JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND ALLIED RESEARCH
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TESTING BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE THEORIES USING TRENDS AND SEQUENCE IN FINANCE PERFORMANCE
Full text linkThis research investigates the relationship between behavioral bias and investment decisions in a developing nation scenario. This study investigates the impact of two behavioral biases (representativeness and conservatism) on investment decisions. Descriptive and inferential statistics, particularly multiple regression, are used to investigate the relationship between behavioral biases and investment decisions. Models based on psychological biases can explain momentum and reversals in stock returns, but they run the danger of over fitting theory to data. We investigate a fundamental psychological bias, representativeness, which underpins several behavioral-finance theories. People forecast future events based on how well past results match particular categories, according to this bias. We identify these groupings using financial performance, and we test the hypothesis that investors misclassify firms, resulting in biased expectations, to create out-of-sample tests. There is evidence of short-term accounting momentum, which lends credence to the idea that investors are slow to process new information. However, there is no evidence of a long-term reversal linked to financing performance. We find little evidence to support the theory that future returns are correlated with the consistency of past financing performance
INCOME INEQUALITY AND HEALTH OUTCOMES IN NIGERIA
Full text linkInequality of income represents a substantial disparity in the distribution of income in a country and it might hold adverse consequence for health. Plummeted income can reduce the desire to seek healthcare thereby undermining health outcomes in Nigeria. This study examines the effect of income distribution disparity on life expectancy and determines the causal relationship between health outcomes and income inequality in Nigeria. The income inequality-health theory provided the theoretical framework for the study. Data were obtained from World Bank Database, Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and United Nations Database. The income inequality was measured using Gini coefficient and health outcomes was measured by life expectancy. Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was estimated to examine the impact of income inequality on life expectancy. Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to determine the causal relationship between life expectancy and income inequality. Income inequality had a negative impact on life expectancy both in the long-run and short-run but only statistically significant in the long-run. There is unidirectional causality running from life expectancy to Gini coefficient. Efforts to reduce income differentials among individuals should be pursued by policymakers. Providing proper budgetary funding of public health care service will reduce the consequences of income distribution disparity and improve health outcome in Nigeri
ANALYSIS OF POPULATION GROWTH, CARBON EMISSION, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY NEXUS IN NIGERIA
Full text linkThis study investigated the impact of population growth and Carbon emission: a study on the contribution of renewable energy in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023 employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling. Some of the variables used in the analysis included population growth (POG), renewable energy consumption (REC), carbon emission (C02), real gross domestic product (RGDP), trade (TO), fossil fuel consumption (FFC), and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). As discussed, the impact analysis of the independent variable on Carbon emission (C02) shows that population growth has long-run positive impacts on Carbon emissions (C02), and renewable energy hurts Carbon emissions. As for the other variables such as RGDP and FFC, they also were found to have a negative and significant relationship with the level of carbon emission in Nigeria in the short-run and long-run. On the other hand, variables like GFCF and To have no significant influence on Carbon emission (C02). Accordingly, the following policy recommendation is made: Nigerian government policies should assist in enhancing the uptake of renewable energy in Nigeria to reduce carbon emissions that are hazardous to the lives of the country's people and the effectiveness of the ozone layer. Further, production facilities needed to boost renewable energy consumption in the country like solar, electricity vehicles, etc. must be manufactured there
EXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION, INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ECONOMIC MISERY IN NIGERIA: IS THERE A MODERATING EFFECT?
Full text linkThe study examines the effects of exchange rate and international trade on the economic Misery in Nigeria for the period of 1986 to 2023 using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) technique. The findings revealed significant relationships between all the variables and economic conditions, offering insights crucial for policy formulation and economic management. The analysis demonstrates that exchange rate devaluation plays a pivotal role in shaping economic misery in Nigeria, export trade was found to have a positive and significant impact on economic misery based on the negative coefficient which implies that higher import results to a decline in economic misery. Imports show a significant positive impact on economic misery, suggesting that higher levels of imported goods contribute to economic challenges in form of inflation in Nigeria. The interaction between exchange rate devaluation and export trade also revealed significant impacts on economic misery. This interaction indicates that while export growth can alleviate economic distress, the extent of this benefit depends on exchange rate dynamics as increased exchange rate depreciation was seen to have dampening effect on export trade as their interaction tend to worsen economic misery in Nigeria. Consequently, this study reveals nuanced dynamics, and emphasized the need for coordinated policy measures to optimize export competitiveness amidst exchange rate fluctuations. Proactive policy interventions that promote export diversification, enhance production capacities, and manage import dependencies are essential for fostering sustainable economic growth and reducing economic misery in Nigeria
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION IN SELECTED SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Full text linkThe literature on stock market performance have shown diverse channels through which stockperformance can be enhanced, one of it is adoption of information communication technology.The effect of ICT adoption on the stock market capitalization has been one of the most commonly debated topics among economists and policy makers in African countries and the outcome has been controversial. The study empirically investigated the information communication technology adoption on stock market capitalization in selected sub-Saharan African countries. The ex-pos facto research design was employed in the study. Annual data from 2008 to 2022 for 8 selected countries in SSA sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators and Internation Telecommunication Union Database were used for the study. Stationary tests were carried out to determine the stationarity and order of integration of the data values. Fixed Effect Estimation Technique was employed to evaluate the parameters in the model. The results showed that broadband users had
OIL PRICES AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF NONLINEAR RESPONSES TO OIL PRICE CHANGES
Full text linkThis study examines the nonlinear relationship between oil prices and inflation in Nigeria from 1981 to 2024, using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. It investigates the asymmetric effects of positive and negative oil price shocks on inflation while accounting for factors such as reserves, money supply, GDP growth, and monetary policy rates. The results show that past inflation significantly impacts current inflation, with a 1% increase in past inflation leading to a 0.63% rise in current inflation. Positive oil price shocks initially have short-term negative effects on inflation but create a significant positive relationship in the long run, particularly with lagged periods. Conversely, negative oil price shocks initially raise inflation, but later periods show a deflationary impact. Changes in total reserves significantly reduce inflation, and past money supply growth notably influences inflation dynamics. The Broad Money Supply (LM2) initially reduces inflation but later raises it, with a negative effect at -66.8034 and a positive effect at 40.1919. GDP growth shows no immediate impact on inflation but has a positive effect after three periods. The Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) has a varying effect, with a positive relationship suggesting that higher interest rates initially increase inflation. The error correction term reveals that inflation adjusts quickly to its long-run equilibrium. Based on these findings, the study recommends targeted monetary policies, strategic reserve management, and economic diversification to mitigate the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflatio
EDUCATION, POVERTY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN ANGLOPHONE WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Full text linkNations cannot achieve sustainable development without investing in education, as education is a multidimensional process that enhances economic growth and reduces poverty by increasing productivity. Poverty has strong linkages with education and economic development. This study utilizes panel data from five (5) Anglophone West African countries – The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone – covering the period from 1990 to 2023. The results of the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimation confirm that poverty and exchange rate fluctuations have a negative and significant impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, government expenditure on education has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the consumer price index positively influences growth but is statistically insignificant. Based on these findings, the study recommends the adoption of poverty reduction and education-enhancing strategies to accelerate economic growth in these countries. Additionally, policies promoting pro-poor growth and increased investment in education should be prioritized to foster sustainable development in Anglophone West Afric
DO GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY AND RISK INFLUENCE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA? EVIDENCE FROM QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Full text linkUncertainties and risks have continued to play a significant role in shaping economic decisions and outcomes in many countries. Like many other countries, Nigeria is exposed to global economic policy uncertainty. Nigeria is vulnerable to geopolitical risk because of its strategic location in both sub-Saharan Africa and the West African subregion. However, the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on Nigeria's economic growth has not received much research. Considering these circumstances, the study utilizes quantile regression analysis to explore the impact of global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on Nigeria's economic growth, utilizing monthly data for all variables from January 1997 to December 2023. The result indicates that economic growth is negatively related to global economic policy uncertainty at the lower quantile; however, the relationship turned positive at the middle and upper quantile. On the other hand, geopolitical risk has a negative relationship with economic growth across all the quantiles. The study recommends that policymakers make robust policies that will promote the diversification of the Nigerian economy to withstand any form of influence emanating from elsewhere. Similarly, human capital development should continue to be promoted with a view of having quality manpower capable of initiating local solutions to Nigeria’s problems, among other recommendations
ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION AND MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM ARDL ANALYSIS
Full text linkThis study examines the impact of electricity consumption and macroeconomic variables on manufacturing output in Nigeria from 1986 to 2023, using annual time series data from the World Development Indicators and the Central Bank of Nigeria. A short-run dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed due to the absence of co-integration among the variables, as revealed by the bounds test. The results indicate that electricity consumption has a positive but statistically insignificant impact on manufacturing output, with a 1% increase resulting in a 0.054% rise. Similarly, the exchange rate and inflation exhibit positive but insignificant impacts, with 1% increases associated with 0.051% and 0.012% rises in output, respectively. The current monetary policy rate (MPR) has a negative and insignificant impact, with a 1% rise reducing output by 0.016%. The first lag of MPR shows a positive but insignificant impact, while the second lag has a negative and statistically significant impact, indicating that a 1% increase in MPR at this lag reduces manufacturing output by 0.141%. This highlights the delayed negative impact of monetary tightening on industrial performance. Based on these findings, the study recommends improving electricity reliability, stabilizing exchange rates through economic diversification, and coordinating inflation management policies. Additionally, it urges the government to adopt interest rate strategies that are sensitive to the manufacturing sector
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, TERRORISM AND TOURISM NEXUS IN AFRICA
Full text linkAmid escalating climate change impacts in Africa, marked by rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, extreme heatwaves, sea-level rise, droughts, and biodiversity loss, this study empirically examines the effects of terrorism and international tourism on environmental quality across the continent. In addition, it evaluates the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis within the African context. To achieve these objectives, the study employs a fixed effects model with Driscoll and Kraay standard errors to address cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity. The empirical findings yield several key insights. First, tourism development is found to significantly increase CO₂ emissions in Africa. Second, terrorism shows a positive but statistically insignificant link to CO₂ emissions, suggesting localized impacts with limited continental influence. Third, the results provide empirical support for the U-shaped EKC hypothesis, implying that environmental degradation initially rises with economic growth but declines after surpassing a certain income threshold. Lastly, macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, trade openness, and urbanization are positively associated with CO₂ emissions, whereas renewable energy consumption and gross capital formation are found to mitigate environmental degradation. Policy implications are subsequently discussed