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Opposition electoral strategies against democratic backsliding:the United for Hungary coalition and its 2022 primaries
No full textHow do opposition actors react to democratic backsliding? Using interviews with party elites and nationally representative survey data, this article explores the motivations behind the formation of the six-party “United for Hungary” coalition and the selection of candidates through primaries open to the whole Hungarian electorate, in the run-up of the 2022 general elections. We find that democratic erosion is at the core of opposition parties’ decision to run under the United for Hungary banner and one of the most important drivers of individuals’ participation in the United for Hungary primaries. Our interviews with opposition party elites show that the decision to run in a coalition was guided by pragmatic reasons originating in the electoral constraints they face after years of democratic backsliding in Hungary. Furthermore, participation in the primaries and electoral support for the coalition is associated with pro-democratic attitudes, dissatisfaction with democracy and experiences of non-electoral participation. Based on our analysis, we argue that democratic erosion leads opposition parties in two directions. First, they are encouraged to run together in ideologically diverse coalitions. Second, they are more likely to incorporate social movement-like characteristics. Furthermore, we argue that these changes go in line with the preferences of their electorates
Use of mobile phone data to measure behavioral response to SMS evacuation alerts
No full textThis study examines behavioral responses after mobile phone evacuation alerts during the February 2024 wildfires in Valparaíso, Chile. Using anonymized mobile network data from 580,000 devices, we analyze population movement following emergency SMS notifications. Results reveal three key patterns: (1) initial alerts trigger immediate evacuation responses with connectivity dropping by 80% within 1.5 h, while subsequent messages show diminishing effects; (2) substantial evacuation also occurs in non-warned areas, indicating potential transportation congestion; (3) socioeconomic disparities exist in evacuation timing, with high-income areas evacuating faster and showing less differentiation between warned and non-warned locations. Statistical modeling demonstrates socioeconomic variations in both evacuation decision rates and recovery patterns. These findings inform emergency communication strategies for climate-driven disasters, highlighting the need for targeted alerts, socioeconomically calibrated messaging, and staged evacuation procedures to enhance public safety during crises
Living well with the foundational economy:Assessing the spatial accessibility of foundational infrastructures in Vienna and the relationship to socio-economic status
No full textFoundational infrastructures play a vital role for providing a good life for all within planetary boundaries. In this article, we employ a spatial understanding of accessibility to assess the access to five foundational infrastructures (healthcare, care, education, culture, nature) for Vienna's 250 census districts. Based on government statistics and OpenStreetMap data, we develop the Foundational Accessibility Indicator and study how accessibility intersects with spatially explicit socio-economic variables, as covered by the Social Status Index. We find strong spatial disparities with regard to the accessibility of foundational infrastructures in Vienna, with high access for most infrastructures in the city center and partially the west, but poor access in the south and east of the city. There is a significant, positive, moderate correlation between the average access to foundational infrastructures and socio-economic status in Vienna, meaning that people of higher status tend to enjoy higher access than people with lower status. In the discussion, we contextualize our results, critically reflect our approach and draw implications for retrofitting foundational infrastructures. We conclude by highlighting the broader implications of our findings for accessibility research for living well within planetary limits
