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Can Conditional Cash Transfers Alter the Effectiveness of Other Human Capital Development Policies?
Get PDFCovering the full population of applicants to the Jamaican Conditional Cash Transfer Program (PATH), we explore whether receiving PATH since childhood altered the academic gains from attending a more preferred public secondary school. To uncover causal associations, we implement a double regression discontinuity design motivated by both the PATH eligibility criteria and the centralized allocation process to public secondary schools. Among girls, receiving PATH benefits did not influence the academic gains from attending a preferred school. However, boys exposed to PATH experienced significantly lower gains from preferred school attendance with respect to comparable peers who did not receive PATH. These results highlight the relevance of considering both the direct effects of conditional cash transfers and the potential indirect effects that such policies could convey through altering the effectiveness of other related policies
Hacia una mayor inclusión financiera para el desarrollo: Informe económico sobre Centroamérica, México, Panamá y República Dominicana
Get PDFIt is estimated that the region of Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic (CAPARD) will experience growth in 2024 that is below the historical average, with more stringent financial conditions. In this context, financial inclusion plays a crucial role in moderating consumption fluctuations and fostering investment. This report analyzes the prevailing conditions of credit and financial inclusion in CAPARD and, based on the analysis of the determinants of financial inclusion, proposes policies to accelerate its deepening. The focus is on National Financial Inclusion Strategies, financial education, interest rates and the competitive environment, and digital financial inclusion. Finally, the report describes the participation of the IDB Group in promoting financial inclusion in the region through a selection of its operations
Productive development policies in face of the new imperatives of global value chains
No full textThe current global landscape calls for increased resilience and sustainability of production, thus demanding changes in the operating models of Global Value Chains (GVCs). This backdrop presents the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) with great opportunities as well as complex challenges. This paper presents a conceptual framework for the design of Productive Development Policies (PDP) aimed at improving the integration of the LAC region\u27s companies in GVCs. To this end, after presenting the main dimensions of analysis for mapping GVCs and the new environmental conditions in which they operate, this paper analyzes the main public policy challenges that the countries of the LAC region are facing in order to achieve productivity gains that will enable them to not only improve their insertion in GVCs, but to also take full advantage of those dynamic productivity gains derived from participating in them. Taking into consideration this context and based on a systematization of the lessons learned from the IDB\u27s experience throughout more than twenty years of operations related to value chain development in the LAC region, the paper presents the main guidelines that should be considered when defining a PDP intervention framework focused on this purpos
Health Innovation & Technology in Latin America & the Caribbean: Market Landscape and Compendium of Companies
Get PDFCompendium of health innovation startups in the region, complementing the report of a comprehensive analysis of health startups in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), delving into the challenges, trends, and investments in the region. The comprehensive report is available at https://publications.iadb.org/en/health-innovation-technology-latin-america-caribbean
Research Insights: Can Dynamic Targeting Mechanisms Improve the Social Value of Safety Nets?
Get PDFTraditional proxy-means tests approaches to selecting beneficiaries of social programs can exhibit higher levels of exclusion errors when income fluctuates. These errors can erode the social value of a safety net. Expanding the coverage of the safety net reduces exclusion errors but entails either larger budgets or substantial reduction of benefits. A dynamic targeting approach that includes updated information on labor market and other shocks can reduce targeting errors and increase the social value of the safety net at a substantially lower cost, relative to an expansion of the safety net
The State of Fiscal Policy for Climate Action: 2023 Baseline Survey for Latin America and the Caribbean
Get PDFMinistries of economy and finance (MEFs) play an increasingly important role in the climate agenda since fiscal policy decisions have a major impact on the behaviors of economic agents and shape countries development prospects. In this context, it is helpful to establish the extent to which MEFs are mainstreaming climate action into fiscal policy, whether they are doing so comprehensively or partially, which areas of fiscal policy show the greatest progress or gaps, and which countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) show the most progress and which the least. This report seeks to address these questions through a survey conducted in 2023 on 41 variables using data available on the official websites of government agencies or international organizations. The main findings of this study are the following: (i) the vast majority of MEFs in the LAC region have made some progress on mainstreaming climate action into fiscal policy/management, although very few do so in a comprehensive manner; (ii) from a comparative standpoint, the greatest progress has been made on strategic planning, macroeconomic fiscal management, and revenue policy and management; (iii) the least progress is observed in financing policy and expenditure policy/management; and (iv) among LAC countries, the top three performers are Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica, despite major climate fiscal policy reforms pending in these countries. In conclusion, the information compiled can be useful for monitoring and evaluating future MEF actions in the area of climate change, and this report seeks to take the first step toward establishing a baseline in this regard
CIMA Brief #27: How Inequal is Learning in Latin America?: An Analysis of Socioeconomic and Indigenous Skill Gaps
No full textSocioeconomic and indigenous status contribute significantly to achievement gaps across subjects and grade levels. Mathematics gaps between low and high socioeconomic status students widen from third to sixth grade, notably in Brazil and Uruguay. Language gaps are particularly large in Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay. Indigenous sixth graders score lower than non-Indigenous peers, with the largest gaps in Costa Rica and Panama and the smallest in Honduras. A significant portion of the achievement gap between indigenous and non-indigenous students in mathematics and science is attributed to indigenous status
Impacts of a Regularization Program in Peru
Get PDFThis paper examines the impacts of a migrant regularization program implemented in Peru in 2021. We find that the regularization process positively impacted migrant integration through labor outcomes (access to a written contract and increased income), social outcomes, and access to health services. The results of this study provide evidence of the importance of regularization programs for migrant populations and their impacts on well-being and productive integration in a context of high employment informality and limited public service coverage. The lessons learned are essential not only for developing countries where unexpected migratory flows have made regularization processes common but also for similar south-south movements, where the presence of migrants can pose unique challenges for host societies
AI and the Increase of Productivity and Labor Inequality in Latin America: Potential Impact of Large Language Models on Latin American Workforce
Get PDFWe assess the potential effect of large language models (LLMs) on the labor markets of Chile, Mexico, and Peru using the methodology of Eloundou et al. (2023). This approach involves detailed guidelines (rubrics) for each job to assess whether access to LMM software would reduce the time required for workers to complete their daily tasks. Adapting this methodology to the Latin American context necessitated developing a comprehensive crosswalk between the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) and regional occupational classifications, SINCO-2011 and ISCO-2008. When we use this adaptation, the theoretical average task exposure of occupations under these classifications is 32% and 31% for each classification. Recognizing the unique characteristics of each country\u27s labor market, we refined these ratings to reflect better each nation\u27s capacity to adopt and effectively implement new technologies. After these adjustments, the task exposure for SINCO-2011 drops to 27% and for ISCO-2008 to 23%. These adjusted exposure ratings provide a more accurate depiction of the real-world implications of LLM integration in the Latin American context. According to this methodology, the LLM-powered exposure using GPT-4 estimates suggests that the percentage of jobs with task exposure exceeding 10% is 74% in Mexico, 76% in Chile, and 76% in Peru. When we raise the exposure threshold to 40% or more, the proportion of affected occupations significantly decreases to 9% in Mexico, 20% in Chile, and 6% in Peru. The exposure is close to zero after this threshold. In other words, the exposure would only affect less than half of the total labor force in these countries. Further analysis of exposure by socioeconomic conditions indicates higher exposure among women, individuals with higher education, formal employees, and higher-income groups. This suggests a potential increase in labor inequality in the region due to adopting this technology. Our findings highlight the need for targeted policy interventions and adaptive strategies to ensure that the transition to an AI-enhanced labor market benefits all socio-economic groups and minimizes disruptions
Evidence in Labor Market Policies and Implications for Brazil: Microcredit
Get PDFThis publication, co-authored by JOI Brazil, a J-PAL LAC initiative, and the Inter-American Development Bank analyzes the available evidence on microcredit programs and discusses their implications for public policy formulation in Brazil. Microcredit programs can be a tool to help entrepreneurs overcome financial constraints by providing access to small loans aimed at fostering growth and alleviating poverty through increased income-generating opportunities. However, despite the global popularity of these programs, evaluations in middle- and low-income countries indicate that the provision of microcredit has not always led to significant impacts on the income and consumption of their beneficiaries, nor has it consistently promoted high-return investments. Given this, it is essential to identify the most relevant characteristics of successful programs