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The use of indigenous knowledge in weather and climate prediction in Mahenge and Ismani wards, Tanzania
No full textThis article is also published in a Proceedings of the first Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation Programme Scientific Conference, 2012This paper discusses the role of indigenous knowledge (IK) in weather and climate prediction in
Mahenge and Ismani wards focusing on Safari Road and Mahenge Mjini villages in Mahenge; and
Uhominyi and Ismani Tarafani villages in Ismani. The perception of local communities about climate
change is assessed. Local environmental and astronomical indicators used by local communities in
weather and climate prediction are identified and documented. A team of five IK experts in both
Mahenge and Ismani was identified and assigned the task of making continuous observations of the IK
indicators and producing seasonal rainfall forecast for the purpose of testing the accuracy and
reliability of IK. Key informant interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) approaches were used
in data collection regarding existing IK in weather forecast. A total of 120 respondents were interviewed
in study Mahenge and Ismani wards respectively. A Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was
used for data analysis. More than 83% of the respondents were found to be aware of climate change.
Plant phenology, particularly that of mango trees was found to be the most used indicator in both
wards. An assessment of the forecasted and observed 2011/2012 seasonal rainfall indicates
comparable results.Royal Norwegian Governmen
Usage of indices for extraction of built-up areas and vegetation features from landsat TM image: a case of Dar es Salaam and Kisarawe peri-urban areas, Tanzania
No full textThis article is also available at: http://journal.saup.org/ijafThis paper address the use of Indices Combination with supervision classification methods to extract urban built up areas, vegetation and water features from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM7) imagery covering Dar es Salaam and Kisarawe peri-urban areas. The study uses three indices; Normalized Difference Built up Index (NDBI), Modified Landsat TM7 image into three thematic-oriented bands. Data correlation, spectral confusion and redundancy between original multispectral bands were significantly reduced upon application of the techniques. As a result, the spectral signatures of the three urban land use classes are well separated. Through a supervised classification on the newly formed image, the urban built-up areas, vegetation and water features were finally extracted effectively; with the accuracy of 82.05 percent attained. The results show that the technique is effective and reliable and can be considered for use in other areas with similar characteristics
Role of non-timber forest products in climate change adaptation by forest dependent communities in Kilolo District, Iringa, Tanzania
No full textA study to assess the role of Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) was conducted to forest dependent communities around New Dabaga -Ulongambi Forest Reserve (NDUFR) in Kilolo District as a strategy to cope with the impacts of climate change. Data were collected through household questionnaires, PRA techniques, transect walk and direct field observations. Climatic data mainly rainfall and temperature for the last 30 years were obtained from Nduli Airport weather station. Data collected through PRA tools were analysed with the help of communities and the results communicated back to local communities for rectification. The CRiSTAL 3.0 was used to synthesize information from focus group discussion on the link between climate change, NTFPs and livelihoods. Household interviews data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS). Logistic regression model was used to ascertain the relationships existing between the local peoples’ perception on the impacts of climate change and socio-economic factors. A total of 107 plant species were identified to be harvested by residents around NDUFR as NTFPs. The majority of the respondents (81%) perceived that there has been a change in the climate pattern due to increased temperatures and unpredictable rainfalls. The local peoples’ perceptions on temperature and rainfall patterns were in line with the available climatic data records. Agriculture was found to be the most affected livelihood activity by climate change around NDUFR. Communities living around NDUFR were found to use more than one strategy to cope with the adverse effects of climate change. About 43% of the respondents admitted to use NTFPs for subsistence and source of income as a climate change coping strategy. The study concluded that NTFPs still play a safety net role to assist communities in adverse situation such as crop failure under the current change in climate. The need to emphasis sustainable harvesting, improve processing and access to NTFPs markets is crucial.Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation (CCIAM) Programme under NORAD suppor
Water Balance Modeling in a Semi-Arid Environment with Limited in situ Data Using Remote Sensing in Lake Manyara, East African Rift, Tanzania
No full textwww.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensingThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the water balance in a semi-arid environment with limited in situ data using a remote sensing approach. We focus on the Lake Manyara catchment, located within the East African Rift of northern Tanzania. We use a distributed conceptual hydrological model driven by remote sensing data to study the spatial and temporal variability of water balance parameters within the catchment. Satellite gravimetry GRACE data is used to verify the trends of the inferred lake level changes. The results show that the lake undergoes high spatial and temporal variations, characteristic of a semi-arid climate with high evaporation and low rainfall. We observe that the Lake Manyara water balance and GRACE equivalent water depth show comparable trends; a decrease after 2002 followed by a sharp increase in 2006–2007. Our modeling confirms the importance of the 2006–2007 Indian Ocean Dipole fluctuation in replenishing the groundwater reservoirs of East Africa. We thus demonstrate that water balance modeling can be performed successfully using remote sensing data even in complex climatic settings. Despite the small size of Lake Manyara, GRACE data showed great potential for hydrological research on smaller un-gauged lakes and catchments in similar semi-arid environments worldwide. The water balance information can be used for further analysis of lake variations in relation to soil erosion, climate and land cover/land use change as well as different lake management and conservation scenarios
Silencing climate change in Utah through extremist rhetoric and stakeholder processes: a critical discourse analysis
No full texthttp://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v6n5p50This paper utilizes Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) to explore the dimensions of domination and freedom
within two significant public forums on climate change in Utah: (1) the resolution HJR 12 passed in the Utah
State Legislature in 2010 and (2) the Blue Ribbon Committee on Climate Change (BRAC) process organized in
2006. The resolution HJR 12 reflects an extremist or inflammatory rhetoric point of view, while BRAC presents
itself as a beacon of bureaucratic rationality, efficiency, and hierarchy. Forums such as these are force-feeding
Americans subtly and not so subtly with divisive discourse and restrictive visions that pollute American politics
and weaken the nation's capacity to address and solve its most challenging problems. HJR 12 exemplifies the
role interpretive control plays in silencing those who disagree. The BRAC process illustrated how bureaucracy
and rationalization may constrain future vision and action, reinforce current power structures, and encourage
extreme rhetoric further down the road. This analysis uncovers the idealization of rational power underlying both
forums. This idealization creates an unstable ground where powerplays, poorly disguised as rational policy
making, dominate while silencing other voices. Scholars, government bureaucracies at all levels, and the
American public wishing to deal with today’s complex challenges must purposefully address destructive
assumptions associated with idealized rational processes, while recognizing the important role uncertainty,
values, worldviews, and interests play in encouraging or discouraging policy change
Vulnerability of rain-fed paddy producing households to climate change and variability: a case of North 'B' district, Unguja
No full textClimate change and variability is one of great challenges facing households in Tanzania.
The main objective of this study was to evaluate vulnerability of farm households
engaged in rain-fed paddy production to climate change and variability in Zanzibar's
North 'B' District. Specifically, the study aimed at determining farm households
vulnerability to the effect of climate change and variability; examining the temperature
and rainfall trend and to determine factors affecting paddy production. Primary data was
collected using pre-structured questionnaires and focus groups discussions. Secondary
data for climate were collected from the Tanzania Meteorological Agency office (TMA).
The livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) was used to analyse households' vulnerability;
the climatic data were analysed using the MAKESENS model and multiple linear
regression was used to analyse factors affecting paddy production. Results show that the
overall LVI score for both Shehias was 0.47 while the LVI-IPCC was 0.080, indicating
that households in the study area were most vulnerable with (LVI) while moderately
vulnerable under the (LVI-IPCC). With respect to rainfall, results were not statistical
significant but with the negative slopes for annual and seasonal precipitation. The average
surface maximum and minimum temperatures for January-February were found to be
statistically significant (p<0.005) with positive slope. Examination of factors influencing
paddy production showed that cultivated land size, labour and type of fertilizer used were
statistical significant. The study concludes that, decreasing of rainfall and increasing of
maximum and minimum temperature are matter of concern and the effect of climate
changes appears to take its toll with enormous implications in farm management. This is
in terms of inconsistency rainfall patterns. It is recommended that, the government
should pay more attention to the other methods like irrigation used by rain fed farm
households in adapting the effect of climate change and variability.EPINA
Estimation of aboveground tree carbon stock in smallholder forests of the southern highlands, Tanzania
No full textAllometric models for estimating carbon under small holder forests differ depending on
tree species, site, and tree components. The study was carried out to develop specific
allometric models and quantify the aboveground carbon stocks for Pinus patula and
Eucalyptus saligna in Mbozi and Mufindi Districts. The results showed that allometric
models that use DBH as the,predictor variable were the best in predicting aboveground
carbon stock for tree components in smallholder forests. Using the component model the
carbon density for Eucalyptus saligna in Mbozi amounts to 23.50 t C ha-1 and in Mufindi
it was 41.34 t ha-1. Pinus patula in Mbozi had carbon density amounting to 49.43 t C ha-1
while it was 36.96 t C ha-1 in Mufindi. These amounts translate into 86.25 t ha-1 of C02e
in Eucalyptus saligna stands in Mbozi and 151.72 t ha-1 in Mufindi. Further, Pinus patula
stands stored 181.41 t ha-1 and 135.64 t ha-1 of C02e in Mbozi and Mufindi respectively.
By using total tree model the-carbon density for Eucalyptus saligna in Mbozi amounts to
2.36 t C ha-1 and 10.29 t ha-1 in Mufindi. Pinus patula in Mbozi had 45.05 t C ha-1 while
in Mufindi it was 33.96 t C ha-1
• The amounts translate into 8.67 t ha-1 of C02e in
Eucalyptus saligna in Mbozi and 37.76 in Mufindi. On the other hand Pinus patula had
165.32 and 124.63 t ha-1 of C02e in Mbozi and Mufindi respectively. It is apparent that
there is a high potential for climate change mitigation through carbon accumulation under
smallholder forestry.CCIAM programm
Forest and land use mapping using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System: A case study on model system
No full textIAEES www.iaees.orgRemote sensing and geospatial technologies find tremendous application in rapid spatial and temporal
monitoring as well as assessment of tropical forest resources and hence in formulation of concrete policy
frameworks for their sustainable management. Present paper provides an overview on application of remote
sensing in forestry and ecology with a case study which may be further extrapolated in other Indian Himalayan
regions of North-East India. The case study used an IKONOS (2001) image, Arc View ver. 3.2, and ERDAS
IMAGINE ver. 9.1 in order to investigate the forest/vegetation types/land cover mapping of Forest Research
Institute campus (FRI), Dehradun, India (as model system) through visual image interpretation. In the present
case study, Chir pine was the dominant vegetation type covering major area of plantation inside FRI campus
followed by Sal, Teak, Cassia, Cupressus and mixed vegetation with intermittent built up areas. Since FRI
consists of huge plantations, separated in a segmented way, the site was feasible for learners of vegetation or
forest mapping in an effective and systematic way. In nutshell, vegetation type/land use mapping through
visual interpretation may be a valuable tool in monitoring, assessment and conservation planning of forests
Forest cover changes, stocking and removals Under different decentralised forest management Regimes in Tanzania
No full textBy the end of the last century many countries including Tanzania moved from centralised towards decentralised forest management but little empirical evidence exists on how such changes have influenced forest conditions. The objective of this study was to provide insights on how decentralised approaches might influence forest resource conditions. Forest cover analyses from satellite images (1993, 2000 and 2009) and systematic sample plot inventories (2009) in two state forest reserves under joint forest management (JFM) and two village forest reserves under community-based forest management (CBFM) in Babati District, Tanzania were carried out. Based on the results, it was not possible to claim that the decentralised management had been successful in improving forest conditions. Proportions of closed woodland decreased significantly over time (from over 80 to 50–60% under JFM and from around 70 to almost 0% under CBFM. In all forests, numbers of regenerants were high, but proportions of larger trees were low and levels of removals (legal and illegal) were relatively high. In general the situation under JFM was better than under CBFM. Results of this study can be used by policymakers to assess the influence of decentralised forest management in Tanzania.The study was done as a part of the project
'Assessing the impact of forestland tenure
changes on forest resources and rural livelihoods
in Tanzania' (No. NUFUTZ-2007/10226) under
the Tanzania–Norway NUFU Programme
2007–2012. We acknowledge the assistance
provided by staff of the Manyara catchment
forest office, Manyara natural resource office,
village governments in Managhat, Haraa, Riroda
and Bubu villages during data collection. We are
indebted to A Masao, D Byarugaba and D Shafii
who provided valuable technical assistance in
the field
Large-scale pattern of genetic differentiation within African rainforest trees: insights on the roles of ecological gradients and past climate changes on the evolution of Erythrophleum spp (Fabaceae)
No full textThe evolutionary events that have shaped biodiversity patterns in the African rainforests are still
poorly documented. Past forest fragmentation and ecological gradients have been advocated as important drivers
of genetic differentiation but their respective roles remain unclear. Using nuclear microsatellites (nSSRs) and
chloroplast non-coding sequences (pDNA), we characterised the spatial genetic structure of Erythrophleum
(Fabaceae) forest trees in West and Central Africa (Guinea Region, GR). This widespread genus displays a wide
ecological amplitude and taxonomists recognize two forest tree species, E. ivorense and E. suaveolens, which are
difficult to distinguish in the field and often confused.
Bayesian-clustering applied on nSSRs of a blind sample of 648 specimens identified three major gene
pools showing no or very limited introgression. They present parapatric distributions correlated to rainfall gradients
and forest types. One gene pool is restricted to coastal evergreen forests and corresponds to E. ivorense; a second
one is found in gallery forests from the dry forest zone of West Africa and North-West Cameroon and corresponds
to West-African E. suaveolens; the third gene pool occurs in semi-evergreen forests and corresponds to Central
African E. suaveolens. These gene pools have mostly unique pDNA haplotypes but they do not form reciprocally
monophyletic clades. Nevertheless, pDNA molecular dating indicates that the divergence between E. ivorense and
Central African E. suaveolens predates the Pleistocene. Further Bayesian-clustering applied within each major gene
pool identified diffuse genetic discontinuities (minor gene pools displaying substantial introgression) at a latitude
between 0 and 2°N in Central Africa for both species, and at a longitude between 5° and 8°E for E. ivorense.
Moreover, we detected evidence of past population declines which are consistent with historical habitat
fragmentation induced by Pleistocene climate changes.
Overall, deep genetic differentiation (major gene pools) follows ecological gradients that may be at
the origin of speciation, while diffuse differentiation (minor gene pools) are tentatively interpreted as the signature
of past forest fragmentation induced by past climate changes.The Gembloux Agricultural Universit