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Supplementary data for the article: Đorđević, V., Lakušić, D., Novković, I., Stevanović, V.,& Tsiftsis, S.. (2025). Factors Influencing Orchid Species Richness in the Central Balkans: The Importance of Belowground Organ Types. Plants, 14(3), 443. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14030443
No full textSupplementary material for: [https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14030443]Related to published version: [https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2069
Crows in Belgrade
No full textThe folder contains data and R code for a research article "Human population and park features affect escape behaviour in hooded crows across urban landscape".Data material for: [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2025.123402]Related to published version: [https://gery.gef.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/2215
Comparative assessment of GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (AHP) and machine learning (MaxEnt) approaches for wildfire susceptibility modeling in Montenegro
No full textThis study provides a national-scale assessment of wildfire susceptibility in Montenegro by comparing two modeling frameworks: a Geographic Information System–based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA) using fuzzy standardization with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and a machine-learning approach based on the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). Historical wildfire occurrences from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) archive (2001–2024) were analyzed together with initial thirteen geoenvironmental initial causal criteria spanning vegetation, climatic, topographic and anthropogenic factors. After the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) analysis, eleven causal criteria were retained for further modeling. Results of validation using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed clear performance differences: GIS-MCDA with fuzzy standardization and AHP weighting achieved low predictive accuracy (area under the curve, AUC = 0.51), whereas MaxEnt performed strongly (AUC = 0.81). These findings highlight the ability of MaxEnt to capture nonlinear relationships and complex interactions among geoenvironmental causal criteria, whereas GIS-MCDA with fuzzy standardization and AHP proved inadequate for reliable wildfire susceptibility assessment in this context. These results confirm the findings of previous studies, while showing an even weaker performance of GIS-MCDA with fuzzy standardization and AHP compared to earlier studies. Importantly, this is the first application of machine learning through MaxEnt for wildfire susceptibility assessment in Montenegro, providing a spatial basis for wildfire management and a foundation for national-scale wildfire risk assessment
Python-Based Automation of Geoprocessing in Digital Topographicmap Production: Content Alignment Between Map Sheet Borders
No full textThis paper presents a semi-automated geoprocessing workflow for the 1:25 000 digital topographic map (DTM25) production at the Military Geographic Institute (MGI). Traditional manual alignment of adjacent sheet boundaries is labor-intensive, error-prone, and demands detailed visual inspection of vector features. We developed a Python toolbox for ArcGIS Desktop that encapsulates MGI’s cartographic rules within object-oriented classes and leverages ArcPy to automatically process and refine sheet-boundary geometries according to user-defined tolerances. Three specialized tools support unidirectional, bidirectional, and preparatory alignment scenarios, and automatically flag any residual misalignments for operator review. Deployment as a native ArcGIS toolbox lowers the barrier for non-programmers, while the modular architecture permits future enhancements such as automated quality control or adaptation to other map scales. Experimental application across multiple DTM25 sheet pairs demonstrated substantial reductions in manual effort, improved topological consistency, and enhanced geometric precision. This approach offers a replicable model for GIS organizations seeking to modernize and scale their cartographic workflows.Editors: Marija Kuzmanović, Dragana Makajić-Nikolić, Bisera Andrić Gušava
Age Model of Fertility of Roma Women in Serbia
No full textМодел репродукције ромског становништва у Србији почетком XXI века, најкраће речено, испољава знакове „закочене” транзиције фертилитета. Неки од разлога оваквог стања су перзистенција дечијих обичајних бракова, малолетничка трудноћа, ниска преваленција употребе модерне контрацепције и постојање незадовољене потребе за планирањем породице. У овом реферату ћемо детаљно, на основу кохортног и трансферзалног демографског метода, анализирати промене које су се десиле у старосном обрасцу фертилитета Ромкиња, али и покушати да идентификујемо покретаче оваквих промена. Фертилитет Ромкиња показује особине успорене транзиције модела репродукције који се карактерише јако раним отпочињањем рађања, малим интергенезичким интервалима и високим паритетом. Нажалост, овакав модел рађања као битну карактеристику носи и велики ризик за репродуктивно здравље жена, па су тако Ромкиње четрнаест пута оптерећеније адолесцентним рађањем у односу на општу популацију, троструко ређе користе модерну контрацепцију и два и по пута чешће се подвргавају намерном прекиду трудноће. Такође, интересантно је да је остварени фертилитет Ромкиња 12,5% виши од жељеног, за разлику од опште популације, где је остварени фертилитет 28% нижи од жељеног. Ромкиње које су сада у првој половини своје оптималне репродуктивне старости, вероватно ће родити 10% више деце у односу на генерацију својих мајки, уз веома сличан старосни образац рађања и повећање јаза између жељеног и оствареног броја деце. Ово јасно указује на неопходност увођења наталитетно неутралног концепта репродуктивног здравља у мере демографске политике. Чини се да једино инсистирање на очувању репродуктивног здравља и подстицање рађања у оквиру оптималне репродуктивне доби може допринети остварењу фертилитета блиском жељеном (код свих етничких и социјалних група) уз јасне индивидуалне здравствене и колективне демографске бенефите.The reproduction model of the Roma population in Serbia at the beginning of the 21st century, shows signs of a „stalled“ fertility transition. Some of the reasons for this are the persistence of arranged child marriages, pregnancy of the underaged girls, low prevalence of modern contraceptive use, and the existence of an unsatisfied need for family planning. In this article, based on the cohort and transferal demographic method, we will analyze the changes that have occurred in the age pattern of the fertility of Roma women, but we will also try to identify the drivers of such changes. Fertility of Roma women shows the characteristics of a slowed (delayed) transition of the reproduction model, which is characterized by a very early start of childbearing (38.4% of Roma women give birth to their first child before the age of 18), small birth-to-pregnancy intervals and high parity. Unfortunately, this type of reproductive pattern carries a great risk for women's reproductive health as an important characteristic, so Roma women are fourteen times more burdened by adolescent births compared to the general population, three times less likely to use modern contraception and two and a half times more likely to undergo intentional abortion. Also, it is interesting that the achieved fertility of Roma women is 12.5% higher than desired, in contrast to the general population where the achieved fertility is 28% lower than desired. Roma women who are now in the first half of their optimal reproductive age are likely to give birth to 10% more children compared to their mothers' generation, with a very similar age pattern and a widening gap between the desired and actual number of children. This clearly indicates the necessity of introducing a fertility-neutral concept of reproductive health into demographic policy measures. It seems that the only insistence on preserving reproductive health and encouraging births within the optimal reproductive age can contribute to the realization of fertility close to the desired (in all ethnic and social groups) with clear individual – health and collective – demographic benefits.Едиција: Научни скупови / Српска академија наука и уметности ; књ. 241. Одељење друштвених наука ; књ. 59Уредници: Тибор Варади, Драгољуб Б. Ђорђевић, Драган Тодорови
Aging of the population in the border area of Serbia with Bulgaria as a factor of uneven regional development
No full textPopulation aging is a global phenomenon in many countries. The paper analyzes the causes of population aging, territorial differences in the average age of the population, and the rural/urban diversification of population aging at the level of the border area of Serbia and Bulgaria. According to the Penev criterion, settlements were ranked according to demographic age stages. The research period includes census data from 2002, 2011, and 2022. The focus of the paper is to consider the impact of population aging on various components of regional development (ecological, social, economic, cultural). The focus is on predictions of future regional development challenges if the mentioned trend continues. In this context, the problem of sustainability was pointed out through the possibility and limitations of the implementation of the goals of sustainable development due to the aging of the population.Editor: Natalija Miri
Analysing the natural disaster vulnerability of Serbian local self-government units using fuzzy logic and the TOPSIS method
No full textIn order to adequately prevent and mitigate the consequences of natural disasters, vulnerability to natural disasters must be analyzed at various administrative and territorial levels. In this study, the vulnerability to natural disasters of 25 local self-government units in Central Serbia, with an area between 300 and 400 km2, was analyzed. For each analyzed local self-government unit, based on the data on zones susceptible to natural disasters, the share of the area susceptible to certain natural disasters (floods, landslides and rockfalls, earthquakes, hail, excessive erosion and torrential floods) was calculated using GIS. In addition, the share of area susceptible to the aforementioned disasters was calculated in areas with residential and commercial buildings, where risk analysis for the population is crucial for their protection. Also, certain demographic data important for determining the vulnerability of the population to natural disasters were analyzed for the studied local self-government units: the percentage of people with disabilities in the total population aged 2 and over, the percentage of people aged 65 and over in the total population, the percentage of people with primary school, incomplete primary school and no education in the total population aged 15 and over, the percentage of inactive people in the total population and the percentage of elderly single-person households in the total number of households. Using the fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (fuzzy AHP), the weighting coefficients of the individual parameters were first determined. Then, based on the obtained parameter values and their weighting coefficients, the fuzzy MULTIMOORA method was applied to rank the studied local self-government units in terms of their vulnerability to natural disasters, from the most vulnerable to the least vulnerable. In addition, by applying the TOPSIS method based on weighting coefficients and parameter values, a performance index was determined to show the vulnerability of each local self-government unit to natural disasters. The application of fuzzy logic through a fuzzy AHP and the fuzzy MULTIMOORA method enabled greater objectivity in the ranking of the local self-government units, and the application of the TOPSIS method enabled greater objectivity in the quantification of the results.Editor: Natalija Miri
Сезоналност рађања, фетални губици и температура ваздуха у региону Србија-север
No full textThe seasonality of births in Serbia shows a pattern in which the largest number of children are born during late summer and early autumn, placing the largest part of conceptions at the transition from one calendar year to another, which is not the case in the Serbia-North region. Taking into account the seasonality of births, we will try to estimate the distribution of conceptions on a weekly basis during the period 2015-2020. However, a special contribution of this paper will be observing of variations in the number of conceptions and births in parallel with variations in the average weekly air temperature by administrative districts in the Serbia-North region. The ratio between the number of conceptions during a calendar week with days of a certain average air temperature and live births that occur after 30-42 weeks later represents the degree of reproductive success indicating the level of fetal losses. Many recent studies indicate that there is a high correlation between the average weekly air temperature and clinically unregistered fetal losses that occur in the earliest stages of pregnancy. This effect is greatest in the first days after conception, potentially indicating the influence of an increase in air temperature on the occurrence of a conception error. The paper analyzes the relationship between changes in the number of days in five temperature ranges and changes in the number of pregnancies and live births as a positive pregnancy outcome. The results indicate that temperature extremes reduce the likelihood of a positive reproductive outcome. The expected increase in air temperatures and the occurrence of temperature extremes, under the influence of climate change, could further reduce the level of fertility in the Serbia-North region due to the specific seasonality of births and the large number of conceptions that occur during periods of particular temperature risk.Сезоналност рађања у Србији испољава такав образац да се највише деце рађа током касног лета и ране јесени, смештајући највећи део зачећа на преласку из једне у другу календарску годину, што није случај у региону Србија-север. Узимајући у обзир сезоналитет рађања покушаћемо да проценимо дистрибуцију зачећа на недељном нивоу током периода 2015-2020. Међутим, оно што би могло да представља посебан допринос овог рада јесте приказ варијација броја зачећа и рађања паралелно са варијацијама у просечној недељној температури ваздуха по управним областима у региону Србија–север. Однос између броја зачећа током календарске недеље са данима одређене просечне температуре ваздуха и живорођења која се након 30-42 недеље касније остваре, представља степен репродуктивног успеха указујући на ниво феталних губитака. Многе студије новијег датума указују да постоји висока корелација између просечне недељне температуре ваздуха и клинички нерегистрованих феталних губитака који се дешавају у најранијој фази трудноће. Овај утицај је највећи у првим данима након зачећа, потенцијално указујући на утицај пораста температуре ваздуха на појаву грешке у зачећу. У раду је анализирана веза између промена у броју дана у пет температурних опсега и промена у броју трудноћа и живорођења као позитивног исхода трудноће. Резултати указују да температурни екстреми смањују вероватноћу за позитиван репродуктивни исход. Очекивани пораст температура ваздуха и јављања температурних екстрема, под утицајем климатских промена, могли би додатно снизити ниво фертилитета у региону Србија-север услед специфичне сезоналности рађања и великог броја зачећа која се дешавају у периодима нарочитог температурног ризика
Functional transformation of settlements in coal exploitation zones: A case study of the municipality of Stanari in Republic of Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
No full textThis study explores how long-term surface coal
exploitation has affected the distribution of economic functions and contributed to hierarchical changes within the
settlement network of the municipality of Stanari. The aim
of this study is to contribute to a broader understanding of
the spatial consequences of intensive resource exploitation
on settlement systems. Using the case study of Stanari, the
analysis focuses on changes resulting from ongoing mining
activities. The most pronounced transformations occurred
in settlements near the mine, where exploitation led to
increased employment in industry and services, while
more distant settlements retained their functional type
with minor modifications. Centrality analysis indicates
shifts in the hierarchical position of settlements. The geographic information system was utilized as a key analytical
tool for spatial modeling and visualization of functional
transformations within the settlement network, providing
deeper insight into the spatial-functional changes caused
by coal exploitation. To assess future transformation, a
survey was conducted, examining the relationship between
place of residence and attitudes toward potential relocation
and employment. The results show a statistically significant
association between these decisions and respondents’ spatial affiliation, suggesting possible future changes in the
functional structure and hierarchy of the settlement network. The findings of this study offer a broader contribution
to the understanding of spatial and functional dynamics in
areas affected by intensive resource exploitation. They provide important insights for planning strategies aimed at
supporting the local population and guiding decisionmaking processes in Stanari and similar regions, which
may be valuable to local governments and relevant ministries, by informing spatial planning and management of
resource exploitation. Furthermore, the study highlights
the importance of employment dynamics and workforce
retention as critical factors for ensuring both demographic
and economic sustainability in areas affected by mininginduced transformations. The ultimate goal remains maintaining demographic stability and preserving the long-term
functional integrity of the settlement network
Геопросторно моделовање снежних лавина на Шар планини, Балканско полуострво
No full textSnow avalanches are among the most significant natural hazards worldwide in
high mountain areas. Mapping the spatial distribution of avalanches is one of the initial steps
in avalanche management. In this study, geospatial modeling was performed for the territory
of the Šar Mountains on a total area of 1602 km2. The first step in the research is to
collect data on past avalanche occurrences in Serbia and North Macedonia and create a database
in geographic information systems (GIS). The second step involves the application of
the SAFI–Flow-R method and the analysis of three natural and anthropogenic factors: snow
cover, terrain slope, and land use. The third step involves modeling (propagation) of avalanches
in the Flow-R 2.0 software package, and the creation of synthesis maps based on the
thickness of the triggered snow layer. Based on the law of friction and other software algorithms,
avalanche modeling was performed from the starting zone through the movement
zone to the accumulation zone. The results show that 26.6% of the area is susceptible to snow
avalanches, with a potentially triggered snow layer thickness of 50 cm. The fourth step is the
analysis and zoning of vulnerable settlements and the proposal of environmental protection
measures. The settlements susceptible to avalanches are Restelica, Brod, Mušnikovo, and
the ''Brezovica'' ski center in Serbia, while in North Macedonia, the settlements of Bozovce,
Vešala, and the ''Popova Šapka'' ski center are vulnerable. The results obtained may be useful
for decision-makers, national park managers, and mountain rescue services in Serbia and
North Macedonia in terms of adequate environmental management and adoption of protection
measures.Снежне лавине представљају један од најзначајнијих природних хазарда у високопланинским областима широм света. Израда карата просторне дистрибуције снежних лавина представља један од почетних корака у управљању снежним лавинама. У овој студији извршено је геопросторно моделовање за територију Шар планине на укупној површини од 1602 km2. Први корак у истраживању јесте прикупљање података о досадашњим појавама снежних лавина у Србији и Северној Македонији и формирање базе података у географским информационим системима (ГИС). Други корак подразумева примену SAFI–Flow-R методе и анализу три природна и антропогена фактора: снежни покривач, нагиб терена и намену земљишта. Трећи корак укључује моделовање, односно пропагацију снежних лавина у софтверском пакету Flow-R 2.0 и креирање синтезних карата на основу дебљине покренутог снежног слоја. Применом закона трења и других алгоритама у софтверу, извршено је моделовање лавина од стартне зоне, преко зоне кретања до зоне акумулације. Резултати показују да је 26.6% укупне површине угрожено лавинама, при чему је дебљина потенцијално покренутог снежног слоја 50 cm. Четврти корак представља анализу и зонирање угрожених насеља, као и предлог мера за заштиту животне средине. Угрожена насеља снежним лавинама су: Рестелица, Брод, Мушниково и ски центар ''Брезовица'' у Србији, док су у Северној Македонији рањива насеља Бозовце, Вешала и ски центар ''Попова Шапка''. Добијени резултати могу бити од користи доносиоцима одлука, управљачима националних паркова и горским службама спасавања у Србији и Северној Македонији за адекватно управљање животном средином и доношење мера заштите