: (i) navigating symbolic and material forces of exclusion; (ii) the making and unmaking of informal dwelling structures; (iii) mobilities within the streetscape and (iv) the physical labour of street waste-picker bodies themselves. These socio-material networks are often rendered invisible as movements are ephemeral, informal dwellings are developed on fringe lines of the urban and that street waste-picker bodies are not conventionally understood to be infrastructural within dominant urban imaginaries. These (in)visible relations are brought to life and given material expression through a phenomenologically informed ethnography with a research design that is qualitative, interpretive and exploratory. In doing so, this thesis navigates situated encounters with street waste-pickers in Johannesburg to reveal important patterns of (in)visibility and exclusion related to how socio-material infrastructures are made in the everyday and how the city is unevenly, and often, violently experienced. Through navigating these entanglements of power and by disentangling the lived experience(s) of street waste-pickers, ‘place’ is revealed through its entanglement with slower forms of ‘infrastructural violence’. In doing so, this thesis offers insight into how the everyday city is made, inhabited, and navigated from its margins
Physical properties and the magnetocaloric effect in Ho2Pt2In
No full textPolycrystalline samples of Ho2Pt2In were studied by means of low-temperature electrical resistivity, ρ(T), heat capacity, Cp(T), magnetic susceptibility, χ(T), and magnetization, M(H) measurements. The compound was found to undergo a paramagnetic to ferromagnetic phase transition at TC = 18 K and another phase transition at T1 = 8.3 K, likely a magnetic structure reconstruction into an antiferromagnetic-like state. Furthermore, magnetocaloric effect (MCE) in Ho2Pt2In was investigated via comprehensive inspection of magnetization isotherms collected near the magnetic phase transitions. The results revealed the second-order character of the transitions at TC and T1. The compound was found to exhibit the MCE characteristics fairly similar to those of typical magnetic refrigerant materials
Subjects and skins: Her curriculum – A collection of poems
No full textFor the mini-thesis component of my Masters in Creative Writing I aim to create a hybrid creative project that chronicles the individuation of a female protagonist from her infancy to motherhood, as it unfolds across the traditional educational and developmental phases. Throughout this metanarrative the subject's journey will be portrayed using the predominant literary form of poetry, prose poetry, as well as the conventional narrative elements of plot, theme, characterisation and point of view. Events encompassed within these developmental stages will be portrayed using lyric and prose poetry as the two main forms, although other intra-poetic forms, such as blackout, elegiac and acrostic poems, will also be used emblematically where suitable. The archetypal rebirth type within this bildungspoesie will be situated within selected Monomyth stages, adapted from Joseph Campbell’s five-point plot subsections of the hero’s journey. Within the settings of home/s and institutions (educational and health), the overarching conflict type will be person versus self, explored in a series of vignette-like chronological poems. In alignment with the respective formative phases that occur within these spaces, and from the perspective of the girl/woman subject, I will explore the following themes: education (informal versus formal), medicine (Western versus Eastern), individual complexes within the psychic structure (shadow, persona, ego, self), and female Jungian archetypes (wise old woman, child, heroine, mother, animus), as well as the mind/body dualism. Two significant poetic influences demonstrating the advancement of selfhood using personal subject matter will include the confessional poetry of Sylvia Plath and Anne Sexton. Other influences of similar theme and genre, explored from the perspective of the girl/woman subject, will include work by Ruth Miller, Genna Gardini and Petra Müller. As such, I will draw creative context from my own non-literary subject matter, such as year books, photo albums and other personal records, as well as literary works analogous in form, genre, type and theme. Overall, this semi-autobiographical creative project takes the form of an experimental, hybrid work, accompanied by a critical reflexive essay
Born too soon: progress and priorities for respectful and rights-based preterm birth care
No full textProgress: Human rights related to preterm birth encompass access to respectful, evidence-based care; informed consent; protection from discrimination, detention, and unnecessary separation of mother and newborn; and broader social entitlements, such as parental leave and early disability support. Since the 2012 Born Too Soon report, global recognition of these rights has expanded through international treaties, global guidelines, national legal reforms, and social movements. Demand for respectful care, including respectful maternity care and family centred care, has led to its incorporation into global guidelines and policies and a greater evidence-base. However, persistent challenges, such as workforce shortages, discriminatory policies, and the erosion of sexual and reproductive rights, continue to threaten progress. Programmatic Priorities: Ensuring respectful and rights-based preterm birth care requires coordinated action across the continuum of care and across sectors, with the mother–baby dyad at the centre. Programmatic priorities at the individual level include implementing respectful maternity care and family-centred care. Ensuring high-quality, respectful care demands that providers themselves are supported, protected, and empowered to deliver such care. Their well-being is a critical enabler of the rights of patients and an essential component of effective, compassionate service delivery. At the facility-level, health systems must be purposefully designed to safeguard the fundamental human rights of the individuals with them, both care seekers and care providers. Implementing respectful, rights-based care relating to preterm birth requires structural and social changes, as well as robust data systems for accountability. Multi-stakeholder action requires strengthening accountability mechanisms at all levels and partnering with those affected by preterm birth—particularly women, families and healthcare providers—in policy processes, and the design, implementation and monitoring of care. At national-level, action requires the adoption, implementation and monitoring of international and regional human rights instruments, with multisectoral collaboration and social mobilization where violations continue. Pivots: To operationalize respectful and rights-based care for preterm birth, four primary shifts are needed: scale up respectful care; empower and partner with women and families; address the shortage of healthcare providers and protect their rights; and strengthen policy action and accountability
"We are still not counted as human”: Contesting unfreedom from below in South Africa
No full textThis interview with S’bu Zikode, cofounder and current leader of Abahlali baseMjondolo, the largest popular movement to have emerged in South Africa after apartheid, was conducted a month before the 30th anniversary of the formal end of apartheid. Zikode gives an account of the arc of his life, and that of the movement, illuminating the costs of progressive political commitment in Durban, a city where political violence is routine. Zikode also explains some of the key elements of his political thought, which centers around a radicalized African humanism in which the idea of dignity is central
Dual GSK3β/SIRT1 modulators for Alzheimer’s: mechanisms, drug discovery and future perspectives
No full textAlzheimer’s disease (AD) remains without effective disease-modifying therapies, in part due to the limited efficacy of single-target approaches. Dual modulation of glycogen synthase kinase-3β (GSK3β), a key driver of tau hyperphosphorylation and amyloid-β (Aβ) production, and sirtuin-1 (SIRT1), a neuroprotective NAD+-dependent deacetylase, has emerged as a promising therapeutic strategy. This review explores the mechanistic rationale for concurrently inhibiting GSK3β and activating SIRT1 to disrupt AD’s pathological cascade while enhancing endogenous neuroprotective pathways. Natural compounds such as resveratrol, berberine, pterostilbene, and quercetin exhibit this dual activity and provide scaffolds for rational drug design. However, challenges related to target selectivity, blood-brain barrier penetration, and clinical translation persist. Advances in multi-target drug discovery, including pharmacophore hybridization, structure-based modelling, cheminformatics, nanoformulation and delivery strategies offer new avenues to overcome these hurdles. A dual GSK3β/SIRT1-targeting strategy exemplifies a systems-level approach to restoring neurophysiological balance and holds potential to achieve more effective, disease-modifying outcomes in AD
The processes of reintegration and reintegration experiences of trafficked women survivors: narratives from Lagos Nigeria and Cape Town South Africa
No full textThe effects of human trafficking are complex, cutting across all stages of trafficking from pre- trafficking to post-trafficking. Tackling this issue is challenging, due to the ongoing increase in the movement of people from one place to another. Responses to human trafficking are multifaceted, with its hidden nature making such responses a difficult task. After exiting trafficked environments, survivors face complexities that influence their return to their communities and their ability to live a normal life. The success of reintegration programmes is crucial for human trafficking survivors, yet this area has been under-researched. This study used a qualitative feminist framework to explore the complexities of the reintegration experiences of young women survivors of human trafficking from Nigeria and South Africa between the ages of 18 and 45 Using snowballing and convenience sampling methods, repeated unstructured in-depth interviews were conducted with five survivors of human trafficking from Nigeria and five from South Africa. Thematic analysis was applied to analyse the data. The findings show that multiple intersecting factors shape the reintegration experiences of these young women. Their narratives reveal how gender and other factors played a role in their reintegration experiences. Survivors reported that the rehabilitation processes at safe houses and rehabilitation centres were very strict, posing challenges for those undergoing these programmes. While nearly all the interviewed survivors expressed a desire to be assisted in returning home to their loved ones, only one participant was successfully reunited with their family. The reintegration process showed the importance of forgiveness, reconciliation and acceptance within the family for the successful reintegration of trafficking survivors. Additionally, feelings of shame and guilt and limited financial resources hindered successful reintegration into communities. Interestingly, for some survivors, the decision not to return home to their families emerged as a coping and survival strategy. This study sheds light on the often overlooked voices of women survivors of trafficking regarding their reintegration, a perspective that is frequently absent in trafficking research. Importantly, findings from this study will be critical for policy and intervention purposes
Operational solar spectral irradiance measurements from the Extreme Ultraviolet Sensor (EUVS) on the GOES-R series.
No full textBeginning in early 2017, the first of four Extreme Ultraviolet Sensor (EUVS) instruments began taking solar spectral irradiance measurements from geostationary orbit. The new series of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) operated by NOAA in the USA makes high-cadence (1 second) measurements of emission from all layers of the solar atmosphere from the photosphere up through the corona. The A channel observes 25.6 (He II), 28.4 (Fe XV), and 30.4 (He II) nm. Channel B measures 117 (C III), 121.5 (Lyman alpha), 133 (C II), and 140 (Si IV) nm, while the C channel measures the Mg II features around 280 nm. The C channel also reports the Mg II core-towing ratio. Channels A and B make 1-second integrations, while the C channel integrates over a 3-second interval. In addition, these individual measurements are combined to create an empirical model spectrum from 5 to 127 nm with a 30-second cadence. In this presentation we will describe the instruments, their calibration, the public data products, and how to retrieve the data from the NOAA web pages