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Local Socieconomic Impacts of Large-scale Mining Projects in Ecuador: The Case of Fruta del Norte
Get PDFThis study seeks to determine whether the Fruta del Norte project affected the main economic and social indicators of the Yantzaza canton, where the large-scale mining project is located. To do so, the analysis centers on key economic variables (such as business productivity and employment) and development variables (such as health and school enrollment). The specific methodology used is a synthetic control model, which enables the generation of a counterfactual for the treated canton. The findings suggest that Fruta del Norte had a positive impact on local economic activity in Yantzaza. The local economic dynamism spurred by Fruta del Norte had positive effects on local formal employment; however, increases in the rates of school dropout and adolescent pregnancy were observed
Public Opinion on Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean
No full textThis document is part of a series of studies from the Citizen Perception Laboratory on Migration. It explores the trend of public opinion regarding migration over the last 5 years in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper responds to the growing need to generate information and evidence on this issue in the region, where recent intra-regional flows have highlighted the importance of social cohesion and migration integration in host communities. Through a combination of traditional data sources, such as regional and national public opinion surveys, and non-traditional data sources, like social network analysis and media analysis, the Laboratory provides a comprehensive study of public opinion trends in the region. The document gives an insight into the issues that most influence the conversation, and generate concern among the native population, while at the same time demonstrating that despite an increase in the xenophobic content of messages on social networks, there is a neutral and sometimes contradictory sentiment towards migration in Latin America and the Caribbean. Finally, the document concludes that xenophobic attitudes and opinions can be modified. Research and experiments conducted by the laboratory show that scalable different interventions can effectively change opinions and attitudes in host communities. For instance, interventions that provide information or encourage interaction between migrants and locals can be effective at influencing people\u27s opinions on migration
Public Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Reaction Functions in Latin America and the Caribbean
Get PDFThe governments response to the COVID-19 pandemic left Latin America and the Caribbean economies with increased levels of sovereign debt as a percentage of output, bringing up the question of debt sustainability in the region. The literature has identified two testable conditions on the fiscal reaction function for debt sustainability: i) a positive response of primary balances to debt (Bohn, 1995) and ii) the response of primary balances to debt should be higher than the growth adjusted interest rate (Ghosh et al., 2013). This paper revisits these conditions, both from the theoretical and empirical perspective. It introduces a new “implicit growth” measure which is the relevant one for the debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics. It also tests empirically both conditions for economies in the region. The results suggest that debt is likely sustainable in the region, although it cannot be assured at a 95 percent confidence level. A deep look at the causes of this results pointed towards fiscal fatigue, the fact that primary balances become less responsive to debt levels the higher the latter are. At post-pandemic debt levels sustainability is far from certain. The results here indicate decisive action is required to ensure debt will fall back to prudent levels
Long-term Effects of Weather-induced Migration on Urban Labor and Housing Markets
Get PDFThis paper explores the effects of weather-induced rural-urban migration on urban labor and housing markets in Brazil. In order to identify causal effects, it uses weather shocks to the rural municipalities of origin of migrants. We show that larger migration shocks led to an increase in employment growth and a reduction in wage growth of 4 and 5 percent, respectively. The increased migration flows also affected the housing market in destination cities. On average, it led to 1 percent faster growth of the housing stock, accompanied by 5 percent faster growth in housing rents. These effects vary sharply by housing quality. We find a substantial positive effect on the growth rates of the most precarious housing units (with no effect on rents) and a negative effect on the growth of higher-quality housing units (with a positive effect on rents). This suggests that rural immigration growth slowed down housing-quality upgrading in destination cities
Telenovelas and Attitudes toward the LGBTIQ Community in Latin America
Get PDFHow does exposure to soap operas with LGBTIQ characters affect attitudes toward the LGBTIQ community? To answer this question, we construct a novel database of 175 telenovelas (soap operas) with LGBTIQ characters airing in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2002 and 2019. Exploiting variation in the introduction of new soap operas with LGBTIQ characters within country and survey-waves, we find that individuals exposed to more soap operas with LGBTIQ characters are less tolerant toward the LGBTIQ community. This short-term backlash is driven by exposure to telenovelas with homosexual characters and shows with comedic storylines. The effect is stronger among traditionally more conservative individuals (e.g., older or frequently attending religious services)
Opportunities for Boosting: Output, Employment and Value Chains: Economic Report on Central America, Mexico, Panama and the Dominican Republic
Get PDFThe current economic climate of the region is characterized by the growth that is expected to be lower than the historical average and by rising food insecurity. This adverse environment for households underscores the urgent need to focus on initiatives aimed at boosting household incomes in the countries of the region by revitalizing output and employment. With a view to identifying strategies for raising output, Chapter 2 highlights those sectors where the capacity to boost national output and employment through the latters demand for goods and services from other sectors of the economy is particularly significant. Chapter 3 examines local participation in global value chains and discusses a number of strategies aimed at promoting them. Lastly, Chapter 4 discusses a number of strategies and sectors that could help bring about greater trade diversification in the region
Challenges for Measuring the LGBT+ Population and Homophobia in Mexico
Get PDFWe contribute to understanding the challenges for estimating the size of the LGBTQ population and discriminatory sentiment against it by surveying 10,003 individuals, whom we randomize into a direct question or an Item Count Technique (ICT) elicitation group. The fractions of the population that self-identify as LGBTQ, that reports having had same-sex sexual experiences, and that has felt same-sex attraction are higher for our sample than those obtained from government surveys. However, the difference between estimates recovered from our direct questions and through the ICT does not always have the expected sign. The negative relationship between age and self-identifying as non-heterosexual is present both in the government survey and in our direct question sample but vanishes when measured with the ICT. The positive correlation between age and homophobic sentiment is present across samples and elicitation techniques. We find no significant variation in all measures for formal vs informal workers
Gender Gaps: Female Work in Cultural and Creative Sectors
Get PDFAlthough the artistic, cultural and creative sector has played an active role in making gender gaps visible, the availability of data and analysis on how they materialize specifically in the Latin American labor market is still limited. This publication seeks to contribute to solving this need, focusing on the proposal of a framework that allow us to investigate the conditions of female work specifically in six Latin American countries and prioritized sectors: performing arts, visual arts, audiovisual, music and video games in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay. The research process involved the systematization and analysis of secondary sources, as well as the collection of qualitative information, which included interviews with women leaders and researchers in the region
The Impact of a Financial Inclusion Program on Household’s Payment Choice, Savings, and Credit
Get PDFUruguay implemented an ambitious financial inclusion program that included a fiscal stimulus through VAT rebates and subsidies for point of sale (POS) adoption. One of its main provisions banned cash payment of wages and social benefits and forced financial institutions to open wage-accounts with extremely beneficial conditions. In the aggregate, the number of debit cards transactions increased sharply. We test the wage-banking channel of the financial program exploiting differences in the treatment intensity between public sector and private sector workers. We find that while the provision of bank accounts increased the number of debit cards, it had modest effects on the probability of payment with cards that are mostly produced by a more intensive use of debit cards by those who already had them before the Financial Inclusion Act went into effect. Thus, the aggregate effects must be produced by the fiscal channel of the financial inclusion program. Finally, we fail to find effects on either access to short-term credit or expenditure or savings
Post-electoral Promises and Trust in Government: A Survey Experiment on Signaling
Get PDFTransparency initiatives are well-known tools introduced to foster trust and empower citizens. To explain why some governments introduce them but others do not, in a theoretical model we interpret these initiatives as a signal that complements the information already provided by visible government performance. To analyze how citizens react to these initiatives, we conducted a randomized survey experiment in the City of Buenos Aires, Argentina, where the incumbent mayor made a set of post-electoral promises. Our results show that post-electoral promises matter in shaping citizens perceptions about the trustworthiness of the government. We find strong heterogeneity among three groups of citizens. A group unfamiliar with the policy was impervious to treatment: they seem to react to deeds, not words, and have low trust on average. The treatment effects are entirely through those vaguely familiar with the promises, closing the average gap in trust with those familiar with the promises. More generally, our study suggests that transparency initiatives may be an effective signal in a setting with some initial trust. Still their informational value may be more limited than visible public performance