Scientific Annals of Economics and Business
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Sovereign Credit Default Swap Market Volatility in BRICS Countries Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Get PDFSCDS (Sovereign Credit Default Swaps) are becoming more widely used as a country risk indicator after 2008 and stand out for providing real-time information rather than periodic reporting. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to economic disruptions and a decline in international trade. Understanding how the Pandemic affects SCDS return volatility in emerging economies like BRICS forms the motivation for our research. With this study, we aim to determine the impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on SCDS return volatility in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, known as the BRICS countries. We used the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model to analyze the data, which consisted of the daily closing price data for SCDS. The date of the first COVID-19 case in each country has been taken as the beginning of the COVID-19 Pandemic in each country. The results of the estimated GARCH models show that the volatility processes of the SCDS return series differ between periods. EGARCH model results indicate that shocks created by news in these countries during the Pandemic have a small and persistent effect on Brazil and Russia's SCDS return volatility, while they have a large and enduring effect on China and South Africa's SCDS return volatility. The findings will guide policymakers and portfolio managers in determining risk management models
Linear and Nonlinear Relationship Between Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rate and Consumer Price Index: An Empirical Application for Countries with Different Levels of Development
Get PDFThe research population of this study consists of Australia, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Brazil, Chile, Canada, Hungary, Pakistan, India, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. For these countries; T, the relationship between Exchange Rate Index (exc), Real Interest Rate (int) and Consumer Price Index (cpi) variables were examined. Data from 2000Q1 to 2021Q3 were used in the study. The data are taken from the IMF's data bank. Analysis was done in R-Studio. Wo Seasonality Test, Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Linear Granger Causality Analysis and Nonlinear Granger Causality Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between variables. The theory claims that there is causality in both directions between exchange rate, interest rate and inflation. In the study, the relationship between these variables was investigated with linear and nonlinear causality tests. It is thought that the empirical results that contradict the theory are caused by the development levels of the countries, their macroeconomic structures, the applied fiscal and monetary policy instruments, the conjuncture and the analysis methods. The study aims to investigate these claims. For this reason, the development levels, sociocultural and socioeconomic structures of the selected countries were requested to be different. In addition, two different test methods, linear and non-linear, were preferred for the causality relationship. It was observed that the selected analysis methods significantly affected the results. Linear causality analysis results are closer to theoretical implications. However, the level of development of the countries does not have a significant effect on the relationship between the variables
ICT Leapfrogging Amidst Labour Force-Economic Growth Nexus in EAP and ECA Regions
Get PDFTowards achieving the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, this study revisits the information and communication technology (ICT) leapfrogging hypothesis of Steinmueller (2001), and Fong (2009) to expand the literature by testing its relevance in the labour force-growth dynamics in Asia. To achieve this, the study addresses four objectives: (i) test the ICT leapfrogging hypothesis; (ii) investigate the growth-enhancing impact of labour; (iii) examine whether ICT enhances or distorts the productivity of labour on economic growth; and (iv) if these effects differ by economic development. The study uses an unbalanced panel data on 81 countries located in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) and Europe and Central Asia (ECA) from 2010 to 2019. Two estimation techniques, namely panel spatial correlation consistent fixed effects (PSCC-FE) and random effects instrumental variables two-stage least squares (RE-IV2SLS), are deployed. To appraise if the impact differs by economic development, the study engages income group analysis. Among other findings: the leapfrogging hypothesis holds; labour is a significant predictor of economic growth; mobile phones usage is a more potent ICT indicator with more leapfrogging potentials relative to fixed telephones subscription; the net effect of labour on growth is mostly positive in the mobile phones’ models
Testing the Price Bubbles in Cryptocurrencies using Sequential Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) Test Procedures: A Comparison for Before and After COVID-19
Get PDFBubbles in asset prices have attracted the attention of economists for centuries. Extreme increases in asset prices, followed by their sudden decline, create a turbulent effect on the economy and even invite crises in time. For this reason, some measurement techniques have been employed to investigate the price bubbles that may occur. This study explores the possible speculative price bubbles of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Binance Coin cryptocurrencies, compares them with the pre-and post-COVID-19 period, and examines asymmetric causality relationships between variables. Therefore, we analyzed the price bubbles of these cryptocurrencies using the closing price for daily data between 16.01.2018 and 31.12.2021 by the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Hatemi-J (2012) asymmetric causality test. In this context, 1446 observations, 723 of which were before COVID-19 and 723 after COVID-19, were employed in the study. Looking at the SADF analysis results, we detected 103 price bubbles before COVID-19 for the three cryptocurrencies, while we determined 599 price bubbles after COVID-19. The common finding in the asymmetric causality test results is that there is a causality relationship between the negative shocks faced by one cryptocurrency and the positive shocks faced by the other cryptocurrencies
The Impact of Environmental Effects of Sustainable Development on Direct Investments
Get PDFOn the background of the exponential decrease of natural resources and the continuous and accentuated degradation of the quality of the environment, ensuring the sustainability of economic and social processes has become a reality of everyday life. However, the primary focus is on the degradation of the quality of the environment, which has the main effect of global warming. The idea of sustainable development is based on 3 fundamental pillars, namely the economic, the social and last but not least the environmental. In contemporary society, direct investment is often seen as a vital source for development and even sustainable development. Thus, the desire for development must go hand in hand with sustainable development, implicitly with the quality of the surrounding environment. At the level of the European Union, it is important that all member countries implement common measures on sustainable development. This is the generous context in which the paper aims to analyse the impact of environmental effects in the volume of direct investments. We will analyse the countries of European country in the period 2004-2020, and we will use the Stata program. Thus, following the running of the multiple regression equation, we found that in attracting direct investments in European country in the period 2004-2020, the environmental effects have a positive influence
Foreword
No full textThrough research, development, and innovation, the academic environment must channel its resources to find answers to the needs and problems of the wider community of which it is a part. Knowledge must return to the community, and for this, the university can only be a powerful center for the propagation of ideas and an engine of development and social change
Risk Disclosures and Non-Financial Reporting: Evidence in a New European Context
Get PDFThe objective of this research is to determine the extent and current characteristics of risk disclosure in Europe in the context of corporate non-financial reporting practices. A multivariate linear regression analysis on risk disclosure behaviour is performed on a sample of companies included in the EURO STOXX 50 Index, whose data were collected from their annual financial reports. Additionally, a first longitudinal exploration is carried out with respect to the GRI standard. It was possible to detect which risk items are more frequently reported by the selected corporations, and which corporate documents are most likely to contain relevant risk information. It was also possible to establish a link between specific industries, countries and company financial profiles and levels of risk disclosure. This empirical research is particularly relevant in the current scenario where several events converge: the gradual evolution, since 2017, of the NFRD (Non-Financial Reporting Directive) to a new Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD); the subsequent legal requirements for 2020 and 2021 of the ESEF (European Single Electronic Format) to support the disclosure of annual corporate reports; the pandemic and the new war scenario in Europe. This empirical work provides novel insights into risk disclosure and non-financial information in a particular setting, i.e., pre- and post-pandemic Europe, against a backdrop of growing concern about a new war scenario
The Impact of Business Intelligence and Analytics Adoption on Decision Making Effectiveness and Managerial Work Performance
Get PDFBusiness Intelligence and Analytics systems have the capability to enable organizations to better comprehend their business and to increase the quality of managerial decisions, and consequently improve their performance. Recently, organizations have embraced the idea that data becomes a core asset, and this belief also changes the culture of the organization; data and analytics now determine a data-driven culture, which makes way for more effective data-driven decisions. To the best of our knowledge, there are few studies that investigate the effects of BI&A adoption on individual decision-making effectiveness and managerial work performance. This paper aims to contribute to bridging this gap by providing a research model that examines the relationship between BI&A adoption and manager’s decision-making effectiveness and then his individual work performance. The research model also theorizes that a data-driven culture promotes the BI&A adoption in the organization. Using specific control variables, we also expect to observe differences between different departments and managerial positions, which will provide practical implications for companies that work on BI&A adoption
Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth and Inflation: The Case of Emerging Market Economies
Get PDFThis study aimed to analyze the impact of external debt on economic growth and inflation for emerging market economies for the period 1995-2020 using the panel data method. To this end, the study used the data on 12 countries listed in the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index. The results of the panel cointegration analysis showed that changes in external debt stock affect economic growth in the opposite direction and inflation rate in the same direction. According to the country-specific results of the panel cointegration analysis, external debt had a negative impact on economic growth in all countries except Mexico, Egypt, India, and Türkiye. External debt increased inflation in all countries except China, Egypt, India, South Africa, and Thailand. The Bootstrap panel causality test results showed a unidirectional causality from economic growth to external debt stock in China, India and Thailand, and a bidirectional causality in China. A unidirectional causality was also found from external debt stock to inflation in Colombia, and a unidirectional causality from inflation to external debt in China, India, Peru, and Thailand. Based on the cointegration analysis results, it is recommended that external debt should be used to finance more productive investments in order to ensure sustainable economic growth in Brazil, China, Colombia, Indonesia, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand. The panel causality test results also showed that economic growth in China, India, and Thailand requires more external resources. Based on these results, it is recommended to reduce external debt in order to reduce inflation in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, and Türkiye
Investigating the Nexus Between Militarization and Inflation in Turkey
Get PDFThe importance of military expenditure in terms of establishing national security constitutes the main excuse for public expenditures made by states in this field. Yet, a special importance should be attached to military expenditure in terms of ensuring the efficiency of the public sectors of developing countries and rational use of resources. In fact, there is no consensus about the effect of these types of expenditures on the economy in general or the trade-offs they cause. Therefore, their effects on major macroeconomic variables and efficiency in resource allocation, production, and distribution deserve to be comprehensively addressed. To this end, this study aims to investigate the long- term effect of militarization on inflation in Turkey. By incorporating the annual data from the period 1970 to 2020 and employing the combined approach to cointegration suggested by Bayer and Hanck (2013), the presence of long-term interplay between militarization and inflation can be analyzed. After detecting the presence of cointegration, the findings of the long run model reveal that inflation is spurred by military expenditure and arms imports besides the other determinants of inflation